FRED

Futures (ES, NQ, GC, CL) – 28 June 2017

28 June 2017

Daily status of the futures of Gold (GC), WTI Crude (CL), Nasdaq 100 (NQ) and S&P 500 (ES)

Futures (ES, NQ, GC, CL) – 27 June 2017

27 June 2017

Daily status of the futures of Gold (GC), WTI Crude (CL), Nasdaq 100 (NQ) and S&P 500 (ES)

Futures (ES, NQ, GC, CL) – 23 June 17

23 June 2017

Daily status of the futures of Gold (GC), WTI Crude (CL), Nasdaq 100 (NQ) and S&P 500 (ES)

Options – 18 December 15 Monthly Income – Bull PUT on SPX

Update

14 December 2015

We closed this CALL credit spread and bought it back for $0.05. Overall, it was a small profit to be redeployed for the next trade.

8 December 2015

We sold a monthly CALL credit spread at 2135/2145 for $1.10. The total Return-on-Risk for this new trade is 1.10/8.90 = 12.36 % excluding transaction cost. The PUT credit spread was closed for $1.75.

27 November 2015

We sold a monthly PUT credit spread at 2015/2005 for $1.15. The total Return-on-Risk for this new trade is 1.15/8.85 = 13.00 % excluding transaction cost. Expiration is at 9:30 am, 18 December 2015 (EST)

Options – 21 August 15 Monthly Income – Bull PUT on SPX

Update

21 August 2015

This PUT credit spread expired worthless. The Settlement price was 2015.47.

13 July 2015

We sold a monthly PUT credit spread at 1980/1970 for $1.30. The total Return-on-Risk for this new trade is 1.30/8.70 = 14.94 % excluding transaction cost. Expiration is at 9:30 am, 21 August 2015 (EST)

Options – 17 July 15 Monthly Income – Bull PUT on SPX

Update

13 July 2015

We closed this trade by buying it back for $0.05. Option expiration is this coming Friday morning.

15 June 2015

We sold a monthly PUT credit spread at 1980/1970 for $1.30. The total Return-on-Risk for this new trade is 1.30/8.70 = 14.94 % excluding transaction cost. Expiration is at 9:30 am, 17 July 2015 (EST)

Options – 18 June 15 Monthly Income – Bear Call on SPX

Update

5 June 2015

We closed this trade by buying it back for $0.05. Option expiration is another 2 weeks away.

18 May 2015

We sold a monthly CALL credit spread at 2185/2195 for $1.05. The total Return-on-Risk for this new trade is 1.05/8.95 = 11.7 % excluding transaction cost. Expiration is at 9:30 am, 19 June 2015 (EST)

29 April 2016 – Fallout from BoJ non-action, mixed earnings, market falls

The fallout from the Bank of Japan inaction on stimulus on Thursday carried onto Friday’s trading. The Nikkei lost 624.44 points to close at 16666.05 which was a 3.61% drop and that influenced trading in the US market on Friday. Mixed earnings in the tech sector has caused the Nasdaq 100 to fall and it is leading the market down. Silver is catching up to Gold and has broken out upward.

Crude oil is now in its own bull market. The market was previously correlated to the rise of crude oil price. Gold continues to perform and has broken out upward after being in a sideways action for the last two months.

The US dollar index continues to fall against the other major world currencies. Japanese Yen is the safe haven and that has caused it to rise against the other world currencies.

Junk bonds (HYG) has sent a BUY signal on its weekly chart. TLT which is the 20 year treasury bond is range trading on its weekly chart. One can only surmise that Junk bonds are doing well as funds are looking for yield in the current financial climate of low or negative interest rates.

Dow Transportation traded downward on market open till late afternoon before pulling back. It closed with a bearish candle below its 21 EMA. Pivot momentum has reversed downward. Daily volumetric buying pressure is at 64.2%.

On the weekly chart, the buying pressure is at 90.5% and it closed the week with a bearish candle on its weekly 50 SMA.

Dow Industrial traded downward on market open till late morning. It see-saw up and down before the pulling back to close with a hammer candle on its 21 EMA. Pivot momentum reverse downward. Short term volumetric buying pressure is at 98.7%.

On the weekly chart, the buying pressure is at 94.1% and it closed the week with a bearish candle above its weekly 8 EMA.

Russell 2000 traded downward on market open and bottomed by late morning. It range traded till late afternoon and had a small pullback to close on its 21 EMA and 200 SMA. Pivot momentum reversed downward. Volumetric buying pressure is at 83.3%.

On the weekly chart, the buying pressure is at 93.9%. It was unable to break above its weekly 50 SMA and closed with a bearish candle.

Nasdaq 100 traded downward in the first two hours of trading. It swung up and down as it grinded upward to close with a bearish spinning top doji candle below its 50 SMA. Pivot momentum has reversed downward. Volumetric buying pressure is at 75.3%. The Nasdaq 100 is in a monthly Squeeze.

On the weekly chart, the buying pressure is at 82.2%. It closed with a bearish candle below its 8EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA.

S&P 500 traded downward on market open and bottomed by late morning. It found some buyers in late morning trading and it was till the afternoon session that it made its move upward to close with a hammer candle. Volumetric buying pressure is at 87.3%. The S&P 500 is in a daily and monthly Squeeze.

On the weekly chart, the buying pressure is at 94.2%. It closed with a bearish engulfing candle above its 8 EMA. Weekly momentum has signaled downward.

Commodities
Oil (/CL) futures closed at $45.99 per barrel making a weekly gain of $2.24. Gold (/GC) futures closed at $1294.90 an ounce making a weekly gain of $61.2. Silver (/SI) futures closed at $17.890 an ounce which is a weekly gain of $0.905 an ounce. Commodities (DBC) ETF continues its upward trend and closed at 14.58 just below its 200 SMA. Agriculture (DBA) ETF closed at 21.08 and is trading sideways on its weekly chart.

Bonds
Junk bonds ETF (HYG) closed at 83.85 on its weekly 200 SMA. Bonds ETF (TLT) closed at 129.38 and pivot momentum is downward.

Currencies
USD/JPY made gains and closed at 106.33. EUR/USD sold off and closed at 1.1453. The dollar index (/DX) is at 93.025 and is Squeezing downward.

Relative Strength – Sectors
On a monthly lookback, the ETFs outperforming the S&P 500 are XLE, XLB, XLF, XLU, XLV, XLI and XLY respectively. Healthcare has moved down. Energy and basic material continue to outperform.

On a 3-month lookback, the relative strength order are XLE, XLB, XLF, XLY and XLI. Technology continues to sell off and make new low.

Market Internals
Vix closed at 15.70. Vix futures is at 16.875. Volatility has increased. Skew is at 126.49. Market sentiment is neutral. Market breadth has flattened. Volumetric accumulation/distribution has flattened as well.

The Week Ahead
The S&P 500 e-mini has made a gain of 302.75 points since its low of 1802.5 on 11 February 2016. It is a rather over-extended market. Earnings have been mixed so far.

Is the US economy improving or deteriorating? Certain sectors are now claiming that the US may already be in a recession. Recession indicator is a lagging indicator as it takes two negative quarters in economic growth for a pronouncement of recession.

The end of the bull market tends to be signaled by the number of M&A and share buyback. This has been so for the last 12 months. Financial engineering to boost growth figures mark the end when companies find it difficult to boost sales growth by normal means and hence the resort to share buybacks and company acquisitions.

This coming week, we will have some futures liquidation and non-farm payroll report. Selling pressure continues to weigh on the market in the midst of a below average earnings season. The US dollar plunge and the rise of the Japanese Yen also continue to the selling pressure for those that are in the carry trade.

The prognosis is that the market will continue to be under pressure and volatile for the coming week.

 

To YOUR wealth!

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