FRED

Futures (ES, NQ, GC, CL) – 28 June 2017

28 June 2017

Daily status of the futures of Gold (GC), WTI Crude (CL), Nasdaq 100 (NQ) and S&P 500 (ES)

Futures (ES, NQ, GC, CL) – 27 June 2017

27 June 2017

Daily status of the futures of Gold (GC), WTI Crude (CL), Nasdaq 100 (NQ) and S&P 500 (ES)

Futures (ES, NQ, GC, CL) – 23 June 17

23 June 2017

Daily status of the futures of Gold (GC), WTI Crude (CL), Nasdaq 100 (NQ) and S&P 500 (ES)

Options – 18 December 15 Monthly Income – Bull PUT on SPX

Update

14 December 2015

We closed this CALL credit spread and bought it back for $0.05. Overall, it was a small profit to be redeployed for the next trade.

8 December 2015

We sold a monthly CALL credit spread at 2135/2145 for $1.10. The total Return-on-Risk for this new trade is 1.10/8.90 = 12.36 % excluding transaction cost. The PUT credit spread was closed for $1.75.

27 November 2015

We sold a monthly PUT credit spread at 2015/2005 for $1.15. The total Return-on-Risk for this new trade is 1.15/8.85 = 13.00 % excluding transaction cost. Expiration is at 9:30 am, 18 December 2015 (EST)

Options – 21 August 15 Monthly Income – Bull PUT on SPX

Update

21 August 2015

This PUT credit spread expired worthless. The Settlement price was 2015.47.

13 July 2015

We sold a monthly PUT credit spread at 1980/1970 for $1.30. The total Return-on-Risk for this new trade is 1.30/8.70 = 14.94 % excluding transaction cost. Expiration is at 9:30 am, 21 August 2015 (EST)

Options – 17 July 15 Monthly Income – Bull PUT on SPX

Update

13 July 2015

We closed this trade by buying it back for $0.05. Option expiration is this coming Friday morning.

15 June 2015

We sold a monthly PUT credit spread at 1980/1970 for $1.30. The total Return-on-Risk for this new trade is 1.30/8.70 = 14.94 % excluding transaction cost. Expiration is at 9:30 am, 17 July 2015 (EST)

Options – 18 June 15 Monthly Income – Bear Call on SPX

Update

5 June 2015

We closed this trade by buying it back for $0.05. Option expiration is another 2 weeks away.

18 May 2015

We sold a monthly CALL credit spread at 2185/2195 for $1.05. The total Return-on-Risk for this new trade is 1.05/8.95 = 11.7 % excluding transaction cost. Expiration is at 9:30 am, 19 June 2015 (EST)

13 May 2016 – End of Earnings Season, Market Tumbles

Is this the beginning of the bear market? The earnings season has just about ended and it has been rather mixed if not awful. This is the third week where the indices has closed down for the week. Dow Transportation, Russell 2000 and Nasdaq 100 are now trading below the 50 SMA on their weekly charts. Only Dow Industrial and the S&P 500 are still above their weekly 50 SMA. Dow Transportation has been leading the market downwards and if current momentum persists, it will cross below its weekly 200 SMA rather soon. It could be a sign that we are heading for a bear market.

Economic Data
· Retail sales for April jumped 1.3% for the biggest gain in a year (and above estimates for a 0.8% increase)
· Producer price index rose 0.2% in April after two straight declines (but was below expectations for a 0.3% rise), but inflation at the wholesale level remained largely absent as the cost of services edged up 0.1% in April. Food prices fell 0.3%.
· Business Inventories for March rose 0.4% MoM, above estimates of 0.2% after falling 0.3% the prior month; Feb business inventories fell 0.1% MoM; wholesalers inventories rose 0.1% MoM in March after falling 0.6% prior month
· University of Michigan Confidence Sentiment rose to 95.8 in prelim reading (above est. 89.5) after the 89.0 prior month; the current economic conditions index rose to 108.6 from 106.7 last month and the expectations index rose to 87.5 from 77.6 last month.

Dow Transportation traded downward in the first hour after market open and then range traded till early afternoon. Selling then continued and it closed with a bearish candle. Momentum remains downward. Daily volumetric buying pressure is at 0%.

On the weekly chart, the buying pressure is at 74.8% and it closed the week with a bearish Marubozu candle below its weekly 50 SMA and 21 EMA. It is heading down to its 200 SMA.

Dow Industrial traded downward on market open and swung back up in the first two hours after market open. It then sold off and continued downward for the rest of the day and closed with a bearish Marubozu candle below its 50 SMA. Momentum remains downward. Short term volumetric buying pressure is at 36.8%.

On the weekly chart, the buying pressure is at 84.2% and it closed the week with an inverted hammer candle below its weekly 8 EMA.

Russell 2000 traded downward in the first hour after market open and then swung back up above its open till late morning. It sold off at midday and traded downward for the rest of the day and closed with a bearish candle below its 50 SMA. Momentum remains downward. Volumetric buying pressure is at 3.1%.

On the weekly chart, the buying pressure is at 82.1%. It closed below its weekly 50 SMA and on its 21 EMA with a bearish inverted hammer candle. Next target is 200 SMA.

Nasdaq 100 range traded after market open till midday before some sellers came in the afternoon session. It closed with a low closing spinning top doji candle below its 8 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Volumetric buying pressure is at 23.8%. The Nasdaq 100 is in a monthly Squeeze.

On the weekly chart, the buying pressure is at 75.8%. It closed with a small doji candle below its 8EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA.

S&P 500 traded downward in the first hour of trading and then swung back up to its open by late morning. It then sold off till late afternoon and closed with a bearish Marubozu candle below its 50 SMA. Volumetric buying pressure is at 42.4%. The S&P 500 is in a daily and monthly Squeeze.

On the weekly chart, the buying pressure is at 83.3%. It closed with a low closing spinning top doji candle below its 8 EMA. Next target down is the weekly 21 EMA and 50 SMA.

Commodities
Oil (/CL) futures closed at $46.37 per barrel above its weekly 50 SMA. WTI crude prices lost $0.49. Oil prices have gained lately on hopes of improving demand from China and decreasing inventory of 3M barrel by EIA.

Gold (/GC) futures closed at $1274.3 an ounce and is trading sideways. It lost for the week as dollar rebounded from 1-year lows. Money from the equity market continues to rotate into gold.

Silver (/SI) futures closed at $17.130 an ounce. Agriculture ETF (DBA) closed at 21.27 and is trying to break upwards. Commodities (DBC) ETF closed at 14.48 just below its weekly 50 SMA.

Bonds
Junk bonds ETF (HYG) closed at 82.78 below its weekly 50 SMA. Bonds ETF (TLT) closed at 132.28 making it the third week of gains. This coincide with the indices trading downward for the last three weeks. This appears to be a rotation in bond which is a safe haven when the equity market comes under selling pressure.

Currencies
USD/JPY closed at 108.63. EUR/USD sold off and closed at 1.1307. The dollar index (/DX) is at 94.610. The dollar has strengthened following strong data on monthly retail sales. This has allay fears of slowing economic growth.

Relative Strength – Sectors
On a monthly lookback, the ETFs outperforming the S&P 500 are XLU, XLE, XLP, XLK, XLB, XLV and XLF respectively. Utilities and Consumer Staples (XLP) have out-performed over the last month.

On a 3-month lookback, the relative strength order are XLE, XLB, XLF, XLY, XLI and XLU.

Market Internals
Vix closed at 15.04. Vix futures is at 15.875. Volatility has increased but not by much. Although the market has been trading downwards for the last three weeks, there is just a little increase in the Vix which is the fear index. Skew is at 121.46. Market sentiment has turned bearish. Market breadth is sloping downward. Volumetric accumulation/distribution is sloping downward as well.

The Week Ahead
There is a little increase in the Vix but the Vix futures is not pricing in big moves downward. The fear index may be telling us that the selling is limited. What does the market know? We could be in a range trading market for the week ahead.

Market breadth is trending downwards but still not a major concern. There is more distribution going on but there is no panic selling yet. The skew is telling us that the market is well hedged to the downward which explains why the Vix has not gone up.

The prognosis is that the market will continue to come under selling pressure for the coming week.

 

To YOUR wealth!

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