19 May 2016 – A tumble and a rebound

After the series of dojis from the previous day, the market decided to head down in anticipation of the rate hike in June. The fear index, Vix continues to head upwards. The bulls mounted a late afternoon rally and pushed the indices back upward and narrow the losses for the day. Oil had a yo-yo session and traded flat. Bonds partially recovered after sharp declines the previous day, the dollar continue to advance and commodities continue their slides.

Dow Transportation dropped on market open and treaded downward till late morning. It range traded and buyers came in midday and it grinded its way upward to close with a hammer candle below its 8 EMA. Momentum remains downward. Daily volumetric buying pressure is at 1.8%.

Dow Industrial traded downward in the first hour after market open and found support and range traded till late morning. Buyers came in and it grinded its way upward to close with with a hammer candle below its 8 EMA. Momentum remains downward. Short term volumetric buying pressure is at 12.5%. The index is in a monthly Squeeze.

Russell 2000 sold off on market open and traded sharply downward for the first two hours. Buyers came in late morning and it reversed sharply upward and closed below its 3 EMA. Momentum remains downward. Volumetric buying pressure is at 19.6%.

Nasdaq 100 dropped on market open and range traded till midday. Buyers came in and it grinded its way upward and closed with a hammer candle below its 3 EMA. Volumetric buying pressure is at 44%. The index is in a monthly Squeeze.

S&P 500 dropped sharply on market open and range traded till late morning. Buyers came in and it grinded its way upward to close with a hammer candle below its 3 EMA. Volumetric buying pressure is at 36.6%. The index is in a daily and monthly Squeeze.

Metals and Commodities
Oil (/CL) futures had a yo-yo day and fell initially as data showed a weekly increase in US crude stockpiles. It reversed and end the day at $49.05 per barrel. Oil prices continue its momentum upward.

Gold (/GC) futures made further losses and ended the day at $1256.9. Silver (/SI) futures is at 16.545 and exited its Squeeze downward.

Agriculture (DBA) ETF closed at 21.05. Commodities (DBC) ETF closed at 14.60.

Bonds
High Yield bond ETF (HYG) closed at 82.85 and continue trading sideways. Bonds ETF (TLT) made a slight gains and closed 130.05 on its 50 SMA.

Currencies
The dollar index continue to rally and is now above its 50 SMA at 95.3 EUR/USD is trading at 1.12031. USD/JPY is at 110.04.

Relative Strength – Sectors
On a monthly lookback, the ETFs outperforming the S&P 500 are XLE, XLU, XLP, XLF, XLB, XLK and XLY respectively.

On a 3-month lookback, the relative strength order are XLE, XLB, XLF and XLI.

Market Internals
Vix closed up at 16.33. Vix futures is at 17.80. Skew is at 123.66. Market sentiment continues its bearishness. Market breadth continues sloping downward. Volumetric accumulation/distribution is sloping downward as well. Deterioration in the fundamentals continues.

The Week Ahead
Market fundamentals continue to deteriorate hinting at worse are to come. The prognosis is that the selling pressure will continue to push the market lower.

To YOUR wealth!