FRED

Futures (ES, NQ, GC, CL) – 28 June 2017

28 June 2017

Daily status of the futures of Gold (GC), WTI Crude (CL), Nasdaq 100 (NQ) and S&P 500 (ES)

Futures (ES, NQ, GC, CL) – 27 June 2017

27 June 2017

Daily status of the futures of Gold (GC), WTI Crude (CL), Nasdaq 100 (NQ) and S&P 500 (ES)

Futures (ES, NQ, GC, CL) – 23 June 17

23 June 2017

Daily status of the futures of Gold (GC), WTI Crude (CL), Nasdaq 100 (NQ) and S&P 500 (ES)

Options – 18 December 15 Monthly Income – Bull PUT on SPX

Update

14 December 2015

We closed this CALL credit spread and bought it back for $0.05. Overall, it was a small profit to be redeployed for the next trade.

8 December 2015

We sold a monthly CALL credit spread at 2135/2145 for $1.10. The total Return-on-Risk for this new trade is 1.10/8.90 = 12.36 % excluding transaction cost. The PUT credit spread was closed for $1.75.

27 November 2015

We sold a monthly PUT credit spread at 2015/2005 for $1.15. The total Return-on-Risk for this new trade is 1.15/8.85 = 13.00 % excluding transaction cost. Expiration is at 9:30 am, 18 December 2015 (EST)

Options – 21 August 15 Monthly Income – Bull PUT on SPX

Update

21 August 2015

This PUT credit spread expired worthless. The Settlement price was 2015.47.

13 July 2015

We sold a monthly PUT credit spread at 1980/1970 for $1.30. The total Return-on-Risk for this new trade is 1.30/8.70 = 14.94 % excluding transaction cost. Expiration is at 9:30 am, 21 August 2015 (EST)

Options – 17 July 15 Monthly Income – Bull PUT on SPX

Update

13 July 2015

We closed this trade by buying it back for $0.05. Option expiration is this coming Friday morning.

15 June 2015

We sold a monthly PUT credit spread at 1980/1970 for $1.30. The total Return-on-Risk for this new trade is 1.30/8.70 = 14.94 % excluding transaction cost. Expiration is at 9:30 am, 17 July 2015 (EST)

Options – 18 June 15 Monthly Income – Bear Call on SPX

Update

5 June 2015

We closed this trade by buying it back for $0.05. Option expiration is another 2 weeks away.

18 May 2015

We sold a monthly CALL credit spread at 2185/2195 for $1.05. The total Return-on-Risk for this new trade is 1.05/8.95 = 11.7 % excluding transaction cost. Expiration is at 9:30 am, 19 June 2015 (EST)

10 June 2016 – Is this the start of the pullback?

Volatility spikes as the indices pulled back from making new highs. The pullback could have been caused by the start of the new futures contract. If that is the case, this pullback could be a coiled spring before making new highs.

The Brexit fears and FED will be a factor for the coming week. The FED is not expected to raise rate in June and probably anytime soon.

The following commentaries are based on the weekly charts.

Indices
Dow Transportation broke above its 50 SMA but was unable to close above it by the end of the week. It closed with a low closing spinning top doji weekly candle. Momentum remains upwards. Volumetric buying pressure is at 81.8%.

Dow Industrial is trading above all its weekly moving averages such as the 3 EMA, 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. It closed with a low closing spinning top doji candle. Momentum remains upward. Volumetric buying pressure is at 86.8%. The index is in a monthly Squeeze.

Russell 2000 is now trading above all its weekly moving averages (3 EMA, 8EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA). It closed with a big low closing doji candle above its 3 EMA. Volumetric buying pressure is at 87.9%. The index is in a monthly Squeeze.

Nasdaq 100 had a bearish week after the indecision doji in the previous week. It closed with a bearish “rolling pin” candle above its 8 EMA. Volumetric buying pressure is at 83.5%. The Nasdaq 100 is in a monthly Squeeze.

S&P 500 closed with a big low closing spinning top doji candle after the previous week’s indecision doji candle. It is another week of indecision and from the length of the candle, the coming week will be volatile. Volumetric buying pressure is at 89.9%. The S&P 500 has exited its daily Squeeze and is still in a monthly Squeeze.

Commodities
Oil (/CL) futures closed the week at $48.88 per barrel after trading above $51 per barrel in the middle of the week. It is still an uptrend on its weekly chart and painted a doji candle on the weekly chart. Buying pressure is at 84.7%.

Gold (/GC) futures closed for the week at $1276.3 an ounce with a big bullish ‘rolling pin’ candle after the previous week bullish harami candle pattern. Momentum remains upward. Volumetric buying pressure is at 59.7%

Silver (/SI) futures closed at $17.330 an ounce with a big bullish candle above its 3 EMA, 8 EMA and 21 EMA. Momentum remains upward. Volumetric buying pressure is at 100%.

Agriculture ETF (DBA) closed at 22.79 with a bullish marubozu candle above all its moving averages in a parabolic move upward. Momentum remains upward. Volumetric buying pressure is at 100%.

Commodities (DBC) ETF gapped up and closed at 15.36 with a bullish marubozu candle in a continuing uptrend. It is now trading above all its moving averages. Momentum remains upward. Volumetric buying pressure is at 100%.

Bonds
High Yield bonds ETF (HYG) closed at 83.83 with a low closing doji candle. It is still in an uptrend on its weekly chart. Momentum remains upward. Buying pressure is at 91.6%.

Bonds ETF (TLT) closed up for the week at 134.78 with a bullish candle in a continuing uptrend. It is also in a weekly and monthly Squeezes. Momentum remains upward and buying pressure at 100%.

Currencies
The dollar index closed at 94.735 with a bullish marubozu candle below all its moving averages. Momentum remains downward. Buying pressure is at 68.6%.

Relative Strength – Sectors
On a monthly lookback, the ETFs outperforming the S&P 500 are XLU, XLB, XLK, XLP, XLV and XLE respectively.

On a 3-month lookback, the relative strength order are XLE, XLB, XLV, XLU, XLF, XLI, XLK and XLP.

Market Internals
Vix shot up and closed at 17.03. Vix futures is at 17.525. Skew is at 133.67. Market sentiment is slightly bearish. Market breadth has now flattened. Volumetric accumulation/distribution has flattened as well.

The Week Ahead
The turnaround at the end of the week coincided with the start of the new e-mini futures contract. The uptrend remains intact as this is likely to be a profit taking exercise. The candle pattern is telling us that another week of negative closes are likely in the indices. The prognosis is to expect further volatility this coming week.

 

To YOUR wealth!

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