15 June 2016 – A day full of promises

The indices grinded upward till the last half hour of the day when massive selling took place. The indices closed with a low closing doji candles for the day. The Fed kept the market confused with their latest pronouncement and it looks like there will be only one rate hike in 2016. The S&P 500 extended its losses for the fifth day. Bonds gained, the dollar index slipped and oil was down again. We have quadruple witching Options expiration Friday and the referendum known as the Brexit next week.

Dow Transportation traded upward and reached its high of the day in the first two hours of trading. It range traded till mid-afternoon when slow selling crept in and closed with a low closing doji candle. Momentum is downward. Daily volumetric buying pressure is at 25.7%.

Dow Industrial traded upward in the first hour of trading and proceeded to range trade till late in the day. It sold off sharply in the last half hour of trading and closed with a bearish inverted hammer candle. Momentum is downward. Short term volumetric buying pressure is at 32%. The index is in a monthly Squeeze.

Russell 2000 rallied upward in the first two hours of trading and range traded till the afternoon. It sold off sharply it the last thirty minutes of the day to close with a low closing doji candle. Momentum remains upward. Volumetric buying pressure is at 17.8%.

Nasdaq 100 traded indecisively throughout the day. It had a sharp sell-off in the last half hour and closed with a bearish candle on its 200 SMA. Momentum is downward. Volumetric buying pressure is at 56.6%. The index is in a monthly Squeeze.

S&P 500 range traded throughout most of the day and had a sharp sell-off in the last half hour of trading. It closed with an inverted hammer candle below its 50 SMA. Momentum is downward. Volumetric buying pressure is at 52.8%. The index is in a monthly Squeeze.

Metals and Commodities
Oil (/CL) futures traded down to $47.55 per barrel and it is in a daily Squeeze. Gold (/GC) futures spiked up to $1302.9 per ounce. Silver (/SI) futures is at 17.745 per ounce and is above its 3 EMA and the other moving averages.

Agriculture (DBA) ETF closed at 22.66. Commodities (DBC) ETF closed at 15.18. Both ETFs are trading sideway but the uptrend remains.

Bonds
High Yield bond ETF (HYG) closed at 83.03. Bonds ETF (TLT) closed at 135.80. Bonds continue its uptrend.

Currencies
The dollar index is at 94.575. EUR/USD is trading at 1.12732. USD/JPY is at 105.731.

Relative Strength – Sectors
On a monthly lookback, the ETFs outperforming the S&P 500 are XLU, XLP, XLE, XLB, XLK, XLV and XLI respectively.

On a 3-month lookback, the relative strength order are XLE, XLU, XLV, XLB, XLP, XLK, XLF and XLI are outperforming the S&P 500.

Market Internals
Vix closed at 20.14. Vix futures is at 20.55. Skew is at 140.91. Market sentiment is neutral. Market breadth is flattening. Volumetric accumulation/distribution continues to slope downward.

The Week Ahead
Confusion with the FED and Brexit fears continue to dominate daily trading activities. Investors are taking precautionary action by reducing their equity exposure. The prognosis is that the volatility continues.

To YOUR wealth!