11 August 2016 – No fear, new highs

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 reached new all-time highs while oil jumped over 4%. Macy reported good earnings and that brought up a few retails and consumer discretionary stocks. Vix is below 12 and there is no fear in the market. Gold and silver traded sideways and the dollar index is sideways as well. Bonds dropped as money rotated into equities.

Dow Transportation traded indecisively on market open before rallying upward. It pulled back in the last hour and closed with a small marubozu candle above all its moving averages. Momentum is upward. Daily volumetric buying pressure is at 44.6%. The index is in a weekly Squeeze.

Dow Industrial had a small gap up and traded upward till mid-day. It range traded till and closed with a bullish marubozu candle above all its moving averages. Momentum remains upward. Short term volumetric buying pressure is at 99.2%. The index is in a monthly Squeeze.

Russell 2000 traded down in the first half hour after market open before rallying upward till midday. It range traded till end of the day and closed with a bullish marubozu candle above all its moving averages. Momentum remains upward. Volumetric buying pressure is at 81.6%.

Nasdaq 100 traded upward in the first twenty minutes made new high of 4813.36. It sold off in the following half hour before recovering and range traded for the rest of the day to close with a small doji candle above all its moving averages. Momentum remains upward. Volumetric buying pressure is at 99.9%. The index is in a monthly Squeeze.

S&P 500 traded indecisively for the first half hour before rallying upward and made new high of 2188.45 near the end of the day. It closed with a bullish marubozu candle above all its moving averages. Momentum remains upward. Volumetric buying pressure is at 99.1%. The index is still in a daily and monthly Squeeze.

Metals and Commodities
Oil (/CL) futures gained over 4% and is trading at $43.62 per barrel. Gold (/GC) futures had a small loss and is trading $1345.6 per ounce. Silver (/SI) futures traded slightly down and is trading at 20.005 per ounce.

Agriculture (DBA) ETF closed lower at 20.62. Commodities (DBC) ETF closed higher at 14.45.

Bonds
High Yield bond ETF (HYG) traded higher and closed with a doji candle at 86.24. Bonds ETF (TLT) traded lower and closed at 138.91. It is in a daily Squeeze.

Currencies
The dollar index was higher at 95.910. EUR/USD lost ground and is trading at 1.11358. USD/JPY is down at 102.155.

Relative Strength – Sectors
On a monthly lookback, the ETFs outperforming the S&P 500 are XLE, XLK, XLF, XLI, XLY and XLB respectively.

On a 3-month lookback, the relative strength order are XLK, XLF, XLI, XLB, XLY and XLV are outperforming the S&P 500.

Market Internals
Vix closed at 11.68. Vix futures is at 12.64. Skew is at 131.28. Market sentiment is bullish. Market breadth is flat. Volumetric accumulation/distribution is sloping upward as well.

The Week Ahead
The market internals remain strong and Vix and Vix futures remain low which tells us there is no fear in the market. The prognosis is that of a strong market with upward bias.

Stock of the Day
KTOS is our pick of the day. It is a technology company in the defense sector.

To YOUR wealth!