10 October 2016 – New high in Nasdaq, is this a breakout?

Nasdaq 100 made new all-time high of 4904.72 on Columbus Day and the other indices were running with the bulls. Oil surged above $51 and lead the indices upward. Bond markets were closed due to the holiday.

Gold and Silver made slight gains.

Dow Transportation shot up on market open and then grinded upward for the rest of the day. It closed with a bullish marubozu candle above all its moving averages in a trend reversal candle pattern. Momentum remains upward. Volumetric buying pressure is at 100%. The index is in a monthly Squeeze.

Dow Industrial shot up on market open and then held its high till late morning. It was unable to breach its 50 SMA and pulled back and closed above its 21 EMA. Short term volumetric buying pressure is at 99.9%. The index is in a daily and monthly Squeeze.

Russell 2000 shot up on market open and held its days high. It closed with a bullish marubozu candle above its moving averages. Momentum remains upward. Volumetric buying pressure is at 66.5%.

Nasdaq 100 shot up on market open for most of the day. It pulled back towards the close with a small inverted bullish hammer candle above its moving averages. Momentum remains upward. Volumetric buying pressure is at 100%. The index is in a monthly Squeeze.

S&P 500 shot up on market open and held its high till late morning. It was unable to breach its 50 SMA and pulled back towards the close with a small inverted hammer candle. Momentum is sideways. Volumetric buying pressure is at 97.3%. The index is in a daily and monthly Squeeze.

Metals and Commodities
WTI Crude oil futures closed with a big bullish candle and is trading $51.26. It is now in a sharp uptrend.

Gold futures is trading at $1258.3 per ounce and has found support on its 200 SMA. Momentum is downward.

Silver futures is trading at $17.650 per ounce in quiet trading.

Agriculture (DBA) ETF closed at 20.00 below its 8 EMA and 21 EMA and continued its downtrend.

Commodities (DBC) ETF closed at 15.35 above its moving averages and continue its sharp uptrend.

Bonds
High Yield bond ETF (HYG) closed at 87.40 with a bullish candle above its moving averages. Momentum remains upward.

Bonds ETF (TLT) gapped down at 133.13 and closed below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. It is in a sharp downtrend.

Currencies
The dollar index is at 96.985 and is in a sharp uptrend after exiting its Squeeze upwards.

EUR/USD is trading at 1.11329 and is in a sharp downtrend. It is now below all its moving averages.

USD/JPY is trading at 103.923 and is trading above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. The uptrend continues.

Relative Strength – Sectors
On a monthly lookback, the relative strength order of the ETFs that are outperforming the S&P 500 are XLE, XLK, XLF and XLY respectively.

On a 3-month lookback, the relative strength order of the ETFs that are outperforming the S&P 500 are XLE, XLK, XLF and XLY.

The bull market is not over when the technology and industrial sector are still outperforming the S&P 500. We will have to watch out for the defensive sectors such as Utilities and Consumer Staples for sign of a turn in the market.

Market Internals
Vix closed at 13.38. Vix futures is at 14.67 and has formed a Squeeze. Skew is at 123.84. Market sentiment is bullish. Market breadth is sloping downward. Volumetric accumulation/distribution is sloping downward.

The Week Ahead
Nasdaq 100 made new all-time high showing that the bulls are very much alive in a day of lower volume trading. Market internals are showing a weakening over the last two months. The S&P 500 is unable to break above its 50 SMA which represent its upper resistance. The prognosis is to be cautious in this market due to a weakening in the market internals.

Stock of the Day
The Stock of the Day is XOM. Exxon Mobil is engaged in the exploration and production of crude oil and natural gas, manufacturing of petroleum products and transportation and sale of crude oil, natural gas and petroleum products.
To YOUR wealth!