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11 November 2016 – Weekly Review – Market and the Trump Presidency


This is the week that saw Donald Trump became the President-elect and it also show that the polls got it rather wrong about his chances. It is also a week of huge candles in the indices when it sold off when the results pointed toward a Trump Presidency. It was a time of opportunity for savvy traders to profit from the volatility. The Dow Jones Industrial made historic high on Thursday after the election. Gold and Oil plunged during the week. Bonds plunged as well as interest rates are expected to increase. It was reported that Stan Druckenmiller sold off his gold holdings and shorted bonds in anticipation of the interest rates hike.

Tom DeMark sees the S&P 500 topping out at 2213 before selling off and might go into a correction. Yields on the 10-year bond is forecasted to top out at 2.15%.

Dow Transportation probed for the bottom in the first hour of trading and then pushed upward till the end of the day to close with a small bullish marubozu candle. The uptrend is rather steep. Volumetric buying pressure is at 100%.

On its weekly chart, it painted a big bullish marubozu candle above its moving averages. The index is in a monthly Squeeze.

Dow Industrial was volatiled on market open and probed for its bottom in mid-morning trading. It rallied upward after mid-morning till the end of the day and closed witha bullish candle above its moving averages. Momentum is upward. Short term volumetric buying pressure is at 100%. The index is in a weekly and monthly Squeeze.

On its weekly chart, it closed with a big bullish marubozu candle above its moving averages.

Russell 2000 surged upward on market open and continued trading upward till the end of the day. It closed with a big bullish marubozu candle in a sharp uptrend above its moving averages. Momentum is upward. Volumetric buying pressure is at 100%.

On its weekly chart, it closed with a huge bullish candle above all its moving averages. Momentum is upward.

Nasdaq 100 was volatile in the first two hours of trading. It traded upward in late morning and then range traded till the end of the day. It closed with a bullish candle below its moving averages. Volumetric buying pressure is at 78.6%. The index is in a monthly Squeeze.

On its weekly chart, it closed with a low closing spinning top doji candle above its 21 EMA. Momentum is upward.

S&P 500 was volatile throughout the day and closed with a high closing doji candle above its moving averages. It closed with high closing doji candle above its moving averages. Momentum is upward. Volumetric buying pressure is at 100%. It is in a weekly and monthly Squeeze.

On its weekly chart, it closed with a big bullish marubozu candle above its 21 EMA.

Metals and Commodities (Weekly charts)
WTI Crude oil futures closed at $43.12 with a bearish candle below its 21 EMA and straddle its 200 SMA.

Gold futures closed at $1227.4 per ounce with a big bearish candle below its 50 and 200 SMA.

Silver futures closed at $17.365 per ounce with a bearish candle below its 21 EMA.

Agriculture (DBA) ETF closed at 20.18 with a bearish candle below its 21 EMA. It remains in a downtrend.

Commodities (DBC) ETF closed at 14.41 with a bearish candle below its 21 EMA.

Bonds (Weekly charts)
Bond futures (/ZB) closed at 155’11 with a big bearish candle below its moving averages. Momentum is downward.

High Yield bond ETF (HYG) closed at $83.47 with a big bearish marubozu candle below its 21 EMA but above its 50 SMA.

Bonds ETF (TLT) closed at 122.04 with a huge bearish candle below its 50 SMA and just above its 200 SMA. Momentum is downward.

Currencies (Weekly charts)
The dollar index closed at 98.970 with a big bullish marubozu candle above its 21 EMA. It has exited its weekly Squeeze but still in a monthly Squeeze.

EUR/USD closed at 1.08585 with a big bearish candle below its 21 EMA.

USD/JPY closed at 106.669 with a big bullish candle below its 21 EMA. Momentum is neutral.

Relative Strength – Sectors
On a monthly lookback, the relative strength order of the ETFs that are outperforming the S&P 500 are XLF, XLI, XLV, XLB and XLY respectively.

On a 3-monthly lookback, the relative strength order of the ETFs that are outperforming the S&P 500 are XLF, XLI, XLV, XLB, XLE and XLY respectively.

Market Internals
Vix closed at 14.17. Vix futures is at 14.925. Skew is at 121.71. Market sentiment is about neutral. Market breadth is flat. Volumetric accumulation/distribution is upward.

The Week Ahead
Market internals are quite neutral. The prognosis is for the market to catch a breather and for the next piece of good news for it to move higher.

Stock of the Day
The Stock of the Day is TROX. Tronox is engaged in the production and marketing of titanium bearing mineral sands and titanium dioxide pigment.

 

To YOUR wealth!

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