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15 December 2016 – The day after FOMC

The market has priced in the FED interest rate hike and the indices are back up. The bulls could not wait to pile into stocks and that is what we saw, stocks are largely higher. Financials led today’s gains and banking and insurance stocks extended gains. The indices made slight gains and the US dollar index surge. The next earnings will be interesting as the surge in the US dollar will have big impact on their earnings.

WTI crude oil futures traded within a small range and closed at $50.09 per barrel. There is new futures contract and it has gapped up. Gold futures continued its downward and is trading at 1133.10. It is inversely correlated to the US dollar index. With the US Dollar index continuing upward, we can expect gold to keep trending down for some time yet.

The US Dollar gapped up and continued its sharp upward trend. It is in a fresh 13-year high of 103.56 as it continues to surge against the other currencies such as the Yen and Euro.

Treasury bond futures made slight gain but the overall trend is downward. The 10-year yield remained around 2.57%. As bonds continued its sell-off, the yield keeps improving.

Dow Transportation traded upward till late morning before pulling back through the day. It closed with a small doji candle on its 8 EMA. Momentum remains upward. Volumetric buying pressure is at 23.5%. The index has exited its monthly Squeeze.

Dow Industrial traded upward till late morning before pulling back throughout the day. It closed with a small doji candle above its moving averages. Momentum remains upward. Short term volumetric buying pressure is at 92.4%. It has exited its monthly Squeeze.

Russell 2000 rallied on market open and touched its high of the day by late morning. It then had a gradual pullback till the end of the day and closed on its 8 EMA. Momentum is upward. Volumetric buying pressure is at 48.1%.

Nasdaq 100 traded upward till late morning and pulled back slightly by mid-afternoon. It suffered a sudden drop at late afternoon and closed with a small inverted hammer candle. Momentum is upward. Volumetric buying pressure is at 93.7%. The index is in a weekly and monthly Squeeze.

S&P 500 traded sharply upward on market open and then range traded till mid-afternoon. It pulled back till the end of the day and closed with a small bullish candle above its 8 EMA. Momentum is upward. Volumetric buying pressure is at 93.9%. The index has exited its monthly Squeeze.

Metals and Commodities
WTI Crude oil futures traded indecisively and closed with a small doji candle on its 8 EMA. It closed at $50.90 per barrel.

Gold futures continue to trade downwards and is trading at $1132.6 per ounce.

Silver futures suffered a big drop and is now trading at $16.065 per ounce. It is in a Squeeze.

Agriculture (DBA) ETF gapped down but traded upward and closed on its 21 EMA at 20.01.

Commodities (DBC) ETF gapped down but traded upward and closed with a bullish candle at 15.57.

Bonds
Bond futures (ZB) traded slightly upward and is trading at 148’11.

High Yield bond ETF (HYG) made slight gain and closed at 85.97 sandwich between its 21 EMA and 50 SMA.

Bonds ETF (TLT) ranged traded and closed with a small doji candle at 117.41. Momentum is downward.

Currencies
The dollar index gapped up and closed with a bullish candle above it moving averages at 103.035. It has exited its Squeeze.

EUR/USD closed with a bearish candle and continued on its downtrend. It is trading at 1.04315 and has exited its Squeeze.

USD/JPY continued on its sharp uptrend and closed with a bullish candle. It is trading at 118.183 above its moving averages.

Relative Strength – Sectors
On a monthly lookback, the relative strength order of the ETFs that are outperforming the S&P 500 are XLE, XLF, XLK, XLB, XLU and XLY respectively.

On a 3-month lookback, the relative strength order of the ETFs that are outperforming the S&P 500 are XLF, XLE, XLI, XLB and XLY respectively.

Market Internals
Vix closed at 12.79. Vix futures is at 13.10. Skew is at 129.44. Market sentiment is extremely bullish. Market breadth has flattened. Volumetric accumulation/distribution is sloping slightly upward.

The Week Ahead
With the announcement by the FOMC of the rise in rate and the slight pullback yesterday, the market is signalling it is ready to move upward again. Market internal continues to show strength. The prognosis is for this market to continue to new all-time highs.

Stock of the Day
The Stock of the Day is MITK. Mitek Systems, Inc. develops, markets and sells mobile capture and identity verification software solutions for enterprise customers.

 

To YOUR wealth!

Would you like to learn to trade stocks, options or futures? Drop us an email at jefftohch@gmail.com or call +6010 4343 948.


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