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23 December 2016 – Merry Christmas!


The indices ended the week largely where it started. The Dow Industrial and Nasdaq 100 made new all-time high during the week. Stocks traded into the weekend quietly and overall, the indices uptrend remains intact. The Dow Industrial is still within reach before the end of the year. The indices did pull back in the last two day of trading.

The dollar index ended the week with a doji at 102.950. It hit a high of 103.625 and is set to go higher. This will have a big impact on the price of gold. Gold futures ended the week with a doji as well at 1135.2.

WTI crude oil futures ended the week at 53.25 per barrel with a doji candle. Treasury bond futures made slight gain for the week but is still in a sharp downtrend.

There was a terrorist event in Berlin, Germany involving a truck that was used as a weapon at a Christmas market. The Russian ambassador to Turkey was assassinated in Ankara. The president-elect has been tweeting and it is likely that the next black swan event may happen with a tweet.

Indices (Weekly chart)
Dow Transportation closed with a low closing doji candle at 9190.64. Weekly volumetric buying pressure is at 28.9%. It has been over bought on its weekly chart.

Dow Industrial closed with a small bullish candle at 19933.81. It hit an all-time high of 19987.63 during the week. The 20,000 level is the next target and within reach next week. Momentum is sharply upward. Weekly volumetric buying pressure is at 98.2%. It is overbought on its weekly chart.

Russell 2000 closed the week with a low closing spinning top doji above its moving averages at 1371.51. Momentum is sharply upward. Volumetric buying pressure is at 69.9%.

Nasdaq 100 closed with a small bullish candle above its moving averages at 4940.0235. It hit an all time high of 4963 during the week. Volumetric buying pressure is at 90.6%. The index is in a weekly and monthly Squeeze.

S&P 500 closed with a small spinning top doji candle above its moving averages at 2263.79. Momentum is still sharply upward. Volumetric buying pressure is at 90.4%.

Metals and Commodities (Weekly charts)
WTI Crude oil futures closed with a spinning top doji above its moving averages at $53.25 per barrel. Oil looks set to keep above $50 per barrel.

Gold futures closed with a doji candle below its moving averages at $1135.2 per ounce in a continuing sharp downtrend.

Silver futures closed with a bearish ‘rolling pin’ candle below its moving averages in a continuing downtrend.

Agriculture (DBA) ETF closed with a bearish candle at 19.75 and below its moving averages. It is in a weekly and monthly Squeeze.

Commodities (DBC) ETF closed with a small bearish candle above its moving averages at 15.54.

Bonds (Weekly charts)
Bond futures (/ZB) closed with a bullish marubozu candle above its 200 SMA at 149′. Momentum is sharply downward.

High Yield bond ETF (HYG) closed with a bullish candle above its moving averages at 86.60.

Bonds ETF (TLT) closed with a closing doji candle at 118.05 below its moving averages in a sharp downtrend.

Currencies (Weekly charts)
The dollar index closed with a spinning top doji candle at 102.950 above its moving averages. It continues its sharp uptrend.

EUR/USD closed with a spinning top doji candle below its moving averages. Momentum is downward.

USD/JPY closed with a bearish candle above its moving averages at 117.342 in a sharp uptrend.

Relative Strength – Sectors
On a monthly lookback, the relative strength order of the ETFs that are outperforming the S&P 500 are XLE, XLF, XLK, XLU, XLP and XLV respectively.

On a 3-monthly lookback, the relative strength order of the ETFs that are outperforming the S&P 500 are XLF, XLE, XLI and XLB respectively.

Market Internals
Vix closed at 11.44. Vix futures is at 14.275. Skew is at 120.51. Market sentiment is slightly bullish. Market breadth is sloping upward. Volumetric accumulation/distribution is sloping downward.

The Week Ahead
Market continue to show strength and Vix is below 12 which shows that there is no fear in the market. The prognosis is for the market to hold going into the end of the year.

Stock of the Day
The Stock of the Day is AGN. Allergan is a specialty pharmaceutical company. The company is engaged in the development, manufacturing, marketing and distribution of pharmaceutical products, medical aesthetics, biosimilar and over-the-counter pharmaceutical products.

 

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