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29 December 2016 – Breakout in Gold?

The indices pulled back slightly as volume continues to drop. The light selling is likely to be related to tax loss harvesting which is a year end occurrence when traders sell off their loss making equities. The indices are just a short distance from their all-time highs heading into the new year.

WTI crude oil futures traded within the $53 per barrel range. Gold futures continue its short term uptrend.

Dollar index broke down below its downfractal support. EUR/USD broke above its upfractal resistance.

Bond futures continued its uptrend and has yet to break above its upfractal resistance.

On the economic front, jobless claims declined by 10,000 to 265,000.

Dow Transportation attempted to rally in the first few minutes of trading but was sold down. It closed with a tiny doji candle at 9085.14 below its 21 EMA. Daily trading range was 88.93. Momentum remains upward. Volumetric buying pressure is at 0%.

Dow Industrial attempted to rally on market open but was sold down immediately. It closed with a tiny doji candle at 19819.78 just below its 8 EMA. Daily trading range was 89.5. Momentum remains upward. Short term volumetric buying pressure is at 57.2%.

Russell 2000 traded upward in the first hour before selling off. It closed with a doji candle above its 21 EMA. Daily trading range was at 10.054. Momentum is upward. Volumetric buying pressure is at 11.8%.

Nasdaq 100 sold off on market open and closed with a small doji candle above its 21 EMA. Daily trading range was at 30.429. Momentum is upward. Volumetric buying pressure is at 73.8%. . The index is in a weekly and monthly Squeeze.

S&P 500 probed for its high of the day in the first 10 minutes before selling off. It closed with a doji candle above its 21 EMA at 2249.26. Daily trading range was 9.95. Momentum is upward. Volumetric buying pressure is at 85.9%.

Metals and Commodities
WTI Crude oil futures closed with a tiny doji candle above its moving averages in an uptrend. It is trading at $53.94 per barrel.

Gold futures closed on its 21 EMA with a small bullish marubozu candle. It is trading at 1161.3 per ounce.

Silver futures made small gains and is trading at $16.260 per ounce above its 8 EMA.

Agriculture (DBA) ETF traded with rather light volume and tiny range. It closed on its 8 EMA at 19.95.

Commodities (DBC) ETF closed with a tiny doji candle above its moving averages at 15.81. It is in a Squeeze.

Bonds
Bond futures (ZB) closed higher on its 21 EMA at 150’01. It is in a Squeeze.

High Yield bond ETF (HYG) traded sideways and closed on its 8 EMA at 86.52.

Bonds ETF (TLT) closed higher above its 8 EMA at 118.95.

Currencies
The dollar index pulled back slightly to below its 8 EMA. It is at 102.275.

EUR/USD spiked upward but has pulled back to 1.05461.

USD/JPY pulled back to below its 8 EMA at 116.300.

Relative Strength – Sectors
On a monthly lookback, the relative strength order of the ETFs that are outperforming the S&P 500 are XLU, XLK, XLP, XLF, XLV and XLE respectively.

On a 3-month lookback, the relative strength order of the ETFs that are outperforming the S&P 500 are XLF, XLE, XLI and XLB respectively.

Market Internals
Vix closed higher at 13.37. Vix futures is at 14.85. Skew is at 124.57. Market sentiment is bullish. Market breadth is sloping downward. Volumetric accumulation/distribution is sloping downward.

The Week Ahead
The indices continued to pull back but this should be a short-term tax loss harvesting. Market internals is turning down and Vix has gone up slightly. The prognosis is for a pullback over the next couple of days due to year-end tax loss selling.

Stock of the Day
The Stock of the Day is AGN. Allergan plc is a specialty company. The Company is engaged in the development, manufacturing, marketing and distribution of pharmaceutical products, medical aesthetics, biosimilar and over-the-counter (OTC) pharmaceutical products.

 

To YOUR wealth!

Would you like to learn to trade stocks, options or futures? Drop us an email at jefftohch@gmail.com or call +6010 4343 948.


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