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11 July 2018 – Mixed market signals

Indices
Dow Transportation closed at 10442.47 with a big bearish marubozu candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 201.27. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling slope. Short Term Cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction – Buy. It is in a weekly Squeeze.

Dow Industrial closed at 24700.45 with a bearish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 151.34. Intermediate Cycle is negative and rising slope. Short Cycle is positive and rising slope. Market direction – Buy. It is in a weekly Squeeze.

Russell 2000 closed at 1683.6619 with a bearish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 12.92. Intermediate Cycle is positive and falling slope. Short Cycle is positive and falling slope. Market direction: Buy.

Nasdaq 100 closed at 7243.9798 with a small inverted hammer candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 50.894. Intermediate Cycle is positive and rising slope. Short Cycle is positive and falling slope. Market direction: Buy.

S&P 500 gapped down and closed at 2774.02 with a small spinning top doji candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 15.14. Intermediate Cycle is positive and rising slope. Short Cycle is positive and falling slope. Market direction: Buy.

Metals and Commodities
WTI Crude oil futures (CL) closed at $70.61 per barrel with a big bearish marubozu candle below its 8 EMA and above its 21 EMA and above its 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 4.24. Intermediate Cycle is positive and falling slope. Short Cycle is positive and falling slope. Market direction: Sell.

Gold futures (GC) closed at 1241.8 with a bearish marubozu candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 15.6. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling slope. Short Cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction: Sell.

Agriculture (DBA) ETF closed at 17.28 with a bearish marubozu candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.32. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling slope. Short Cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction: Sell.

Commodities (DBC) ETF closed at 16.91 with a big bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.555. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling slope. Short Cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction: Sell.

Bonds
Bond futures (/ZB) closed at 145’10 with a doji candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.6562. Intermediate Cycle is positive and falling slope. Short Cycle is positive and falling slope. Market direction: Neutral.

High Yield bond ETF (HYG) gapped up and closed at 85.34 with a small spinning top doji candle on its 8 EMA and below its 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.15. Intermediate Cycle is negative and rising slope. Short Cycle is negative and rising slope. Market direction: Buy. It is in a weekly Squeeze.

Currency
The dollar index ($DXY) closed at 94.718 with a bullish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.678. Intermediate Cycle is positive and rising slope. Short Cycle is positive and rising slope. Market direction: Buy.

EUR/USD closed at 1.1672 with a bearish candle above its 8 EMA and 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.0072. Intermediate Cycle is negative and rising slope. Short Cycle is positive and falling slope. Market direction: Neutral.

USD/JPY closed at 111.99 with a big bullish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.466. Intermediate Cycle is positive and rising slope. Short Cycle is positive and rising slope. It is in a daily Squeeze. Market direction: Buy.

6S(Swiss Franc) – closed at 1.0097 with a bearish candle intertwined with its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.0062. Intermediate Cycle is negative and flat. Short Cycle is negative and flat. Market direction: Neutral. It is in a weekly Squeeze.

Relative Strength – Sectors</b On a monthly lookback, the relative strength order of the ETFs that are outperforming the S&P 500 are XLU, XLV, XLK, XLP, XLE AND XLY.

On a 3-monthly lookback, the relative strength order of the ETFs that are outperforming the S&P 500 are XLK, XLY, XLV, XLU, XLP and XLE respectively.

Market Internals
Market sentiment is neutral. Market breadth is sloping upwards showing more gainers to losers. Accumulation/ Distribution is sloping upwards showing nett accumulation. Skew is at 136.85. Vix is at 13.63 and Vix futures is at 13.88.

The Week Ahead</b3
Market internals continue to show strength. Vix has gone up and Vix futures has come down. This indicates that current and near term volatility is expected to drag on. Skew is normal. The prognosis is continued volatility.

Futures Summary(Daily chart):
ES – Intermediate Cycle – Positive/Rising. Current – Positive/Falling. Market direction – Buy. Weekly Squeeze.
NQ – Intermediate Cycle – Positive/Rising. Current – Positive/Falling. Market direction – Buy.
YM – Intermediate Cycle – Negative/Rising. Current – Positive/Rising. Market direction – Buy. Weekly Squeeze.
GC – Intermediate Cycle – Negative/Falling. Current – Negative/Falling. Market direction – Sell.
CL – Intermediate Cycle – Positive/Falling. Current – Positive/Falling. Market direction – Sell.

To YOUR wealth!

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