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31 October 2018 – Another up day in a down trend

Indices
Dow Transportation closed at 10191.18 with a bearish inverted hammer candle on its 8 EMA and below its 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 194.74. Intermediate Cycle is negative and rising slope. Short Term Cycle is negative and rising slope. Market direction – Sell. Fractal Bias – Bearish.

Dow Industrial gapped up and closed at 25115.76 with a bullish inverted hammer candle above its 8 EMA and below its 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 461.91. Intermediate Cycle is negative and rising slope. Short Term Cycle is negative and rising slope. Market direction – Sell. Fractal Bias – Bearish.

Russell 2000 closed at 1511.4127 with an inverted hammer candle on its 8 EMA and below its 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 19.695. Intermediate Cycle is negative and rising. Short Cycle is negative and rising. Market direction: Sell. Fractal Bias – Bearish.

Nasdaq 100 gapped up and closed at 6967.0957 with an inverted hammer candle above its 8 EMA and below its 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 220.386. Intermediate Cycle is negative and rising slope. Short Cycle is negative and rising slope. Market direction: Sell. Fractal Bias – Bearish.

S&P 500 closed at 2711.74 with an inverted hammer candle above its 8 EMA and below its 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 54.06. Intermediate Cycle is negative and rising slope. Short Cycle is negative and rising slope. Market direction: Sell. Fractal Bias – Bearish.

Metals and Commodities
WTI Crude oil futures (CL) closed at $64.86 per barrel with a big bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 2.19. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling slope. Short Cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction: Sell. Fractal Bias – Bearish.

Gold futures (GC) closed at 1216.1 with a big bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 200 SMA and above its 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 11.6. Intermediate Cycle is positive and falling. Short Cycle is positive and falling slope. Market direction: Sell. Fractal Bias – Bearish.

Agriculture (DBA) ETF closed at 17.41 with a spinning top doji candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 200 SMA and above its 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.14. Intermediate Cycle is positive and falling slope. Short Cycle is positive and falling slope. Market direction: Sell. Fractal Bias – Bearish.

Commodities (DBC) ETF closed at 16.96 with a bearish marubozu candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.25. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling slope. Short Cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction: Sell. Fractal Bias – Bearish.

Bonds
Bond futures (/ZB) closed at 138’10 with a bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.719. Intermediate Cycle is negative and rising slope. Short Cycle is positive and rising slope. Market direction: Neutral. Fractal Bias – Neutral. It is in a Squeeze.

High Yield bond ETF (HYG) closed at 84.35 with a bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.365. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling slope. Short Cycle is negative and rising slope. Market direction: Sell. Fractal Bias- Bearish.

Currency
The dollar index ($DXY) closed at 97.105 with a bullish ‘rolling pin’ candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.325. Intermediate Cycle is positive and rising slope. Short Cycle is positive and rising slope. Market direction: Buy. Fractal Bias – Bullish. It is in a Weekly Squeeze.

EUR/USD closed at 1.1310 with a bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.0057. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling. Short Cycle is negative and falling. Market direction: Sell. Fractal Bias – Bearish.

USD/JPY closed at 112.93 with a bearish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.582. Intermediate Cycle is positive and rising slope. Short Cycle is positive and rising slope. Market direction: Buy. Fractal Bias – Bullish.

6S (Swiss Franc) – closed at 0.9958 with a bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.006. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling. Short Cycle is negative and falling. Market direction: Sell. Fractal Bias – Bearish.

Relative Strength – Sectors On a monthly lookback, the relative strength order of the ETFs that are outperforming the S&P 500 are XLP, XLK, XLF, XLB, XLY, XLE and XLI.

On a 3-monthly lookback, the relative strength order of the ETFs that are outperforming the S&P 500 are XLP, XLK, XLF, XLB, XLU, XLY, XLE and XLI respectively.

Market Internals
Market Sentiment is slightly bullish. Market Breadth has flattened with about equal gainers and losers. Volume Accumulation/Distribution is sloping upwards which means the market is in accumulation mode. Vix is at 21.23. Vix futures is at 20.15. Skew is at 117.64.

The Week Ahead
Market had an up day but there was late day selling which brought it down. We could be seeing a market turning. Skew is normal and Vix and Vix futures are both above 21 and 20 respectively. Market Internals are indicating that we could be seeing a market turning to the upside. The prognosis is for more volatility with potential up market.

To YOUR wealth!
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