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Z5 Fri, 29 March 2024

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Z5 Tues, 26 March 2024

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Z5 Mon, 25 March 2024

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Z5 Fri, 8 March 2024

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13 May 2019 – China retaliates, market falls

Indices
Dow Transportation closed at 10305.85 with a bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 372.24. Intermediate Cycle is positive and falling slope. Short Term Cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction – Sell.

Dow Industrial closed at 25324.99 with a bearish marubozu candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 719.86. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling slope. Short Term Cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction – Sell. 

Russell 2000 closed at 1523.0012 with a huge bearish marubozu candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 52.72. Intermediate Cycle is positive and falling slope. Short Cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction: Sell. 

Nasdaq 100 closed at 7324.1322 with a bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and above its 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 282.887. Intermediate Cycle is positive and falling slope. Short Cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction: Sell.

S&P 500 (SPX) closed at 2811.87 with a bearish marubozu candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and above its 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 79.97. Intermediate Cycle is positive and falling slope. Short Cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction: Sell.    

Metals and Commodities
WTI Crude oil futures (CL) closed at $60.84 per barrel with a bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and above its 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 2.7. Intermediate Cycle is positive and falling slope. Short Cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction: Sell.

Gold futures (GC) closed at 1300.9 with a big bullish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 19.8. Intermediate Cycle is negative and rising slope. Short Cycle is positive and rising slope. Market direction: Buy.

Commodities (DBC) ETF closed at 15.61 with a big bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.245. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling slope. Short Cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction: Sell.   

Bonds
Bond futures (/ZB) closed at 149’16 with a bullish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA, 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 1.219. Intermediate Cycle is positive and rising slope. Short Cycle is positive and rising slope. Market direction: Buy.

High Yield bond ETF (HYG) closed at 85.44 with a bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and above its 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.81. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling slope. Short Cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction: Sell. 

Currency
The dollar index ($DXY) closed at 97.352 with a bullish ‘hammer’ candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and above its 50 SMA, 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.462. Intermediate Cycle is positive and falling slope. Short Cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction: Sell.    

EUR/USD closed at 1.1221 with an inverted hammer candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and below its 50 SMA, 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.0041. Intermediate Cycle is negative and rising slope. Short Cycle is negative and rising slope. Market direction: Buy. It is in a daily and weekly Squeeze.

USD/JPY closed at 109.29 with a big bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA, 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.834. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling slope. Short Cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction: Sell. 

Relative Strength – Sectors On a monthly lookback, the relative strength order of the ETFs that are outperforming the S&P 500 are XLU, XLV, XLP, XLB, XLI and XLE.

On a 3-monthly lookback, the relative strength order of the ETFs that are outperforming the S&P 500 are XLK, XLY and XLF respectively.  

Market Internals
Market Sentiment is bearish. Market Breadth is sloping downwards showing more losers to gainers. Volume Acc/Dis is sloping downwards and showing distribution. Skew is at 119.36. Vix is at 19.57 and Vix Futures is at 18.75.   

The Week Ahead 
The market sold off on the breakdown in talks between China and the USA. Market Internals continue to show weakness. Skew is normal. Vix and Vix futures have gone up and are now below 20 and 18 respectively. Market Sentiment is bearish. The prognosis is for increase in volatility and continuing selling pressure.

To YOUR wealth!
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