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23 August 2019 – Weekly Review – Trade War Escalates


Indices (Weekly chart)
Dow Transportation closed at 9739.74 with a bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and above its 200 SMA. Weekly trading range – 460.03. Fractal Chaos Band – Closed below its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – negative and falling. Medium Cycle Wave – negative and falling. Short Cycle Wave – negative and falling. Market direction – Strong DownTrend. Momentum – Strong Downward. RSI – 38.9.    

Dow Industrial closed at 25628.90 with a bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and above its 50 SMA, 200 SMA. Weekly trading range – 881.6. Fractal Chaos Band – Within its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – positive and falling. Medium Cycle Wave – negative and falling. Short cycle Wave – negative and falling. Market direction – Strong DownTrend. Momentum – Strong Downward. It is in a monthly Squeeze. RSI – 44.9.

Russell 2000 closed at 1459.4853 with a bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and above its 200 SMA. Weekly trading range – 59.58. Fractal Chaos Band – On its FCB Lowerband. Long Cycle Wave – negative and falling slope. Medium Cycle Wave – negative and falling slope. Short Cycle Wave – negative and falling slope. Market direction – Strong DownTrend. Momentum – Strong Downward. RSI – 39.7.       

Nasdaq 100 closed at 7464.9945 with a bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and above its 50 SMA, 200 SMA. Weekly trading range – 321.86. Fractal Chaos Band – Within its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – positive and falling. Medium Cycle Wave – positive and falling. Short cycle – negative and falling. Market direction – Weak DownTrend. Momentum – Strong Downward. RSI – 48.6.       

S&P 500 closed at 2847 with a bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and above its 50 SMA, 200 SMA. Weekly trading range – 104.11. Fractal Chaos Band – Within its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – positive and falling. Medium Cycle Wave – positive and falling. Short cycle Wave – negative and falling. Market direction – Strong DownTrend. Momentum – Strong Downward. RSI – 47.1.

Metals and Commodities (Weekly charts)
WTI Crude oil futures (CL) closed at $53.97 per barrel with a bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and above its 200 SMA. Weekly trading range was 3.89. Fractal Chaos Band – Within its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – negative and falling. Medium Cycle Wave – negative and falling. Short cycle – negative and falling. Market direction:- Strong DownTrend. Momentum – Strong Downward. RSI – 42.6.

Gold futures (GC) closed at 1536.9 with a bullish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Weekly trading range was 38.2 Fractal Chaos Band – Above its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – positive and rising. Medium Cycle Wave – positive and rising. Short cycle – positive and rising. Market direction:- Strong UpTrend. Momentum – Strong Upward. RSI – 84.2.

Bonds (Weekly charts)
Bond futures (/ZB) closed at 165’15 with a high closing doji candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Weekly trading range was 3.0312. Fractal Chaos Band – Closed above its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – positive and rising. Medium Cycle Wave – positive and rising. Short cycle – positive and rising. Market direction:- Strong UpTrend. Momentum – Strong Upward. RSI – 82.2.         

High Yield bond ETF (HYG) closed at 86.55 with an inverted hammer candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Weekly trading range – 1.04. Fractal Chaos Band – Within its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – positive and falling. Medium Cycle Wave – positive and rising. Short cycle – negative and rising. Market direction:- Strong UpTrend. Momentum – Weak Downward. RSI – 53.5.

Currencies (Weekly charts)
The dollar index ($DXY) closed at 97.263 with a bearish marubozu candle below its 8 EMA and above its 21 EMA, 50 SMA, 200 SMA. Weekly trading range – 1.281. Fractal Chaos Band – Closed within its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – positive and rising. Medium Cycle Wave – positive and falling. Short cycle – negative and falling. Market direction:- Weak UpTrend. Momentum – Strong Upward. RSI – 51.

EUR/USD closed at 1.1151 with a bullish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Weekly trading range – 0.0101. Fractal Chaos Band – Closed within its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – negative and falling. Medium Cycle Wave – negative and falling. Short cycle – negative and rising. Market direction:- Strong DownTrend. Momentum – Strong Downward. RSI – 44.4.   

USD/JPY closed at 105.48 with a bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Weekly trading range – 1.4829. Fractal Chaos Band – Below its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – negative and falling. Medium Cycle Wave – negative and falling. Short cycle – negative and falling. Market direction:- Strong DownTrend. Momentum – Strong Downward. RSI – 33.8.

Relative Strength – Sectors
On a 3-monthly lookback, the relative strength order of the ETFs are XLU, XLP, /ES, XLK, XLY, SPY, XLI, SPX, XLV, XLF, XLB and XLE respectively.

On a 12-monthly lookback, the relative strength order of the ETFs are XLU, XLP, XLK, XLY, /ES, SPY, SPX, XLI, XLB, XLF, XLV and XLE respectively.

Market Internals
Market Sentiment is bullish. Market Breadth is sloping downwards showing more losers than gainers. Volume Acc/Dis is sloping downwards showing distribution. Skew is at 112.62. Vix is at 19.87 and Vix futures 19.92.

The Week Ahead
Market Sentiment is bearish. Market Internals are showing weakness. Vix and Vix futures are below 20. Skew is low. The trade war between USA – China has escalated with both sides increasing tariffs. The prognosis for the coming week is that of a volatile market coming under selling pressure.

To YOUR wealth!

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