Indices made significant gain till the FOMC minutes were released which hinted at rates hike in June. All gains were wiped out in a matter of minutes. Bonds, gold and oil were sold off and dollar index spiked upward. Financial stocks were the day’s big gainer as they tend to benefit from higher yields while dividend stocks were sold off. Goldman Sachs is neutral on stocks as there are a lack of earnings growth. Vix has now increased.
Dow Transportation rallied in the first two hours after market open and range traded till 2 pm as it waited on the FOMC meeting minutes. It dropped to its open within a 30 minute period before recovering and closed for the day with a spinning top doji candle. Momentum remains downward. Daily volumetric buying pressure is at 0%.
Dow Industrial moved upward in spurts till the FOMC minutes were released at 2 pm EST. It suffered a big drop within an half hour period and recovered slightly to close with a doji candle. Momentum remains downward. Short term volumetric buying pressure is at 12.5%. The index is in a monthly Squeeze.
Russell 2000 made steady gains till 2 pm EST when the FOMC meeting notes were released. It had a sharp drop within a half hour period and recovered slightly to close with a spinning top doji candle. Momentum remains downward. Volumetric buying pressure is at 15.5%.
Nasdaq 100 traded upward till 2 pm EST before the FOMC minutes was released. It had a sharp drop within an hour period before recovering slightly to close with a low closing spinning top doji candle.Momentum remains downward. Volumetric buying pressure is at 28.3%. The index is in a monthly Squeeze.
S&P 500 traded steadily upward till 2 pm when the FOMC minutes was released. Volatility spiked and it suffered a sharp drop before recovering and closed the day with a spinning top doji candle. Volumetric buying pressure is at 17%. The index is in a monthly Squeeze.
Metals and Commodities
Oil (/CL) futures made gains in morning trading and fell together with the market after the FOMC meeting minutes was released. It ended the day at $48.21 per barrel. It had earlier made gains on mixed inventory data as the API reported a decline of -1.1M barrels in the latest week update. DOE reported that oil inventories rose 1.31.M barrels in a conflicting report.
Gold (/GC) futures is trading down at $1261.8. Silver (/SI) futures is at 16.910 and is in a Squeeze. Money rotated out of the precious metal into the financial stocks that benefit from higher interest rates.
Agriculture (DBA) ETF closed at 21.37. Commodities (DBC) ETF closed at 14.64.
Bonds
High Yield bond ETF (HYG) closed at 83.08 and has flatlined. Bonds ETF (TLT) closed 129.49. Money rotated out of defensive financial instrument. The pullback in bonds comes amid hawkish comments by various FED officials along with stronger-than-expected readings on inflation (CPI). The 30-year Treasury yield rose 8 bps to 2.668%, the 10-yr up about 10.7 bps to 1.866%.
Currencies
The dollar index made gains and is at 95.170 EUR/USD is trading at 1.12252. USD/JPY is at 110.13. The dollar index spiked upwards after the FOMC minutes were released. Policy makers said that whether they decide to raise rates will ultimately hinge on the quality of U.S. economic data in the second quarter.
Relative Strength – Sectors
On a monthly lookback, the ETFs outperforming the S&P 500 are XLE, XLF, XLU, XLK, XLV, XLP, XLY and XLI respectively. Financials surged after the FOMC meeting notes were released.
On a 3-month lookback, the relative strength order are XLE, XLB, XLF and XLI.
Market Internals
Vix closed up at 15.95. Vix futures is down slightly at 18.19. Skew is at 122.22. Market sentiment is bearish. Market breadth continue to slope downwards. Volumetric accumulation/distribution has flattened.
The Week Ahead
In anticipation of an interest rate hike in June, money has rotated out of more defensive play like bonds and dividend yielding stocks. Market remains undecided as can be seen by the number of dojis in the indices. The market will take a day or two to decide whether rate hike is good for the market or not. Our prognosis is that the market remains vulnerable to selling pressure.
To YOUR wealth!
Related
18 May 2016 – Interest rate hike in June?
Indices made significant gain till the FOMC minutes were released which hinted at rates hike in June. All gains were wiped out in a matter of minutes. Bonds, gold and oil were sold off and dollar index spiked upward. Financial stocks were the day’s big gainer as they tend to benefit from higher yields while dividend stocks were sold off. Goldman Sachs is neutral on stocks as there are a lack of earnings growth. Vix has now increased.
Dow Transportation rallied in the first two hours after market open and range traded till 2 pm as it waited on the FOMC meeting minutes. It dropped to its open within a 30 minute period before recovering and closed for the day with a spinning top doji candle. Momentum remains downward. Daily volumetric buying pressure is at 0%.
Dow Industrial moved upward in spurts till the FOMC minutes were released at 2 pm EST. It suffered a big drop within an half hour period and recovered slightly to close with a doji candle. Momentum remains downward. Short term volumetric buying pressure is at 12.5%. The index is in a monthly Squeeze.
Russell 2000 made steady gains till 2 pm EST when the FOMC meeting notes were released. It had a sharp drop within a half hour period and recovered slightly to close with a spinning top doji candle. Momentum remains downward. Volumetric buying pressure is at 15.5%.
Nasdaq 100 traded upward till 2 pm EST before the FOMC minutes was released. It had a sharp drop within an hour period before recovering slightly to close with a low closing spinning top doji candle.Momentum remains downward. Volumetric buying pressure is at 28.3%. The index is in a monthly Squeeze.
S&P 500 traded steadily upward till 2 pm when the FOMC minutes was released. Volatility spiked and it suffered a sharp drop before recovering and closed the day with a spinning top doji candle. Volumetric buying pressure is at 17%. The index is in a monthly Squeeze.
Metals and Commodities
Oil (/CL) futures made gains in morning trading and fell together with the market after the FOMC meeting minutes was released. It ended the day at $48.21 per barrel. It had earlier made gains on mixed inventory data as the API reported a decline of -1.1M barrels in the latest week update. DOE reported that oil inventories rose 1.31.M barrels in a conflicting report.
Gold (/GC) futures is trading down at $1261.8. Silver (/SI) futures is at 16.910 and is in a Squeeze. Money rotated out of the precious metal into the financial stocks that benefit from higher interest rates.
Agriculture (DBA) ETF closed at 21.37. Commodities (DBC) ETF closed at 14.64.
Bonds
High Yield bond ETF (HYG) closed at 83.08 and has flatlined. Bonds ETF (TLT) closed 129.49. Money rotated out of defensive financial instrument. The pullback in bonds comes amid hawkish comments by various FED officials along with stronger-than-expected readings on inflation (CPI). The 30-year Treasury yield rose 8 bps to 2.668%, the 10-yr up about 10.7 bps to 1.866%.
Currencies
The dollar index made gains and is at 95.170 EUR/USD is trading at 1.12252. USD/JPY is at 110.13. The dollar index spiked upwards after the FOMC minutes were released. Policy makers said that whether they decide to raise rates will ultimately hinge on the quality of U.S. economic data in the second quarter.
Relative Strength – Sectors
On a monthly lookback, the ETFs outperforming the S&P 500 are XLE, XLF, XLU, XLK, XLV, XLP, XLY and XLI respectively. Financials surged after the FOMC meeting notes were released.
On a 3-month lookback, the relative strength order are XLE, XLB, XLF and XLI.
Market Internals
Vix closed up at 15.95. Vix futures is down slightly at 18.19. Skew is at 122.22. Market sentiment is bearish. Market breadth continue to slope downwards. Volumetric accumulation/distribution has flattened.
The Week Ahead
In anticipation of an interest rate hike in June, money has rotated out of more defensive play like bonds and dividend yielding stocks. Market remains undecided as can be seen by the number of dojis in the indices. The market will take a day or two to decide whether rate hike is good for the market or not. Our prognosis is that the market remains vulnerable to selling pressure.
To YOUR wealth!
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