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Futures (ES, NQ, GC, CL) – 28 June 2017

28 June 2017

Daily status of the futures of Gold (GC), WTI Crude (CL), Nasdaq 100 (NQ) and S&P 500 (ES)

Futures (ES, NQ, GC, CL) – 27 June 2017

27 June 2017

Daily status of the futures of Gold (GC), WTI Crude (CL), Nasdaq 100 (NQ) and S&P 500 (ES)

Futures (ES, NQ, GC, CL) – 23 June 17

23 June 2017

Daily status of the futures of Gold (GC), WTI Crude (CL), Nasdaq 100 (NQ) and S&P 500 (ES)

Options – 18 December 15 Monthly Income – Bull PUT on SPX

Update

14 December 2015

We closed this CALL credit spread and bought it back for $0.05. Overall, it was a small profit to be redeployed for the next trade.

8 December 2015

We sold a monthly CALL credit spread at 2135/2145 for $1.10. The total Return-on-Risk for this new trade is 1.10/8.90 = 12.36 % excluding transaction cost. The PUT credit spread was closed for $1.75.

27 November 2015

We sold a monthly PUT credit spread at 2015/2005 for $1.15. The total Return-on-Risk for this new trade is 1.15/8.85 = 13.00 % excluding transaction cost. Expiration is at 9:30 am, 18 December 2015 (EST)

Options – 21 August 15 Monthly Income – Bull PUT on SPX

Update

21 August 2015

This PUT credit spread expired worthless. The Settlement price was 2015.47.

13 July 2015

We sold a monthly PUT credit spread at 1980/1970 for $1.30. The total Return-on-Risk for this new trade is 1.30/8.70 = 14.94 % excluding transaction cost. Expiration is at 9:30 am, 21 August 2015 (EST)

Options – 17 July 15 Monthly Income – Bull PUT on SPX

Update

13 July 2015

We closed this trade by buying it back for $0.05. Option expiration is this coming Friday morning.

15 June 2015

We sold a monthly PUT credit spread at 1980/1970 for $1.30. The total Return-on-Risk for this new trade is 1.30/8.70 = 14.94 % excluding transaction cost. Expiration is at 9:30 am, 17 July 2015 (EST)

20 May 2016 – Rebound and volatility continues

The bulls closed out the week that has seen volatility increased. Dow Industrial and S&P 500 had an indecisive week and the Russell 2000 closed out positive for the week. Dow Transportation and Nasdaq 100 were solidly up for the week. The Transportation and Nasdaq are already in a weekly down trend. Russell 2000 is signalling it is moving to a weekly down trend as well. Dow Industrial and S&P 500 continues to weaken.

Economic Data
· Existing-home sales for April rose 1.7% to 5.45M. March existing home sales was revised to 5.36M from 5.33M. Median existing-home sale price hits $232,500, up 6.3% for the year

Dow Transportation shot up on market open and reached the high of the day in the first hour of trading. It proceeded to range trade for the day and closed with a bullish marubozu candle above its 8 EMA but below its 21 EMA. Momentum remains downward. Daily volumetric buying pressure is at 11.6%.

On the weekly chart, the buying pressure is at 80.9% and it closed the week on its 21 EMA with a bullish marubozu candle in a bullish harami candle pattern.

Dow Industrial shot up on market open and reached the high of the day in the first hour of trading. It then range traded throughout the day and closed with a bullish candle above its 3 EMA but below its 8 EMA. Momentum remains downward. Short term volumetric buying pressure is at 15.8%.

On the weekly chart, the buying pressure is at 82.3% and it closed the week with a doji candle below its weekly 8 EMA.

Russell 2000 shot up on market open and continued trading upward till the end of the day. It closed above its 50 SMA with a bullish Marubozu candle on its 21 EMA and 200 SMA. Momentum remains downward. Volumetric buying pressure is at 55.7%.

On the weekly chart, the buying pressure is at 92.5% and it closed the week with a bullish harami candle pattern above its 21 EMA.

Nasdaq 100 traded bullishly upward on market open and reached the high of the day by mid-morning. It range traded from late morning till the end of the day and closed bullish marubozu candle on its 21 EMA. Volumetric buying pressure is at 73.1%. The Nasdaq 100 is in a daily and monthly Squeeze.

On the weekly chart, the buying pressure is at 83.3% and it closed the week with a spinning top doji candle on its weekly 21 EMA.

S&P 500 shot up on market open and reached its high of the day by mid-morning. It bounced off its 21 EMA and 50 SMAand range traded for the rest of the day and closed on its 8 EMA. Volumetric buying pressure is at 56.7%. The S&P 500 is in a daily and monthly Squeeze.

On the weekly chart, the buying pressure is at 86.1%. It closed the week with a spinning top doji candle above its weekly 8 EMA.

Commodities
Oil (/CL) futures closed at $48.48 per barrel and the uptrend continues. Wild fires in Canada that could impact on shale oil production and news of a blocked port in Libya helped to push oil higher.

Gold (/GC) futures closed down at $1252.90 an ounce impacted by potential interest rate hike in June by the FED. Higher rate should see a rise in the dollar and push down the prices for gold as it is denominated in US dollar. Silver (/SI) futures closed at $16.550 an ounce. Gold and Silver Index (XAU) has pulled back for the last three weeks and is at 85.44.

Agriculture ETF (DBA) closed at 21.12 and ended the week with a bearish spinning top doji candle. Commodities (DBC) ETF closed at 14.66 with a small doji above its weekly 50 SMA.

Bonds
High Yield bonds ETF (HYG) closed at 83.14 with a small spinning top doji below its weekly 50 SMA. Bonds ETF (TLT) closed down for the week at 130.15. It is in a Squeeze. We could see a break to the downside if rate hike in June is realised.

Currencies
The dollar index closed up for the week. This is the third weekly gain. EUR/USD suffered its third weekly loss and closed at 1.12224. USD/JPY closed at 110.149. The dollar is strengthening against the other trading currencies as interest rate hike in June is being priced into it.

Relative Strength – Sectors
On a monthly lookback, the ETFs outperforming the S&P 500 are XLE, XLU, XLK, XLF, XLB, XLV and XLY respectively.

On a 3-month lookback, the relative strength order are XLE, XLB and XLF.

Market Internals
Vix closed at 15.20. Vix futures is at 17.325. Volatility has increased slightly. Skew is at 125.61. Market sentiment has turned bullish on the daily chart. Market breadth continues to slope upward on the weekly chart. Volumetric accumulation/distribution is sloping upward on the weekly chart.

The Week Ahead
The past week has seen increase in volatility but market participants continue to be well-hedged to the downside. Under such a scenario, it is unlikely for the market to suffer a big drop. That only happens when market participants are not hedged to the downside and any sudden shift downwards cause a cascading effect of selling and more selling. The prognosis is that the market continues to be volatile and range trade with alternating days of swing up and down.

 

To YOUR wealth!

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