25 May 2016 – What’s driving this market?

What’s driving this market higher, one has to wonder? The market fundamental certainly does not support it but is the excessive liquidity from the QE’s especially in Europe contributing to it? This is the second day that the market posted solid gains on no news and after the end of a not-so-good earnings season. Also, there is a potential for a rate hike in June or the coming months which is hardly bullish for the equity market. Yes, we are in a presidential election year and that is typically good for the market and oil is making new high and touching US$50 per barrel. Is the market anticipating a better economy ahead?

Dow Transportation had a small gap up on market open and continued trading upward for the first hour after market open. It then range traded for the rest of the day and closed with a small marubozu candle below its 50 SMA. Momentum remains downward. Daily volumetric buying pressure is at 6.8%.

Dow Industrial gapped up on market open and traded upward for the first hour after market open. It then range traded for the rest of the day and closed with a bullish marubozu candle above its 50 SMA. Momentum has reversed upward. Short term volumetric buying pressure is at 69.9%. The index is in a daily and monthly Squeeze.

Russell 2000 shot upward on market open and continued trading upward in the first hour and made the high for the day. It then swung down and up for the rest of the day and closed with a bullish marubozu candle on its weekly 50 SMA. Momentum remains upward. Volumetric buying pressure is at 80.8%. The index is in a monthly Squeeze.

Nasdaq 100 gapped up on market open and traded upward for the most part of the day. It pulled back in the last hour of trading and closed with a bullish candle above its 50 SMA. Momentum remains upward. Volumetric buying pressure is at 99.9%. The index is in a daily and monthly Squeeze.

S&P 500 gapped up on market open and traded upward in the the first hour of trading. It then range traded for the rest of the day and closed with a bullish marubozu candle above its 3 EMA. Volumetric buying pressure is at 99.7%. The index is in a daily and monthly Squeeze.

Metals and Commodities
Oil (/CL) futures is up at 49.78. Gold (/GC) futures is down at $1234.50. Silver (/SI) futures is at 16.430. Both gold and silver have pulled back lately.

Agriculture (DBA) ETF closed at 21.07 above its 21 EMA. Commodities (DBC) ETF closed at 14.75.

Bonds
High Yield bond ETF (HYG) closed at 83.79. Bonds ETF (TLT) made a slight gains and closed 129.37.

Currencies
The dollar index continue to be in its uptrend and is trading at 95.225. EUR/USD is trading at 1.11733. USD/JPY is at 109.72.

Relative Strength – Sectors
On a monthly lookback, the ETFs outperforming the S&P 500 are XLE, XLB, XLK, XLF and XLV respectively. On a 3-month lookback, the relative strength order are XLE, XLB and XLF .

Market Internals
Vix closed at 13.90. Vix futures is at 16.40. Skew is at 124.74. Market sentiment is bullish. Market breadth has flattened. Volumetric accumulation/distribution is sloping upward.

The Week Ahead
The last couple of days have been rather excessively bullish on not much news. It is within the range trading box and until there is a confirmed breakout, a potential short play is being set up. The prognosis is that the market is likely to have a pullback in the next day or two.

To YOUR wealth!