7 June 2016 – Transportation flies high

It was a day where the Dow Jones Transportation surged while the other indices were resting. Buy even that, it pulled back in the last hour of trading. The indices continue to make new high for 2016. The S&P 500 hit 2119.22 which is another 13 points from its all time high of 2132.82 it hit on 20 July 2015. The Dow Jones Industrial traded briefly above 18000 but was unable to hold.

Dow Transportation surged on market open and continued to trade upward for most of the day. It pulled back slightly toward the end of the day to close with a bullish marubozu candle above its 50 SMA . Momentum remains upward. Daily volumetric buying pressure is at 86.8%.

Dow Industrial gapped up on market ope and proceeded to range trade for most part of the day. It sold off in the last hour of trading and closed with a small low closing doji candle above its moving averages. Momentum remains upward. Short term volumetric buying pressure is at 95%. The index is in a monthly Squeeze.

Russell 2000 probed for the bottom in the first half hour of trading and then rallied upward till late afternoon. It sold off in the last hour of trading and closed with a spinning top doji candle above its 3 EMA. Momentum remains upward. Volumetric buying pressure is at 100%.

Nasdaq 100 probed for its high of the day in the first half hour of trading and then proceeded to range trade till midday. It sold off in the afternoon session and closed with a bearish candle on its 3 EMA. Momentum remains upward. Volumetric buying pressure is at 88%. The index is in a monthly Squeeze.

S&P 500 grinded its way upward till late afternoon and sold off in the last hour. It formed an intraday head and shoulder pattern and closed with an inverted hammer candle above its 3 EMA. Momentum remains upward. Volumetric buying pressure is at 95%. The index is in a monthly Squeeze.

Metals and Commodities
Oil (/CL) futures made gains and is trading $50.42 per barrel. Gold (/GC) futures is at $1246.4. Silver (/SI) futures is at 16.435.

Agriculture (DBA) ETF is at 22.45 in a parabolic move upward. Commodities (DBC) ETF closed with a bullish candle at 15.32. Both ETFs are in a bullish uptrend.

Bonds
High Yield bond ETF (HYG) continued its uptrend and closed at 84.25. Bonds ETF (TLT) gapped up and closed at 132.56.

Currencies
The dollar index continued its downtrend at 93.725. EUR/USD is trading at 1.13642. USD/JPY is at 106.89 and is continuing its downtrend.

Relative Strength – Sectors
On a monthly lookback, the ETFs outperforming the S&P 500 are XLE, XLB, XLU, XLK, XLV and XLI respectively. Energy re-occupies the top spot.

On a 3-month lookback, the relative strength order are XLE, XLB, XLV, XLF and XLI outperforming the S&P 500.

Market Internals
Vix closed at 14.05. Vix futures is at 14.75. There is no fear in the market.

Skew is at 128.54. Market sentiment remains bullish. Market breadth is continues to slope upward. Volumetric accumulation/distribution is sloping upward as well.

The Week Ahead
Market internals show that the market participants are not showing fear in this market and also over-confidence. As contrarian, this tends to be a bearish sign. The prognosis that the market remains strong but signs of over-confidence is beginning to show amongst market participants. It is time to be cautiously bullish.

To YOUR wealth!