24 June 2016 – Post Brexit, Humpty Dumpty had a big fall!

We are now post Brexit and it is for real! The UK referendum has come out in favour of exiting the European Union. Stockmarkets in the EU registered big falls of over 10%. At one point, trading in the S&P 500 e-mini futures were halted as it collapsed from 2100+ to 1999! All the other indices suffered a similar fate. Global market plunged! Vix was up as high as 47% at its high.

Financial sector was hardest hit which was led by decline in the european and US banks and insurance stocks. British pound and the Euro plunged as George Soros predicted as the likely outcome if Brexit was confirmed. US dollar surged.

Contagion is likely to spread to other EU countries. More EU countries are now demanding a referendum of their own and some countries could well follow the UK exit. Humpty Dumpty had a big fall.

The immediate outcome of Brexit is that holidays in Europe and the UK just got cheaper!

Dow Transportation painted a ginormous bearish marubozu candle. The day trading range was 358.4 points and the daily trading range was 104.9. Momentum remains downward. Daily volumetric buying pressure is at 0%.

On the weekly chart, it closed with a big bearish candle below its 200 SMA.

Dow Industrial painted a ginormous bearish marubozu candle. The day trading range was 843 points and the daily trading range is 183.7. Momentum has reversed downward. Short term volumetric buying pressure is at 0%. The index is in a daily and monthly Squeeze.

On the weekly chart, it closed with a big bearish candle below its 21 EMA and above its 50 SMA.

Russell 2000 had a once a year rebalancing today. It painted a huge bearish candle. The day trading range was 85.5 when the daily trading range is 17.8. Momentum has reversed downward. Volumetric buying pressure is at 17.9%.

On the weekly chart, it closed with a big bearish candle just below its 50 SMA and above its 21 EMA.

Nasdaq 100 painted a ginormous bearish marubozu candle. The day trading range was 259.5 and the daily trading range is 54.2 points. Momentum is downward. Volumetric buying pressure is at 0%. The index is in a monthly Squeeze.

On the weekly chart, it closed with a big bearish candle below its 50 SMA and 21 EMA.

S&P 500 painted a ginormous bearish marubozu candle. The day trading range 120.5 and the daily trading range is 21.8. Volumetric buying pressure is at 0%. The index is in a monthly Squeeze.

On the weekly chart, it closed with a big bearish candle below its 21 EMA but above its 50 SMA.

Metals and Commodities
Oil (/CL) futures closed at $47.57 per barrel. Gold (/GC) futures closed up at $1319.1 per ounce. Silver (/SI) futures is at 17.770 per ounce.

Agriculture (DBA) ETF closed down at 21.63. Commodities (DBC) ETF closed at 15.01.

Bonds
High Yield bond ETF (HYG) is down at 83.25. Bonds ETF (TLT) made gains and closed at 135.78.

Currencies
The dollar index is at 94.165 and in a down trend. EUR/USD is trading at 1.12786. USD/JPY is at 104.804 continuing its downtrend.

Relative Strength – Sectors
On a monthly lookback, the ETFs outperforming the S&P 500 are XLU, XLE, XLP, XLF, XLV, XLI and XLB respectively.

On a 3-month lookback, the relative strength order are XLE, XLU, XLB, XLV, XLP, XLK and XLF are outperforming the S&P 500.

Market Internals
Vix closed at 25.76. Vix futures is at 22.65. Skew is elevated at 142.92. Market sentiment is bearish. Market breadth is sloping downward. Volumetric accumulation/distribution is sloping downward.

The Week Ahead
The post Brexit market is a down market. The prognosis is that we should still see volatility for the coming week. Many funds will have the weekend to assess the damage done to their accounts due to their unpreparedness.

To YOUR wealth!