30 June 2016 – Post Brexit = Pre-Brexit

The indices are back to levels pre-Brexit. Market participants have decided that the immediate reactions pre-Brexit were a buying opportunity. Where does the market go to from here?

Dow Transportation probed for the bottom in the first half hour of trading and then rallied upward. It closed with a bullish hammer candle above its 8 EMA but below its 21 EMA. Momentum remains downward. Daily volumetric buying pressure is at 71.9%.

Dow Industrial range traded in the first hour of trading before rallying upward for the rest of the day. It closed with a bullish marubozu candle above its 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Momentum has reversed upward. Short term volumetric buying pressure is at 52.1%. The index is in a monthly Squeeze.

Russell 2000 probed for its bottom in the first half hour of trading and then rallied upward for the rest of the day. It closed with a bullish marubozu candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 200 SMA. Momentum is neutral. Volumetric buying pressure is at 65.7%.

Nasdaq 100 gapped up on market open and probed for its daily low in the first hour of trading. It rallied upward for the rest of the day and closed with a bullish marubozu candle on its 200 SMA. Momentum is neutral downward. Volumetric buying pressure is at 56.4%. The index is in a monthly Squeeze.

S&P 500 probed for the bottom in the first half hour of trading and rallied upward for the rest of the day. It closed with a bullish marubozu candle above its 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Momentum has reversed upward. Volumetric buying pressure is at 70.6%. The index is in a monthly Squeeze.

Metals and Commodities
Oil (/CL) futures traded at $48.54 per barrel. Gold (/GC) futures is trading upward at $1330.9 per ounce. Silver (/SI) futures is at 19.030 per ounce.

Agriculture (DBA) ETF closed at 22.07. Commodities (DBC) ETF closed at 15.35.

Bonds
High Yield bond ETF (HYG) is up at 84.70. Bonds ETF (TLT) closed at 138.90.

Currencies
The dollar index is at 95.930. EUR/USD is trading at 1.1103. USD/JPY is at 102.882.

Relative Strength – Sectors
On a monthly lookback, the ETFs outperforming the S&P 500 are XLF, XLU, XLI and XLE respectively.

On a 3-month lookback, the relative strength order are XLE, XLU, XLF, XLP and XLI are outperforming the S&P 500.

Market Internals
Vix closed down at 15.63. Vix futures is at 17.15. Skew is elevated at 140.58. Market sentiment is neutral. Market breadth is sloping upward. Volumetric accumulation/distribution is sloping upward.

The Week Ahead
The market participants have decided that the post-Brexit panic has been over-sold and has bought it back to levels that it was before. Market internals are giving us mixed signals. Although there is support with the current rally, segment of the market participants have increased their short position expecting this rally not to last. The prognosis is that the market is volatile and it can turn on a dime.

To YOUR wealth!