16 August 2016 – Oil soars

Oil continues to soar and is trading above $46 per barrel and the dollar index is in a bearish momentum. The indices had a small pullback after a day of new highs. The change in sentiment has been attributed to a FED official which raised the possibility of a rate hike in September. Gold and Silver continue to trade sideways for the last 3 weeks and bond is in the same sideway momentum. Stock buybacks have slowed and that means one of the catalysts for the current bull is slowly disappearing.

Dow Transportation closed higher for the day and intraday’s trading was noisy with no observable trend. Daily momentum is upward. Daily volumetric buying pressure is at 45%. The index is in a weekly Squeeze.

Dow Industrial closed lower for the day and intraday’s trading activities were directionaless. Momentum remains upward. Short term volumetric buying pressure is at 89.2%. The index is in a monthly Squeeze.

Russell 2000 gapped down on market open and came under selling pressure throughout the day. It closed with a bearish candle above its 8 EMA. Momentum remains upward. Volumetric buying pressure is at 80.2%.

Nasdaq 100 gapped down on market open and traded without any direction throughout the day. It closed with a bearish marubozu candle on its 8 EMA. Momentum remains upward. Volumetric buying pressure is at 93.2%. The index is in a monthly Squeeze.

S&P 500 gapped down on market open and range traded for most of the day. It sold off in the last half hour to close with a small bearish marubozu candle below its 8 EMA. Momentum remains upward. Volumetric buying pressure is at 90.4%. The index is still in a daily and monthly Squeeze.

Metals and Commodities
Oil (/CL) futures continue to soar higher and is now trading at $46.31 per barrel above its 50 SMA. Gold (/GC) futures has been trading sideways for the last couple of weeks and is trading at 1351.6 per ounce. Silver (/SI) futures is trading at 19.860 per ounce. It is in a Squeeze.

Agriculture (DBA) ETF closed at 20.88. Momentum remains downward. Commodities (DBC) ETF continues its upward momentum and closed higher at 14.92 above its 50 SMA. Momentum is upward.

Bonds
High Yield bond ETF (HYG) pulled back and closed on its 3 EMA at 86.39.

Bonds ETF (TLT) traded lower and closed at 138.39. It is in a daily Squeeze.

Currencies
The dollar index continues its downward momentum and is at 94.735. EUR/USD is in an upward momentum and is trading at 1.12864. USD/JPY is in a downward momentum and is trading at 100.482.

Relative Strength – Sectors
On a monthly lookback, the ETFs outperforming the S&P 500 are XLE, XLK, XLF, XLI, XLY and XLB respectively.

On a 3-month lookback, the relative strength order are XLK, XLF, XLI, XLY and XLB are outperforming the S&P 500.

Market Internals
Vix closed at 12.64. Vix futures is at 15.20. Skew is at 132.27. Market sentiment is bullish. Market breadth is sloping downward. Volumetric accumulation/distribution has flattened.

The Week Ahead
The Vix futures is pricing in risk going forward. The possibility of a rate hike has reappeared and the market has reacted with caution. Market breadth is deteriorating but volume accumulation is still strong. Some caution is required and the prognosis is that the market remains strong.

Stock of the Day
NPTN is our pick of the day. It develops, manufactures and markets optoelectronic products that transmit, receive and switch digital optical signals for communications networks.

To YOUR wealth!