22 August 2016 – The Great Tussle

It was another day of tussle between bulls and bears with each taking turns to counter attack the other throughout the day. The indices closed with dojis signalling indecisions ahead of the FED at Jackson Hole symposium which seems to indicate a likelihood of a rate hike. Meanwhile, the trading ranges continue to narrow which will end with a big move in either direction.

Oil came down and is trading below $48 per barrel. Gold and Silver is trading sideways.

Bond is in sideways action as well and the uptrend is still intact.

The dollar index continue to trend down and the EUR/USD continue to trend upward while the USD/JPY continue to trend downward.

Dow Transportation range traded throughout the day in narrow ranges and closed with a small doji candle above all its moving averages. Daily momentum is upward. Daily volumetric buying pressure is at 100.0%. The index is in a weekly Squeeze.

Dow Industrial had a small gap down on market open and managed to rally upward. It range traded throughout the day and closed with a small doji candle above its 21 EMA. Momentum remains upward. Short term volumetric buying pressure is at 100%. The index is in a monthly Squeeze.

Russell 2000 had a slow open before surging upward in the first hour after market open. It encounted a sharp sell-off before recovering and grinding upward for the rest of the day to close with a small bullish candle above all its moving averages. Momentum remains upward. Volumetric buying pressure is at 100%.

Nasdaq 100 had a quiet open before surging upward that was quickly sold into. It range traded into a wedge pattern and closed with a small doji candle above all its moving averages. Momentum remains upward. Volumetric buying pressure is at 100%. The index is in a monthly Squeeze.

S&P 500 had a rising wedge trading pattern as every rally was sold into and every sell-off was bought. It closed with a doji candle on its 21 EMA. The sideways action is about 2 weeks long. Momentum remains upward. Volumetric buying pressure is at 100%. The index is still in a daily and monthly Squeeze.

Metals and Commodities
Oil (/CL) futures pulled back to below $48 per barrel. Gold (/GC) futures is trading sideways at about 1342.80 per ounce. Silver (/SI) futures is trading at 18.950 per ounce.

Agriculture (DBA) ETF closed at 20.97 and momentum has shifted upward. Commodities (DBC) ETF pulled back and closed at 14.98.

Bonds
High Yield bond ETF (HYG) pulled back and closed at 86.45.

Bonds ETF (TLT) closed higher at 139.88. It is in a daily Squeeze.

Currencies
The dollar index continued its downward trend and is at 94.480. EUR/USD pulled back is trading at 1.13250. USD/JPY is in a downward trend and is trading at 100.286.

Relative Strength – Sectors
On a monthly lookback, the ETFs outperforming the S&P 500 are XLE, XLK, XLI, XLF, XLU, XLB and XLP respectively.

On a 3-month lookback, the relative strength order are XLK, XLF, XLI, XLB and XLY are outperforming the S&P 500.

Market Internals
Vix closed higher at 12.27. Vix futures is at 14.80. Skew is at 135.20. Market sentiment remains bullish. Market breadth continues to deteriorate and is sloping downward. Volumetric accumulation/distribution is sloping upward.

The Week Ahead
The Vix had a slight gain and Vix futures remain below 15. There is still no fear in the market. Market breadth continues to deteriorate but volumetric accumulation continues. The prognosis is to take a more cautious approach to the market.

Stock of the Day
TROX is our pick of the day. Trox is engaged in the production and marketing of titanium bering mineral sands and titanium dioxide pigment.

To YOUR wealth!