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Futures (ES, NQ, GC, CL) – 28 June 2017

28 June 2017

Daily status of the futures of Gold (GC), WTI Crude (CL), Nasdaq 100 (NQ) and S&P 500 (ES)

Futures (ES, NQ, GC, CL) – 27 June 2017

27 June 2017

Daily status of the futures of Gold (GC), WTI Crude (CL), Nasdaq 100 (NQ) and S&P 500 (ES)

Futures (ES, NQ, GC, CL) – 23 June 17

23 June 2017

Daily status of the futures of Gold (GC), WTI Crude (CL), Nasdaq 100 (NQ) and S&P 500 (ES)

Options – 18 December 15 Monthly Income – Bull PUT on SPX

Update

14 December 2015

We closed this CALL credit spread and bought it back for $0.05. Overall, it was a small profit to be redeployed for the next trade.

8 December 2015

We sold a monthly CALL credit spread at 2135/2145 for $1.10. The total Return-on-Risk for this new trade is 1.10/8.90 = 12.36 % excluding transaction cost. The PUT credit spread was closed for $1.75.

27 November 2015

We sold a monthly PUT credit spread at 2015/2005 for $1.15. The total Return-on-Risk for this new trade is 1.15/8.85 = 13.00 % excluding transaction cost. Expiration is at 9:30 am, 18 December 2015 (EST)

Options – 21 August 15 Monthly Income – Bull PUT on SPX

Update

21 August 2015

This PUT credit spread expired worthless. The Settlement price was 2015.47.

13 July 2015

We sold a monthly PUT credit spread at 1980/1970 for $1.30. The total Return-on-Risk for this new trade is 1.30/8.70 = 14.94 % excluding transaction cost. Expiration is at 9:30 am, 21 August 2015 (EST)

Options – 17 July 15 Monthly Income – Bull PUT on SPX

Update

13 July 2015

We closed this trade by buying it back for $0.05. Option expiration is this coming Friday morning.

15 June 2015

We sold a monthly PUT credit spread at 1980/1970 for $1.30. The total Return-on-Risk for this new trade is 1.30/8.70 = 14.94 % excluding transaction cost. Expiration is at 9:30 am, 17 July 2015 (EST)

14 October 2016 – Is the bond market forecasting a major sell-off?


The indices ended lower across all the major indices for the week. On Friday’s trading, the indices started out strong and surged upward and by late morning, there was sustained selling for the rest of the day. This is a risk-off market environment and investors took the opportunity to lighten the portfolio. With the US political uncertainties and also the impending interest rate increase, investors are adopting a wait-and-see attitude.

On the weekly chart, we are seeing mix signals from the indices with the Dow Transportation leading the market up and the Dow Industrial, Russell 2000 and the S&P 500 are showing signs of weakness. Dow Industrial has been range trading and closed the week above 18000.

WTI (/CL) oil futures closed for the week above $50 per barrel. It has been steadily trading and trending upward as can be seen on its weekly chart.

Gold futures (/GC) continues to be under selling pressure. It traded within a narrow range for the week.

The dollar index has been trending upward and has been attributed with causing the selling pressure in the equity market. Rising US dollar is not a positive for the US exporters.

Bonds continued is sell-off. US treasury bond futures has been in a downtrend over the last 3 months. Is the bond market a leading indicator of the equity market? If so, we can expect further downside to the equity market.

Economic data today was mixed, with strong retail sales, though inflation data crept higher and sentiment fell to its lowest level in over a year.

Dow Transportation surged upward in the first few minutes of trading but was immediately sold down. It traded downward for the rest of the day and closed at 8039.29 with an inverted hammer candle below its 8 EMA but above its 21 EMA. Momentum remains upward. Volumetric buying pressure is at 58.1%.

It closed with a spinning top doji candle above its moving averages on its weekly chart. The index is in its weekly and monthly Squeeze.

Dow Industrial gapped up and surged upward in the first hour of trading. It came under selling pressure and traded downward for the rest of the day and closed at 18138.38 with a small inverted hammer candle. Momentum remains downward. Short term volumetric buying pressure is at 77.2%. The index is in a monthly Squeeze.

It closed with a spinning top doji candle on its 21 EMA on its weekly chart. The uptrend remains.

Russell 2000 surged upward in the first hour of trading but came under selling pressure. It traded sharply downward during mid-morning trading and range traded for the rest of the day to close at 1212.4077 with an inverted hammer candle below its moving averages. Momentum is downward. Volumetric buying pressure is at 0%.

On the weekly chart, it closed with a big bearish candle above its 21 EMA. Momentum remains upward.

Nasdaq 100 traded sharply upward in the first hour and half of trading before selling off. It sold off till midday and then range traded for the rest of the day to close at 4808.4851 with a bearish marubozu candle below its 50 SMA. Momentum is upward. Volumetric buying pressure is at 62.6%. The index is in a monthly Squeeze.

On its weekly chart, it closed with a bearish candle on its 8 EMA and above its 21 EMA. Momentum remains upward.

S&P 500 surged upward on market open till the first hour and half before succumbing to selling pressure. It traded sharply downward till midday and range traded for the rest of the day and closed at 2132.98 with a bearish inverted hammer candle. Momentum is downward. Volumetric buying pressure is at 39.1%.

On its weekly chart, it closed with a bearish candle on its 21 EMA. Momentum remains upward.

Metals and Commodities (Weekly charts)
WTI Crude oil futures closed at $50.32 with a small bullish inverted hammer candle. It is in a volatility Squeeze and trending upward.

Gold futures closed at $1251.7 per ounce with a small bearish spinning top doji candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 200 SMA. Momentum is downward.

Silver futures closed at $17.420 per ounce with a small spinning to doji candle. Momentum is downward.

Agriculture (DBA) ETF closed at 20.18 in a continuing downtrend.

Commodities (DBC) ETF closed at 15.26 with a small bullish candle above its moving averages. It is Squeezing upward.

Bonds (Weekly charts)
Bond futures (/ZB) has been in a downtrend and closed the week at 163’04 with a bearish marubozu candle below its 50 week SMA.

High Yield bond ETF (HYG) closed at $86.86 with a small bearish candle above its moving averages. The uptrend continues.

Bonds ETF (TLT) gapped down and closed at 131.59 with a bearish marubozu candle below its 8 EMA and 21 EMA but above its 50 SMA. It is trending downward.

Currencies (Weekly charts)
The dollar index closed at 98.085 with a big marubozu candle above its moving averages. Momentum has turned upward and its is in a Squeeze.

EUR/USD closed at 1.09710 with a big bearish marubozu candle below its 8 EMA and 21 EMA.

USD/JPY closed at 104.159 with a bullish candle on its 21 EMA. Momentum remains downward.

Relative Strength – Sectors
On a monthly lookback, the relative strength order of the ETFs that are outperforming the S&P 500 are XLE, XLF, XLU, XLB, XLI, XLK, XLP and XLY respectively.

On a 3-monthly lookback, the relative strength order of the ETFs that are outperforming the S&P 500 are XLE, XLK, XLF, XLU, XLB, XLI, XLY and XLP respectively.

Market Internals
Vix closed at 16.12. Vix futures is at 16.625. Skew is at 121.86. Market sentiment has turned neutral. Market breadth is sloping downward. Volumetric accumulation/distribution is sharply downward.

The Week Ahead
Market internals and sentiment continue to show a shift to the downside. The market continues its volatility and market has adopted a risk-off profile. The US presidential election and the FED interest rate hike continue to weigh on the market. The bond market has been trending downwards and could be a leading indicator of what’s ahead for the equity market. The prognosis is for more volatility with downside selling pressure.

Stock of the Day
SHOP is the Stock of the Day. Shopify is the Canadian version of AliBaba and Amazon and it continues to grow and could be challenging Amazon in the North American market soon.

 

To YOUR wealth!

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