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27 January 2017 – Weekly Review – A week of new all-time highs


It has been a week of new all time highs in the indices after the US Presidential inauguration. With the market looking forward to tax cuts for businesses, it has reacted accordingly and if those tax cuts do not materialise, the market will have a big correction.

Oil futures is in holding mode with OPEC committed to production cuts but this has not caused oil price to go up. Balancing that is the Trump administration commitment to produce more oil via fracking.

The US dollar index is trending down as the Trump administration would like to see a weaker dollar. This will impact on the currency markets.

Bond market has been trending downward and is now range trading within a small cycle.

Indices (Weekly chart)
Dow Transportation touched a new all-time high of 9444.28 and closed at 9444.28 with a bullish candle above its moving averages. Weekly trading range was 411.329. Weekly momentum remains upward. BuySellTimer remains on its positive cycle.

Dow Industrial touched all-time high of 20125.58 and closed at 200093.78 with a bullish marubozu candle above its moving averages. Weekly trading range was 393.22. Weekly momentum remains upward. BuySellTimer remains on its positive cycle.

Russell 2000 closed at 1370.7043 with a bullish candle above its moving averages. Weekly trading range was 43.668. Momentum is upward. BuySellTimer has crossed into its positive cycle.

Nasdaq 100 touched an all-time high of 5172.43 and closed at 5168.0604 with a bullish marubozu candle above its moving averages. Weekly trading range was 136.938. Momentum remains upward. BuySellTimer is in its positive cycle. The index remains in a monthly Squeeze.

S&P 500 touched new all-time high of 2299.5 and closed at 2289.75 with a ‘rolling pin’ candle above its moving averages. Weekly trading range was 47.75. Momentum remains upward. BuySellTimer remains on its positive cycle.

Metals and Commodities (Weekly charts)
WTI Crude oil futures (CL) closed at $53.20 per barrel with a small doji candle above its moving averages. Weekly trading range was $1.869. Momentum is upward. BuySellTimer is in a positive cycle.

Gold futures (GC) closed at 1193.70 with a bearish ‘rolling pin’ candle below its 21 EMA but above its 8 EMA. Weekly trading range was 37.5. Momentum remains downward. BuySellTimer remains in its positive cycle.

Silver futures closed at 17.150 with a high closing doji candle on its 21 EMA. Weekly trading range was 0.674. Weekly momentum is downward. BuySellTimer is in its positive cycle.

Agriculture (DBA) ETF closed at 20.57 with a bearish candle below its 50 SMA but above its 21 EMA. Weekly trading range was 0.378. Momentum is upward. BuySellTimer has crossed into positive cycle.

Commodities (DBC) ETF closed at 15.75 with a doji candle above its moving averages. Weekly trading range was 0.29. Momentum is upward. BuySellTimer is in its positive cycle.

Bonds (Weekly charts)
Bond futures (/ZB) closed at 150’14 with a big doji candle below its moving averages. Weekly trading range was 3.531. Momentum is downward. BuySellTimer is in a negative cycle.

High Yield bond ETF (HYG) closed at 87.61 with a bullish candle above its moving averages. Weekly trading range was 0.649. BuySellTimer is in its positive cycle.

Currencies (Weekly charts)
The dollar index closed at 100.565 with a bearish hammer candle below its 8 EMA. Weekly range is 1.045. Momentum remains upward. BuySellTimer is in its negative cycle.

EUR/USD closed at 1.0699 with a doji candle above its 8 EMA. Weekly trading range was 0.011. Momentum remains downward.

USD/JPY closed at 115.12 with a bullish candle above its 8 EMA. Weekly trading range was 2.853. Weekly momentum remains upward.

Relative Strength – Sectors
On a monthly lookback, the relative strength order of the ETFs that are outperforming the S&P 500 are XLB, XLK, XLY, XLI and XLF respectively.

On a 3-monthly lookback, the relative strength order of the ETFs that are outperforming the S&P 500 are XLF, XLI, XLB, XLY, XLE and XLK respectively.

Market Internals
Vix closed at 10.58. Vix futures is at 12.525. Skew is at 129.95. Market sentiment remains bullish. Market breadth is sloping upward. Volumetric accumulation/distribution is sloping upward.

The Week Ahead
Market internals continue to show strength. The indices continue to break out to new all-time high. Vix is at an all-time low. The prognosis is that this market has legs and will continue to trend upwards.

Stock of the Day
The Stock of the Day is ADBE. Adobe Systems Incorporated is a software company. The Company offers products and services used by professionals, marketers, knowledge workers, application developers, enterprises and consumers for creating, managing, delivering, measuring, optimizing and engaging with compelling content and experiences.

 

To YOUR wealth!

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