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12 October 2018 – Weekly Review – Market Tumbles


Indices (Weekly chart)
Dow Transportation closed at 10489.29 with a big bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Weekly trading range was 904.06. Intermediate Cycle is positive with falling slope. Short term cycle is negative with falling slope. Market direction:- Sell. Fractal Bias – Neutral.

Dow Industrial closed at 25339.99 with a bearish candle below its 8 EMA and 21 EMA and above its 50 SMA. Weekly trading range was 1640.17 Intermediate Cycle is positive and falling slope. Short term cycle is positive and falling slope. Market direction:- Sell. Fractal Bias – Neutral.

Russell 2000 closed at 1546.68 with a big bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Weekly trading range was 105.007. Intermediate Cycle is positive and falling. Short term cycle is negative and falling. Market direction:- Sell. Fractal Bias – Bearish.

Nasdaq 100 closed at 7157.21 with a bearish candle below its 8 EMA and 21 EMA and above its 50 SMA. Weekly trading range was 537.47. Intermediate Cycle is positive and falling. Short term cycle is positive and falling. Market direction:- Sell. Fractal Bias – Bearish.

S&P 500 closed at 2767.13 with a big bearish candle below its 8 EMA and 21 EMA and above its 50 SMA. Weekly trading range was 184.32. Intermediate Cycle is positive and falling slope. Short term cycle is positive and falling slope. Market direction:- Sell. Fractal Bias – Neutral.

Metals and Commodities (Weekly charts)
WTI Crude oil futures (CL) closed at $71.51 per barrel with a bearish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Weekly trading range was 4.77. Intermediate Cycle is positive and rising slope. Short term cycle is positive and rising slope. Market direction:- Buy. Fractal Bias – Neutral.

Gold futures (GC) closed at 1221.6 with a bullish candle above its 8 EMA and below its 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Weekly trading range was 44. Intermediate Cycle is negative and rising. Short term cycle is negative and rising. Market direction:- Buy. Fractal Bias – Neutral.

Agriculture (DBA) ETF closed at 17.55 with a bullish candle above its 8 EMA and below its 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Weekly trading range was 0.346. Intermediate Cycle is negative and rising. Short term cycle is negative and rising. Market direction:- Buy. Fractal Bias – Neutral.

Commodities (DBC) ETF closed at 17.89 with a bearish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Weekly trading range was 0.705. Intermediate Cycle is positive and rising slope. Short term cycle is positive and rising slope. Market direction:- Buy. Fractal Bias – Bullish.

Bonds (Weekly charts)
Bond futures (/ZB) closed at 138’11 with a bullish harami candle pattern below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Weekly trading range was 2.469. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling slope. Short term cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction:- Sell. Fractal Bias – Bearish.

High Yield bond ETF (HYG) closed at 85.15 with a big bearish hammer candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Weekly trading range was 0.79. Intermediate Cycle is negative and flat. Short term cycle is positive and falling slope. Market direction:- Sell. Fractal Bias – Bearish.

Currencies (Weekly charts)
The dollar index ($DXY) closed at 95.233 with a bearish harami candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Weekly trading range was 1.201. Intermediate Cycle is positive and falling slope. Short term cycle is positive and falling slope. Market direction:- Sell. It is in a Weekly Squeeze. Fractal Bias – Bullish.

EUR/USD closed at 1.1556 with a spinning top doji candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Weekly trading range was 0.0178. Intermediate Cycle is negative and rising slope. Short term cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction:- Neutral. Fractal Bias – Bullish.

USD/JPY closed at 112.22 with a big bearish candle below its 8 EMA and above its 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Weekly trading range was 2.112. Intermediate Cycle is positive and rising. Short term cycle is positive and falling. Market direction:- Buy. Fractal Bias – Bullish.

6S (Swiss Franc) closed at 1.0140 with a doji candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Weekly trading range was 0.0098. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling slope. Short term cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction:- Sell. It is in monthly Squeeze. Fractal Bias – Neutral.

Relative Strength – Sectors
On a monthly lookback, the relative strength order of the ETFs that are outperforming the S&P 500 are XLK, XLU, XLY and XLV respectively.

On a 3-monthly lookback, the relative strength order of the ETFs that are outperforming the S&P 500 are XLV, XLK, XLU and XLY respectively.

Market Internals
Market Sentiment is bearish. Market Breadth continues to slope downwards showing more losers than gainers. Volume Acc/Dis is sloping downwards showing distribution. Skew is at 125.51. Vix is at 21.31 and Vix futures 20.05.

The Week Ahead
Market Internals continues to signal bearishness. Skew is normal. Vix and Vix futures have risen to above 20. All the indices are now pulling back. We have not reached oversold on the weekly chart. The prognosis is for the bearishness to continue into the coming week.

To YOUR wealth!

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