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26 October 2018 – Market pullback, lousy week for indices


Indices (Weekly chart)
Dow Transportation closed at 9965.67 with a big bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Weekly trading range was 664.39. Intermediate Cycle is positive with falling slope. Short term cycle is negative with falling slope. Market direction:- Sell. Fractal Bias – Bearish.

Dow Industrial closed at 24688.31 with a bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Weekly trading range was 1,116.15. Intermediate Cycle is positive and falling slope. Short term cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction:- Sell. Fractal Bias – Bearish.

Russell 2000 closed at 1483.8207 with a bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Weekly trading range was 92.2. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling. Short term cycle is negative and falling. Market direction:- Sell. Fractal Bias – Bearish.

Nasdaq 100 closed at 6852.4043 with a big bearish candle below its 8 EMA and 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Weekly trading range was 449.94. Intermediate Cycle is positive and falling. Short term cycle is negative and falling. Market direction:- Sell. Fractal Bias – Bearish.

S&P 500 closed at 2658.69 with a big bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Weekly trading range was 150.78. Intermediate Cycle is positive and falling slope. Short term cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction:- Sell. Fractal Bias – Bearish.

Metals and Commodities (Weekly charts)
WTI Crude oil futures (CL) closed at $67.62 per barrel with a bearish candle below its 8 EMA and 21 EMA and above its 50 SMA. Weekly trading range was 4.1. Intermediate Cycle is positive and falling slope. Short term cycle is positive and falling slope. Market direction:- Neutral. Fractal Bias – Neutral.

Gold futures (GC) closed at 1235.4 with a spinning top doji candle above its 8 EMA and 21 EMA and below its 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Weekly trading range was 23.2. Intermediate Cycle is negative and rising. Short term cycle is negative and rising. Market direction:- Buy. Fractal Bias – Bullish.

Agriculture (DBA) ETF closed at 17.72 with a bullish candle above its 8 EMA and 21 EMA and below its 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Weekly trading range was 0.29. Intermediate Cycle is negative and rising. Short term cycle is negative and rising. Market direction:- Buy. Fractal Bias – Bullish.

Commodities (DBC) ETF closed at 17.46 with a bearish candle below its 8 EMA and on its 21 EMA and above its 50 SMA. Weekly trading range was 0.557. Intermediate Cycle is positive and rising slope. Short term cycle is positive and negative slope. Market direction:- Sell. Fractal Bias – Neutral.

Bonds (Weekly charts)
Bond futures (/ZB) closed at 139’16 with a bullish candle pattern below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Weekly trading range was 2.156. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling slope. Short term cycle is negative and rising slope. Market direction:- Sell. Fractal Bias – Bearish.

High Yield bond ETF (HYG) closed at 84.923 with a big bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Weekly trading range was 0.985. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling slope. Short term cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction:- Sell. Fractal Bias – Bearish.

Currencies (Weekly charts)
The dollar index ($DXY) closed at 96.319 with a bullish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Weekly trading range was 1.391. Intermediate Cycle is positive and rising slope. Short term cycle is positive and rising slope. Market direction:- Buy. Fractal Bias – Bullish.

EUR/USD closed at 1.1404 with a bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA and above 200 SMA. Weekly trading range was 0.0214. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling slope. Short term cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction:- Sell. Fractal Bias – Bearish.

USD/JPY closed at 111.90 with a bearish candle below its 8 EMA and 200 SMA and above the 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Weekly trading range was 1.509. Intermediate Cycle is positive and falling. Short term cycle is positive and falling. Market direction:- Neutral. Fractal Bias – Neutral.

6S (Swiss Franc) closed at 1.0070 with a spinning top doji candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Weekly trading range was 0.0095. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling slope. Short term cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction:- Sell. Fractal Bias – Bearish. It is in monthly Squeeze.

Relative Strength – Sectors
On a monthly lookback, the relative strength order of the ETFs that are outperforming the S&P 500 are XLP, XLU, XLE, XLB, XLK, XLI and XLV respectively.

On a 3-monthly lookback, the relative strength order of the ETFs that are outperforming the S&P 500 are XLU, XLP, XLE, XLB, XLK, XLI and XLV respectively.

Market Internals
Market Sentiment is bearish. Market Breadth continues to slope downwards showing more losers than gainers. Volume Acc/Dis is sloping downwards showing distribution. Skew is at 121.70. Vix is at 24.16 and Vix futures 21.30.

The Week Ahead
Market Internals continue to show a market in distribution mode. Skew is normal. Vix is elevated above 24 and Vix futures is above 21. The prognosis is for further volatility for the rest of October.

To YOUR wealth!

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