21 December 2018 – Weekly Review – A horrible week … bad news here, there and everywhere
Indices (Weekly chart) Dow Transportation closed at 8874.79 with a big bearish marubozu candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Weekly trading range was 697.89. Intermediate Cycle is negative with falling slope. Short term cycle is negative with falling slope. Market Fractal direction:- Sell.
Dow Industrial closed at 22445.37 with a big bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Weekly trading range was 1,704.17. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling slope. Short term cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction:- Sell.
Russell 2000 closed at 1292.086 with a big bearish marubozu candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Weekly trading range was 127.62. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling. Short term cycle is negative and falling. Market direction:- Sell.
Nasdaq 100 closed at 6046.56 with a bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Weekly trading range was 607.65. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling slope. Short term cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction:- Sell.
S&P 500 closed at 2416.62 with a big bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Weekly trading range was 192.58. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling slope. Short term cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction:- Sell.
etals and Commodities (Weekly charts) WTI Crude oil futures (CL) closed at $45.42 per barrel with a big bearish marubozu candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Weekly trading range was 7.02. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling slope. Short term cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction:- Sell.
Gold futures (GC) closed at 1259.1 with a bullish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and below its 50 SMA. Weekly trading range was 30.9. Intermediate Cycle is negative and rising slope. Short term cycle is positive and rising slope. Market direction:- Buy.
Agriculture (DBA) ETF closed at 17.00 with a bearish marubozu candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Weekly trading range was 0.33. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling slope. Short term cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction:- Sell.
Commodities (DBC) ETF closed at 14.74 with a bearish marubozu candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Weekly trading range was 0.85. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling slope. Short term cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction:- Sell.
Bonds (Weekly charts) Bond futures (/ZB) closed at 144’21 with a bullish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Weekly trading range was 3.375. Intermediate Cycle is negative and rising slope. Short term cycle is positive and rising slope. Market direction:- Buy.
High Yield bond ETF (HYG) closed at 80.23 with a big bearish marubozu candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Weekly trading range was 3.15. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling slope. Short term cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction:- Sell.
Currencies (Weekly charts) The dollar index ($DXY) closed at 96.950 with a bearish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Weekly trading range was 1.291. Intermediate Cycle is positive and falling slope. Short term cycle is positive and falling slope. Market direction:- Buy. It is in a Squeeze.
EUR/USD closed at 1.1370 with a bullish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Weekly trading range was 0.0187. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling slope. Short term cycle is negative and rising slope. Market direction:- Sell.
USD/JPY closed at 111.22 with a big bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and above its 50 SMA. Weekly trading range was 2.707. Intermediate Cycle is positive and falling slope. Short term cycle is positive and falling slope. Market direction:- Sell.
6S (Swiss Franc) closed at 1.0130 with a low closing inverted hammer candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and below its 50 SMA. Weekly trading range was 0.0142. Intermediate Cycle is negative and rising slope. Short term cycle is negative and rising slope. Market direction:- Buy. It is in a monthly Squeeze.
Relative Strength – Sectors On a monthly lookback, the relative strength order of the ETFs that are outperforming the S&P 500 are XLE, XLK and XLK respectively.
On a 3-monthly lookback, the relative strength order of the ETFs that are outperforming the S&P 500 are XLU, XLE and XLK respectively.
Market Internals Market Sentiment is bearish. Market Breadth is sloping downwards showing more losers than gainers. Volume Acc/Dis is sloping downwards showing distribution. Skew is at 122.17. Vix is at 30.11 and Vix futures 24.00.
The Week Ahead Market Sentiment is bearish. Market Internals are showing weakness. Vix and Vix futures are above 30 and 24 respectively and is elevated. Skew is normal. The FED has raised rates and looks to continue to do so in 2019. Government shutdown is happening and adds to the market bearish and on top of the ongoing trade war. The prognosis is rather bearish for the market and continuing into 2019.
To YOUR wealth!
Would you like to learn to trade stocks, Options or Futures? Drop us an email at jefftohch@gmail.com or call +6010 4343 948. If you have been an unsuccessful trader and need personal tutorship, we can provide you with personal coaching to take you to be a profitable trader.
21 December 2018 – Weekly Review – A horrible week … bad news here, there and everywhere
Indices (Weekly chart)
Dow Transportation closed at 8874.79 with a big bearish marubozu candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Weekly trading range was 697.89. Intermediate Cycle is negative with falling slope. Short term cycle is negative with falling slope. Market Fractal direction:- Sell.
Dow Industrial closed at 22445.37 with a big bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Weekly trading range was 1,704.17. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling slope. Short term cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction:- Sell.
Russell 2000 closed at 1292.086 with a big bearish marubozu candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Weekly trading range was 127.62. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling. Short term cycle is negative and falling. Market direction:- Sell.
Nasdaq 100 closed at 6046.56 with a bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Weekly trading range was 607.65. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling slope. Short term cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction:- Sell.
S&P 500 closed at 2416.62 with a big bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Weekly trading range was 192.58. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling slope. Short term cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction:- Sell.
etals and Commodities (Weekly charts)
WTI Crude oil futures (CL) closed at $45.42 per barrel with a big bearish marubozu candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Weekly trading range was 7.02. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling slope. Short term cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction:- Sell.
Gold futures (GC) closed at 1259.1 with a bullish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and below its 50 SMA. Weekly trading range was 30.9. Intermediate Cycle is negative and rising slope. Short term cycle is positive and rising slope. Market direction:- Buy.
Agriculture (DBA) ETF closed at 17.00 with a bearish marubozu candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Weekly trading range was 0.33. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling slope. Short term cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction:- Sell.
Commodities (DBC) ETF closed at 14.74 with a bearish marubozu candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Weekly trading range was 0.85. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling slope. Short term cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction:- Sell.
Bonds (Weekly charts)
Bond futures (/ZB) closed at 144’21 with a bullish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Weekly trading range was 3.375. Intermediate Cycle is negative and rising slope. Short term cycle is positive and rising slope. Market direction:- Buy.
High Yield bond ETF (HYG) closed at 80.23 with a big bearish marubozu candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Weekly trading range was 3.15. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling slope. Short term cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction:- Sell.
Currencies (Weekly charts)
The dollar index ($DXY) closed at 96.950 with a bearish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Weekly trading range was 1.291. Intermediate Cycle is positive and falling slope. Short term cycle is positive and falling slope. Market direction:- Buy. It is in a Squeeze.
EUR/USD closed at 1.1370 with a bullish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Weekly trading range was 0.0187. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling slope. Short term cycle is negative and rising slope. Market direction:- Sell.
USD/JPY closed at 111.22 with a big bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and above its 50 SMA. Weekly trading range was 2.707. Intermediate Cycle is positive and falling slope. Short term cycle is positive and falling slope. Market direction:- Sell.
6S (Swiss Franc) closed at 1.0130 with a low closing inverted hammer candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and below its 50 SMA. Weekly trading range was 0.0142. Intermediate Cycle is negative and rising slope. Short term cycle is negative and rising slope. Market direction:- Buy. It is in a monthly Squeeze.
Relative Strength – Sectors
On a monthly lookback, the relative strength order of the ETFs that are outperforming the S&P 500 are XLE, XLK and XLK respectively.
On a 3-monthly lookback, the relative strength order of the ETFs that are outperforming the S&P 500 are XLU, XLE and XLK respectively.
Market Internals
Market Sentiment is bearish. Market Breadth is sloping downwards showing more losers than gainers. Volume Acc/Dis is sloping downwards showing distribution. Skew is at 122.17. Vix is at 30.11 and Vix futures 24.00.
The Week Ahead
Market Sentiment is bearish. Market Internals are showing weakness. Vix and Vix futures are above 30 and 24 respectively and is elevated. Skew is normal. The FED has raised rates and looks to continue to do so in 2019. Government shutdown is happening and adds to the market bearish and on top of the ongoing trade war. The prognosis is rather bearish for the market and continuing into 2019.
To YOUR wealth!
Would you like to learn to trade stocks, Options or Futures? Drop us an email at jefftohch@gmail.com or call +6010 4343 948. If you have been an unsuccessful trader and need personal tutorship, we can provide you with personal coaching to take you to be a profitable trader.
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