12 July 2019 – Weekly Review – Bulls dominate, Bears in ambush?

Indices (Weekly chart)
Dow Transportation closed at 10637.31 with a bullish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Weekly trading range – 394.75. Fractal Chaos Band – Within FCB. Long Cycle Wave – negative and rising. Medium Cycle Wave – positive and rising. Short Cycle Wave – positive and rising. Market direction – Strong UpTrend. Momentum – Strong Upward. RSI – 54.3.    

Dow Industrial closed at 27332.03 with a small bullish marubozu candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Weekly trading range – 668.22. Fractal Chaos Band – Broke above its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – positive and rising. Medium Cycle Wave – positive and rising. Short cycle Wave – positive and rising. Market direction – Strong UpTrend. Momentum – Strong Upward. It has exited its weekly Squeeze. RSI – 63.3.

Russell 2000 closed at 1569.9984 with a tiny candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Weekly trading range – 23.23. Fractal Chaos Band – Within FCB. Long Cycle Wave – negative and rising slope. Medium Cycle Wave – positive and rising slope. Short cycle Wave – positive and rising slope. Market direction – Strong UpTrend. Momentum – Strong Upward. It has exited its weekly Squeeze. RSI – 53.5.       

Nasdaq 100 closed at 7943.2411 with a bullish marubozu candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Weekly trading range – 195.84. Fractal Chaos Band – Above its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – positive and rising. Medium Cycle Wave – positive and rising. Short cycle – positive and rising. Market direction – Strong UpTrend. Momentum – Strong Upward. RSI – 64.2.       

S&P 500 closed at 3013.77 with a bullish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Weekly trading range – 50.48. Fractal Chaos Band – Above its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – positive and rising. Medium Cycle Wave – positive and rising. Short cycle Wave – positive and rising. Market direction – Strong UpTrend. Momentum – Strong Upward. RSI – 64.2.

Metals and Commodities (Weekly charts)
WTI Crude oil futures (CL) closed at $60.39 per barrel with a bullish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Weekly trading range was 3.65. Fractal Chaos Band – Within FCB. Long Cycle Wave – negative and rising. Medium Cycle Wave – negative and rising. Short cycle – positive and rising. Market direction:- Strong UpTrend. Momentum – Strong Upward.

Gold futures (GC) closed at 1417.8 with a bullish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Weekly trading range was 41.9. Fractal Chaos Band – Within FCB. Long Cycle Wave – positive and rising. Medium Cycle Wave – positive and rising. Short cycle – positive and falling. Market direction:- Strong UpTrend. Momentum – Weak Upward.

Bonds (Weekly charts)
Bond futures (/ZB) closed at 153’11 with a bearish candle below its 8 EMA and above its 21 EMA, 50 SMA, 200 SMA. Weekly trading range was 2.813. Fractal Chaos Band – Above its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – positive and rising. Medium Cycle Wave – positive and falling. Short cycle – positive and falling. Market direction:- Neutral. Momentum – Strong Upward.         

High Yield bond ETF (HYG) closed at 86.93 with small doji candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Weekly trading range – 0.41. Fractal Chaos Band – Within its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – positive and rising. Medium Cycle Wave – positive and rising. Short cycle – positive and rising. Market direction:- Strong UpTrend. Momentum – Strong Upward. RSI – 58.3.

Currencies (Weekly charts)
The dollar index ($DXY) closed at 96.722 with a bearish marubozu candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and above its 50 SMA, 200 SMA. Weekly trading range – 0.866. Fractal Chaos Band – Within its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – positive and falling. Medium Cycle Wave – negative and falling. Short cycle – negative and rising. Market direction:- Strong DownTrend. Momentum – Weak Downward. RSI – 49.4.

EUR/USD closed at 1.1269 with a small bullish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Weekly trading range – 0.0092. Fractal Chaos Band – Within its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – negative and rising. Medium Cycle Wave – negative and rising. Short cycle – positive and falling. Market direction:- Strong UpTrend. Momentum – Downward.   

USD/JPY closed at 108.45 with a small bullish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Weekly trading range – 1.103. Fractal Chaos Band – Below its FCB LowerBand. Long Cycle Wave – negative and falling. Medium Cycle Wave – negative and falling. Short cycle – negative and rising. Market direction:- DownTrend. Momentum – Downward.

Relative Strength – Sectors
On a 3-monthly lookback, the relative strength order of the ETFs that are outperforming the S&P 500 are XLF, XLY, XLK and XLI respectively.

On a 6-monthly lookback, the relative strength order of the ETFs that are outperforming the S&P 500 are XLF, XLY and XLK respectively.

Market Internals
Market Sentiment is bullish. Market Breadth is sloping upwards showing more gainers than losers. Volume Acc/Dis is sloping upwards showing accumulation. Skew is at 123.65. Vix is at 12.39 and Vix futures 13.12.

The Week Ahead
Market Sentiment continues to be bullish. Market Internals are showing strength. Vix is below 13 and Vix futures is now below 14. Skew is normal. The market continues to climb a wall of worries. With the strength in the economy, the prognosis is for continuing bullishness in the market.

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