20 March 2020 – Weekly Review – Oil tried to rally, Dow Industrial in Obama territory
Indices (Weekly chart) Dow Transportation ($DJT) gapped down and closed at 6837.72 with a big bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Weekly trading range – 1458.2. Fractal Chaos Band – closed below its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – negative and falling. Medium Cycle Wave – negative and falling. Short Cycle Wave – negative and falling. Market direction – Strong DownTrend. Momentum – Strong Downward. RSI – 22.9. It closed at 41.1% below its all-time high. It is in Bear Market Territory.
Dow Industrial ($DJI) gapped down and closed at 19173.98 with a big bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Weekly trading range – 4268.16. Fractal Chaos Band – closed below its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – negative and falling. Medium CycleWave – negative and falling. Short cycle Wave – negative and falling. Market direction – Strong DownTrend. Momentum – Strong Downward. RSI – 19.3. It closed at 35.1% below its all-time high. It is in Bear Market Territory.
Russell 2000 closed at 1013.889 with a big bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Weekly trading range – 243.92. Fractal Chaos Band – closed below its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – negative and falling slope. Medium Cycle Wave – negative and falling slope. Short Cycle Wave – negative and falling slope. Market direction – Strong DownTrend. Momentum – Strong Downward. RSI – 17.6. It closed at 41.8% below its all-time high. It is in a bear market.
Nasdaq 100 gapped down and closed at 6994.2911 with a big bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and above its 200 SMA. Weekly trading range – 1157.7308. Fractal Chaos Band – Below its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – positive and falling. Medium Cycle Wave – negative and falling. Short cycle – negative and falling. Market direction – Strong DownTrend. Momentum – Strong Downward. RSI – 29.9. The Nasdaq closed at 29.9% below its all-time high. It is now in a Bear Market.
S&P 500 (SPX) closed at 2911.02 with a reverse kicker bullish marubozu candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Weekly trading range – 230.69. Fractal Chaos Band – Below its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – positive and falling. Medium Cycle Wave – negative and falling. Short cycle Wave – negative and falling. Market direction – Strong DownTrend. Momentum – Strong Downward. RSI – 29.9.
Metals and Commodities (Weekly charts) WTI Crude oil futures (CL) closed at $23.64 per barrel with a big bearish marubozu candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Weekly trading range was 13.23. Fractal Chaos Band – Below its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – negative and falling slope. Medium Cycle Wave – negative and falling slope. Short cycle – negative and falling slope. Market direction:- Strong DownTrend. Momentum – Strong Downwards. RSI – 18.1.
Gold futures (GC) closed at 1501.1 with a big bearish candle above its 50 SMA, 200 SMA and below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA. Weekly trading range was 123.9. Fractal Chaos Band – closed within its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – positive and falling slope. Medium Cycle Wave – positive and falling slope. Short cycle – negative and falling slope. Market direction:- Strong DownTrend. Momentum – Strong Downward. RSI – 46.8.
Bonds (Weekly charts) Bond futures (/ZB) closed at 178’00 with a high closing spinning top doji candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA, 200 SMA. Weekly trading range was 15.5. Fractal Chaos Band – Closed above its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – positive and rising. Medium Cycle Wave – positive and rising. Short cycle – positive and falling. Market direction:- Strong UpTrend. Momentum – Weak Upward. RSI – 74.6.
High Yield bond ETF (HYG) gapped down and closed at 69.75 with a huge bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Weekly trading range – 10.62. Fractal Chaos Band – closed below its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – negative and falling slope. Medium Cycle Wave – negative and falling slope. Short cycle – negative and falling slope. Market direction:- Strong DownTrend. Momentum – Strong Downward. RSI – 9.2.
Currencies (Weekly charts) The dollar index ($DXY) closed at 101.947 with a ginormous bullish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Weekly trading range – 5.546. Fractal Chaos Band – Closed above its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – positive and rising slope. Medium Cycle Wave – positive and rising slope. Short cycle – positive and rising slope. Market direction:- Strong UpTrend. Momentum – Strong Upward. RSI – 64.5.
EUR/USD closed at 1.0689 with a ginomous bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA, 200 SMA. Weekly trading range – 0.0599. Fractal Chaos Band – Closed below its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – negative and falling slope. Medium Cycle Wave – negative and falling . Short cycle – negative and falling. Market direction:- Strong DownTrend. Momentum – Neutral. RSI – 37.9.
USD/JPY closed at 110.96 with a ginormous bullish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA, 200 SMA. Weekly trading range – 6.3569. Fractal Chaos Band – closed within its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – positive and rising slope. Medium Cycle Wave – positive and rising slope. Short cycle – positive and rising. Market direction:- Strong UpTrend. Momentum – Neutral. RSI – .55.6.
Relative Strength – Sectors On a 3-monthly lookback, the relative strength order of the ETFs are XLB, XLY, XLE, XLF, XLK, XLP, XLI, SPX, XLV, XLU, SPY and /ES respectively.
On a 12-monthly lookback, the relative strength order of the ETFs are XLB, XLY, XLE, XLF, XLK, XLI, XLP, SPX, XLV, XLU, SPY and /ES respectively.
Market Internals Market Sentiment is bearish. Market Breadth is sloping downwards showing more losers than gainers. Volume Acc/Dis is sloping downwards and showing distribution. Skew is at 118.12. Vix is at 66.04 and Vix futures 62.00.
The Week Ahead The market is that bearish that all indicators are broken. The market is now beyond fear. It has come down so much in such a short timeframe that it has created liquidity issues for those that are trading using margin account. Hence the blind panic in liquidating positions and the further the market falls, the less the liquidity. The perfect storm of the oil market tanking and the panic due to the spread of COVID-19 and the unpreparedness in the US and the world for the pandemic means that the market will remain under selling pressure for another few weeks.
To Your Wealth! Would you like to learn to trade stocks, Options or Futures? Drop us an email at jefftohch@gmail.com or call +6010 4343 948. If you have been an unsuccessful trader and need personal tutorship, we can provide you with personal coaching to take you to be a profitable trader.
20 March 2020 – Weekly Review – Oil tried to rally, Dow Industrial in Obama territory
Indices (Weekly chart)
Dow Transportation ($DJT) gapped down and closed at 6837.72 with a big bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Weekly trading range – 1458.2. Fractal Chaos Band – closed below its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – negative and falling. Medium Cycle Wave – negative and falling. Short Cycle Wave – negative and falling. Market direction – Strong DownTrend. Momentum – Strong Downward. RSI – 22.9. It closed at 41.1% below its all-time high. It is in Bear Market Territory.
Dow Industrial ($DJI) gapped down and closed at 19173.98 with a big bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Weekly trading range – 4268.16. Fractal Chaos Band – closed below its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – negative and falling. Medium Cycle Wave – negative and falling. Short cycle Wave – negative and falling. Market direction – Strong DownTrend. Momentum – Strong Downward. RSI – 19.3. It closed at 35.1% below its all-time high. It is in Bear Market Territory.
Russell 2000 closed at 1013.889 with a big bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Weekly trading range – 243.92. Fractal Chaos Band – closed below its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – negative and falling slope. Medium Cycle Wave – negative and falling slope. Short Cycle Wave – negative and falling slope. Market direction – Strong DownTrend. Momentum – Strong Downward. RSI – 17.6. It closed at 41.8% below its all-time high. It is in a bear market.
Nasdaq 100 gapped down and closed at 6994.2911 with a big bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and above its 200 SMA. Weekly trading range – 1157.7308. Fractal Chaos Band – Below its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – positive and falling. Medium Cycle Wave – negative and falling. Short cycle – negative and falling. Market direction – Strong DownTrend. Momentum – Strong Downward. RSI – 29.9. The Nasdaq closed at 29.9% below its all-time high. It is now in a Bear Market.
S&P 500 (SPX) closed at 2911.02 with a reverse kicker bullish marubozu candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Weekly trading range – 230.69. Fractal Chaos Band – Below its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – positive and falling. Medium Cycle Wave – negative and falling. Short cycle Wave – negative and falling. Market direction – Strong DownTrend. Momentum – Strong Downward. RSI – 29.9.
Metals and Commodities (Weekly charts)
WTI Crude oil futures (CL) closed at $23.64 per barrel with a big bearish marubozu candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Weekly trading range was 13.23. Fractal Chaos Band – Below its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – negative and falling slope. Medium Cycle Wave – negative and falling slope. Short cycle – negative and falling slope. Market direction:- Strong DownTrend. Momentum – Strong Downwards. RSI – 18.1.
Gold futures (GC) closed at 1501.1 with a big bearish candle above its 50 SMA, 200 SMA and below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA. Weekly trading range was 123.9. Fractal Chaos Band – closed within its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – positive and falling slope. Medium Cycle Wave – positive and falling slope. Short cycle – negative and falling slope. Market direction:- Strong DownTrend. Momentum – Strong Downward. RSI – 46.8.
Bonds (Weekly charts)
Bond futures (/ZB) closed at 178’00 with a high closing spinning top doji candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA, 200 SMA. Weekly trading range was 15.5. Fractal Chaos Band – Closed above its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – positive and rising. Medium Cycle Wave – positive and rising. Short cycle – positive and falling. Market direction:- Strong UpTrend. Momentum – Weak Upward. RSI – 74.6.
High Yield bond ETF (HYG) gapped down and closed at 69.75 with a huge bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Weekly trading range – 10.62. Fractal Chaos Band – closed below its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – negative and falling slope. Medium Cycle Wave – negative and falling slope. Short cycle – negative and falling slope. Market direction:- Strong DownTrend. Momentum – Strong Downward. RSI – 9.2.
Currencies (Weekly charts)
The dollar index ($DXY) closed at 101.947 with a ginormous bullish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Weekly trading range – 5.546. Fractal Chaos Band – Closed above its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – positive and rising slope. Medium Cycle Wave – positive and rising slope. Short cycle – positive and rising slope. Market direction:- Strong UpTrend. Momentum – Strong Upward. RSI – 64.5.
EUR/USD closed at 1.0689 with a ginomous bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA, 200 SMA. Weekly trading range – 0.0599. Fractal Chaos Band – Closed below its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – negative and falling slope. Medium Cycle Wave – negative and falling . Short cycle – negative and falling. Market direction:- Strong DownTrend. Momentum – Neutral. RSI – 37.9.
USD/JPY closed at 110.96 with a ginormous bullish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA, 200 SMA. Weekly trading range – 6.3569. Fractal Chaos Band – closed within its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – positive and rising slope. Medium Cycle Wave – positive and rising slope. Short cycle – positive and rising. Market direction:- Strong UpTrend. Momentum – Neutral. RSI – .55.6.
Relative Strength – Sectors
On a 3-monthly lookback, the relative strength order of the ETFs are XLB, XLY, XLE, XLF, XLK, XLP, XLI, SPX, XLV, XLU, SPY and /ES respectively.
On a 12-monthly lookback, the relative strength order of the ETFs are XLB, XLY, XLE, XLF, XLK, XLI, XLP, SPX, XLV, XLU, SPY and /ES respectively.
Market Internals
Market Sentiment is bearish. Market Breadth is sloping downwards showing more losers than gainers. Volume Acc/Dis is sloping downwards and showing distribution. Skew is at 118.12. Vix is at 66.04 and Vix futures 62.00.
The Week Ahead
The market is that bearish that all indicators are broken. The market is now beyond fear. It has come down so much in such a short timeframe that it has created liquidity issues for those that are trading using margin account. Hence the blind panic in liquidating positions and the further the market falls, the less the liquidity. The perfect storm of the oil market tanking and the panic due to the spread of COVID-19 and the unpreparedness in the US and the world for the pandemic means that the market will remain under selling pressure for another few weeks.
To Your Wealth!
Would you like to learn to trade stocks, Options or Futures? Drop us an email at jefftohch@gmail.com or call +6010 4343 948. If you have been an unsuccessful trader and need personal tutorship, we can provide you with personal coaching to take you to be a profitable trader.
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