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14 September 2018 – Weekly Review – Trade war hots up


Indices (Weekly chart)
Dow Transportation closed at 11570.67 with a bullish marubozu candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Weekly trading range was 276.04. Intermediate Cycle is positive with rising slope. Short term cycle is positive with rising slope. Market direction:- Buy. Fractal Bias – Bullish.

Dow Industrial closed at 26154.67 with a bullish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Weekly trading range was 456.79. Intermediate Cycle is positive and rising slope. Short term cycle is positive and rising slope. Market direction:- Buy. Fractal Bias – Bullish.

Russell 2000 closed at 1721.7195 with a small spinning top doji candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Weekly trading range was 21.92. Intermediate Cycle is positive and rising. Short term cycle is positive and falling. Market direction:- Buy. Fractal Bias – Bullish.

Nasdaq 100 closed at 7545.496 with a spinning top doji candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Weekly trading range was 179.58. Intermediate Cycle is positive and rising. Short term cycle is positive and falling. Market direction:- Buy. Fractal Bias – Bullish.

S&P 500 closed at 2904.98 with a bullish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Weekly trading range was 41.52. Intermediate Cycle is positive and rising slope. Short term cycle is positive and rising slope. Market direction:- Buy. Fractal Bias – Bullish.

Metals and Commodities (Weekly charts)
WTI Crude oil futures (CL) closed at $68.98 per barrel with a bullish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Weekly trading range was 3.93. Intermediate Cycle is positive and falling slope. Short term cycle is positive and falling slope. Market direction:- Neutral. Fractal Bias – Neutral.

Gold futures (GC) closed at 1198.3 with a low closing doji candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Weekly trading range was 25.3. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling. Short term cycle is negative and rising. Market direction:- Neutral. Fractal Bias – Bearish.

Agriculture (DBA) ETF closed at 17.05 with a bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Weekly trading range was 0.23. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling. Short term cycle is negative and rising. Market direction:- Neutral. Fractal Bias – Bearish.

Commodities (DBC) ETF closed at 17.20 with a low closing spinning top doji candle intertwined with its 8 EMA and 21 EMA and above its 50 SMA. Weekly trading range was 0.39. Intermediate Cycle is positive and falling slope. Short term cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction:- Neutral. Fractal Bias – Bearish.

Bonds (Weekly charts)
Bond futures (/ZB) closed at 141’23 with a bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Weekly trading range was 1.3125. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling slope. Short term cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction:- Sell. It is in a Squeeze. Fractal Bias – Bearish.

High Yield bond ETF (HYG) closed at 86.33 with a bullish candle above its 8 EMA and 21 EMA and below its 50 SMA. Weekly trading range was 0.69. Intermediate Cycle is negative and rising slope. Short term cycle is positive and rising slope. Market direction:- Neutral. It is in a Squeeze. Fractal Bias – Bearish.

Currencies (Weekly charts)
The dollar index ($DXY) closed at 94.949 with a spinning top doji candle below its 8 EMA and above its 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Weekly trading range was 1.205. Intermediate Cycle is positive and falling slope. Short term cycle is positive and falling slope. Market direction:- Neutral. Fractal Bias – Bullish.

EUR/USD closed at 1.1626 with a bullish candle above its 8 EMA and below its 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Weekly trading range was 0.0195. Intermediate Cycle is negative and rising slope. Short term cycle is negative and rising slope. Market direction:- Buy. Fractal Bias – Bearish.

USD/JPY closed at 112.08 with a bullish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Weekly trading range was 1.319. Intermediate Cycle is positive and rising. Short term cycle is positive and rising. Market direction:- Buy. It is in a monthly Squeeze. Fractal Bias – Bullish.

6S (Swiss Franc) closed at 1.0422 with a bullish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Weekly trading range was 0.0212. Intermediate Cycle is negative and rising slope. Short term cycle is positive and rising slope. Market direction:- Buy. It is in a daily and weekly Squeeze. Fractal Bias – Bullish.

Relative Strength – Sectors
On a monthly lookback, the relative strength order of the ETFs that are outperforming the S&P 500 are XLI, XLY, XLV, XLE, XLK and XLB respectively.

On a 3-monthly lookback, the relative strength order of the ETFs that are outperforming the S&P 500 are XLV, XLI, XLU, XLK, XLY and XLP respectively.

Market Internals
Market Sentiment is bullish. Market Breadth is sloping downwards showing more losers than gainers. Volume Acc/Dis is sloping upwards showing accumulation. Skew is at 151.59. Vix is at 12.07 and Vix futures 12.95.

The Week Ahead
Market internals are sending mix message. Vix and Vix futures have gone down below 13 and Skew is above 151 which is extremely elevated. The prognosis is for a volatile market trending sideways and with a potential for a major move downwards.

To YOUR wealth!

Would you like to learn to trade stocks, Options or Futures? Drop us an email at jefftohch@gmail.com or call +6010 4343 948. If you have been an unsuccessful trader and need personal tutorship, we can provide you with personal coaching to take you to be a profitable trader.


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