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1 October 2018 – Has the Top been reached for 2018?

Indices
Dow Transportation closed at 11409.96 with a low closing doji candle on its 8 EMA and 21 EMA and above its 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 114.92. Intermediate Cycle is positive and falling slope. Short Term Cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction – Neutral. Fractal Bias – Bearish.

Dow Industrial closed at 26651.21 with an inverted hammer candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 279.67. Intermediate Cycle is positive and falling slope. Short Cycle is positive and falling slope. Market direction – Buy. Fractal Bias – Bullish.

Russell 2000 closed at 1672.99 with a big bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 33.98. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling. Short Cycle is negative and falling. Market direction: Sell. Fractal Bias – Bearish.

Nasdaq 100 closed at 7645.45 with a bearish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 73.09. Intermediate Cycle is positive and rising slope. Short Cycle is positive and rising slope. Market direction: Buy. Fractal Bias – Bullish.

S&P 500 closed at 2924.59 with a doji candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 23.08. Intermediate Cycle is positive and falling slope. Short Cycle is positive and falling slope. Market direction: Buy. Fractal Bias – Bullish.

Metals and Commodities
WTI Crude oil futures (CL) closed at $75.47 per barrel with a big bullish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 2.82. Intermediate Cycle is positive and rising slope. Short Cycle is positive and rising slope. Market direction: Buy. Fractal Bias – Bullish.

Gold futures (GC) closed at 1192.6 with a bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 8.4. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling slope. Short Cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction: Sell. Fractal Bias – Bearish.

Agriculture (DBA) ETF closed at 17.05 with a bullish candle above its 8 EMA and 21 EMA and below its 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.16. Intermediate Cycle is negative and rising slope. Short Cycle is negative and rising slope. Market direction: Buy. Fractal Bias – Neutral.

Commodities (DBC) ETF closed at 18.31 with a bullish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.395. Intermediate Cycle is positive and rising slope. Short Cycle is positive and rising slope. Market direction: Buy. Fractal Bias – Bullish.

Bonds
Bond futures (/ZB) closed at 139’27 with a bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.625. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling slope. Short Cycle is negative and rising slope. Market direction: Sell. Fractal Bias – Bearish.

High Yield bond ETF (HYG) closed at 86.38 with a bullish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.30. Intermediate Cycle is positive and rising slope. Short Cycle is positive and rising slope. Market direction: Buy. Fractal Bias – Neutral.

Currency
The dollar index ($DXY) closed at 95.303 with a bullish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and above its 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.37. Intermediate Cycle is negative and rising slope. Short Cycle is positive and rising slope. Market direction: Buy. Fractal Bias – Bearish.

EUR/USD closed at 1.1577 with a bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.006. Intermediate Cycle is positive and falling. Short Cycle is negative and falling. Market direction: Sell. Fractal Bias – Neutral.

USD/JPY closed at 113.90 with a bullish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.38. Intermediate Cycle is positive and rising. Short Cycle is positive and rising slope. Market direction: Buy. Fractal Bias – Bullish.

6S (Swiss Franc) – closed at 1.0234 with a bearish candle below its 8 EMA and 21 EMA and on its 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.005. Intermediate Cycle is positive and falling. Short Cycle is negative and falling. Market direction: Sell. Fractal Bias – Bearish.

Relative Strength – Sectors On a monthly lookback, the relative strength order of the ETFs that are outperforming the S&P 500 are XLE, XLV, XLK, XLI and XLU.

On a 3-monthly lookback, the relative strength order of the ETFs that are outperforming the S&P 500 are XLV, XLI and XLK respectively.

Market Internals
Market sentiment is Bullish. Market breadth continues to slope downwards showing nett losers to gainers. Volume Accumulation/ Distribution is sloping upwards showing nett contribution. Skew is at 141.52. Vix is at 12.00 and Vix futures is at 13.95.

The Week Ahead
The two indices leading the market tends to be the Dow Transportation and Russell 2000. Both are trending downwards and is very likely leading the market downwards even as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 continues to be near all-time highs. Has the top been reached for both Nasdaq and the S&P 500?

Oil is now barrelling upwards and gold is trying to find its bottom. The US Treasury bond is likely to have found its bottom.

Skew is normal. Market breadth continues to deteriorate and market volume is about flattened show no significant accummulation or distribution. Vix is still not showing sign of fear and Vix futures has actually dropped. The prognosis is for a sideway market and a potential for the market to make a big move downwards. Trade cautiously.

To YOUR wealth!

Would you like to learn to trade stocks, Options or Futures? Drop us an email at jefftohch@gmail.com or call +6010 4343 948. If you have been an unsuccessful trader and need personal tutorship, we can provide you with personal coaching to take you to be a profitable trader.


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