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26 November 2018 – An Up day in a down trend

Indices
Dow Transportation closed at 10476.55 with a small bullish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and below its 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 127.55. Intermediate Cycle is negative and rising slope. Short Term Cycle is negative and falling. Market direction – Sell. Fractal Bias – Bullish.

Dow Industrial closed at 24640.24 with a bullish marubozu candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 387.34. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling slope. Short Term Cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction – Sell. Fractal Bias – Bearish.

Russell 2000 closed at 1505.9583 with a bullish marubozu candle above its 8 EMA and below its 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 21.61. Intermediate Cycle is negative and rising. Short Cycle is negative and falling. Market direction: Sell. Fractal Bias – Bullish.

Nasdaq 100 closed at 6678.339 with a bullish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 152.56. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling slope. Short Cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction: Sell. Fractal Bias – Bearish.

S&P 500 closed at 2673.45 with a bullish marubozu candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 41.79. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling slope. Short Cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction: Sell. Fractal Bias – Bearish.

Metals and Commodities
WTI Crude oil futures (CL) closed at $51.6 per barrel with a ‘rolling pin’ candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 2.15. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling slope. Short Cycle is negative and rising slope. Market direction: Sell. Fractal Bias – Bearish.

Gold futures (GC) closed at 1222.3 with a low closing spinning top doji candle on its 8 EMA and 21 EMA and above its 50 SMA and below its 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 6.9. Intermediate Cycle is positive and falling slope. Short Cycle is negative and rising slope. Market direction: Sell. Fractal Bias – Bearish. It is in a weekly Squeeze.

Agriculture (DBA) ETF closed at 17.08 with a bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.14. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling slope. Short Cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction: Sell. Fractal Bias – Bearish. It is in a weekly Squeeze.

Commodities (DBC) ETF closed at 15.34 with an inverted hammer candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.14. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling slope. Short Cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction: Sell. Fractal Bias – Bearish.

Bonds
Bond futures (/ZB) closed at 140 with a hammer candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and below its 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.5312. Intermediate Cycle is positive and rising slope. Short Cycle is positive and rising slope. Market direction: Buy. Fractal Bias – Bullish.

High Yield bond ETF (HYG) gapped up and closed at 83.10 with a spinning top doji candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.43. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling slope. Short Cycle is negative and rising slope. Market direction: Sell. Fractal Bias- Bearish.

Currency
The dollar index ($DXY) closed at 97.059 with a bullish ‘hammer’ candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.44. Intermediate Cycle is positive and falling slope. Short Cycle is positive and rising slope. Market direction: Bullish. Fractal Bias – Bearish. It is in a daily and Weekly Squeeze.

EUR/USD closed at 1.1326 with an inverted hammer candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.0058. Intermediate Cycle is negative and rising. Short Cycle is negative and falling. Market direction: Sell. Fractal Bias – Bearish.

USD/JPY closed at 113.56 with a bullish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.7729. Intermediate Cycle is positive and falling slope. Short Cycle is positive and rising slope. Market direction: Buy. Fractal Bias – Bullish.

6S (Swiss Franc) – closed at 1.0031 with a bearish low closing spinning top doji candle on its 21 EMA and below its 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.004. Intermediate Cycle is negative and rising. Short Cycle is positive and rising. Market direction: Buy. Fractal Bias – Bearish.

Relative Strength – Sectors On a monthly lookback, the relative strength order of the ETFs that are outperforming the S&P 500 are XLB, XLF, XLI, XLV, XLY, XLK and XLU.

On a 3-monthly lookback, the relative strength order of the ETFs that are outperforming the S&P 500 are XLB, XLF, XLU, XLP, XLV, XLI, XLI, XLY and XLK respectively.

Market Internals
Market Sentiment is bullish. Market Bread is sloping upwards showing more gainers than losers. Volume Acc/Dis is sloping upwards and showing accumulation. Skew is at 117.57. Vix is at 18.90 and Vix Futures is at 19.15.

The Week Ahead
Market internals are showing some strength. Vix has come down to below 19 and Vix futures are below 20. Skew is normal. The market is expecting the G-20 to have a positive outcome. The prognosis is for a continuing market volatility.

To YOUR wealth!
Would you like to learn to trade stocks, Options or Futures? Drop us an email at jefftohch@gmail.com or call +6010 4343 948. If you have been an unsuccessful trader and need personal tutorship, we can provide you with personal coaching to take you to be a profitable trader.


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