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22 January 2019 – Indices at crossroad
Indices
Russell 2000 closed at 1457.4542 with a bearish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and below its 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 31.49. Intermediate Cycle is positive and rising slope. Short Cycle is positive and rising slope. Market direction: Buy.
Nasdaq 100 closed at 6646.81 with a bearish candle on its 8 EMA and above its 21 EMA, 50 SMA and below its 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 181.04. Intermediate Cycle is positive and rising slope. Short Cycle is positive and rising slope. Market direction: Buy.
S&P 500 closed at 2632.90 with a bearish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and below its 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 53.44. Intermediate Cycle is negative and rising slope. Short Cycle is positive and rising slope. Market direction: Buy.
Metals and Commodities
WTI Crude oil futures (CL) closed at $52.99 per barrel with a bearish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and below its 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 2.47. Intermediate Cycle is positive and rising slope. Short Cycle is positive and rising slope. Market direction: Buy.
Gold futures (GC) closed at 1284.7 with a bullish candle below its 8 EMA and above its 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 9. Intermediate Cycle is positive and falling slope. Short Cycle is positive and falling slope. Market direction: Sell.
Commodities (DBC) ETF closed at 15.45 with a doji candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and below its 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.225. Intermediate Cycle is negative and rising slope. Short Cycle is positive and rising slope. Market direction: Buy.
Bonds
Bond futures (/ZB) closed at 145’08 with a bullish candle on its 8 EMA and above its 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 1.125. Intermediate Cycle is positive and falling slope. Short Cycle is positive and falling slope. Market direction: Sell.
High Yield bond ETF (HYG) closed at 83.94 with a bearish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and below its 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.67. Intermediate Cycle is positive and rising slope. Short Cycle is positive and falling slope. Market direction: Buy.
Currency
The dollar index ($DXY) closed at 96.453 with a bullish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 200 SMA and below its 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.282. Intermediate Cycle is negative and rising slope. Short Cycle is positive and rising slope. Market direction: Buy.
EUR/USD closed at 1.359 with a doji candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA, 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.0037. Intermediate Cycle is positive and falling slope. Short Cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction: Sell. It is in a daily and weekly Squeeze.
USD/JPY closed at 109.24 with a small bullish candle above its 8 EMA and below its 21 EMA, 50 SMA, 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.708. Intermediate Cycle is negative and rising slope. Short Cycle is negative and rising slope. Market direction: Buy.
Relative Strength – Sectors On a monthly lookback, the relative strength order of the ETFs that are outperforming the S&P 500 are XLE, XLF, XLI and XLY.
On a 3-monthly lookback, the relative strength order of the ETFs that are outperforming the S&P 500 are XLE, XLF, XLI and XLY respectively.
Market Internals
Market Sentiment has turned bearish. Market Breadth is sloping upwards showing more gainers than losers. Volume Acc/Dis is sloping upwards and showing accumulation. Skew is at 122.82. Vix is at 20.80 and Vix Futures is at 20.05.
The Week Ahead
Market Sentiment has turned bearish. The indices still have the Tom DeMark Sell signals. Vix and Vix futures have risen to above 20. Skew is normal. Market internals are still showing strength. The indices is pulling back and also awaiting further catalyst to move either direction. The prognosis is for a volatile market.
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