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23 January 2019 – Will the Trade War escalates?

Indices
Dow Transportation closed at 9734.92 with a bearish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and below its 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 376.78. Intermediate Cycle is negative and rising slope. Short Term Cycle is positive and rising slope. Market direction – Buy. 

Dow Industrial closed at 24575.62 with a doji candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and below its 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 399.18. Intermediate Cycle is negative and rising slope. Short Term Cycle is positive and rising slope. Market direction – Buy. 

Russell 2000 closed at 1454.2553 with a doji candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and below its 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 23.51. Intermediate Cycle is positive and rising slope. Short Cycle is positive and falling slope. Market direction: Buy. 

Nasdaq 100 closed at 6658.7634 with a bearish spinning top doji candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and below its 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 128.37. Intermediate Cycle is positive and rising slope. Short Cycle is positive and falling slope. Market direction: Buy.

S&P 500 closed at 2638.70 with a doji candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and below its 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 40.33. Intermediate Cycle is positive and rising slope. Short Cycle is positive and rising slope. Market direction: Buy.    

Metals and Commodities
WTI Crude oil futures (CL) closed at $52.43 per barrel with a spinning top doji candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and below its 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 1.78. Intermediate Cycle is positive and rising slope. Short Cycle is positive and falling slope. Market direction: Buy.    

Gold futures (GC) closed at 1281.9 with a bearish candle below its 8 EMA and above its 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 8.3. Intermediate Cycle is positive and falling slope. Short Cycle is positive and falling slope. Market direction: Sell.

Commodities (DBC) ETF closed at 15.43 with a bearish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and below its 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.165. Intermediate Cycle is positive and rising slope. Short Cycle is positive and rising slope. Market direction: Buy.   

Bonds
Bond futures (/ZB) closed at 145’04 with a high closing doji candle below its 8 EMA and above its 21 EMA, 50 SMA, 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.875. Intermediate Cycle is positive and falling slope. Short Cycle is positive and falling slope. Market direction: Sell.  

High Yield bond ETF (HYG) closed at 84.11 with a spinning top doji candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and below its 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.36. Intermediate Cycle is positive and rising slope. Short Cycle is positive and falling slope. Market direction: Buy. 

Currency
The dollar index ($DXY) closed at 96.11 with a bearish candle on its 8 EMA and below its 21 EMA, 50 SMA and above its 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.408. Intermediate Cycle is negative and rising slope. Short Cycle is positive and rising slope. Market direction: Buy.      

EUR/USD closed at 1.379 with a bullish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 200 SMA, 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.0043. Intermediate Cycle is positive and falling slope. Short Cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction: Sell. It is in a daily and weekly Squeeze.

USD/JPY closed at 109.57 with a small bullish candle above its 8 EMA and on its 21 EMA and below its 50 SMA, 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.683. Intermediate Cycle is negative and rising slope. Short Cycle is negative and rising slope. Market direction: Buy. 

Relative Strength – Sectors On a monthly lookback, the relative strength order of the ETFs that are outperforming the S&P 500 are XLF, XLE, XLY and XLI.

On a 3-monthly lookback, the relative strength order of the ETFs that are outperforming the S&P 500 are XLF, XLE, XLY and XLI respectively.  

Market Internals
Market Sentiment is bearish. Market Breadth is sloping upwards showing more gainers than losers. Volume Acc/Dis is sloping upwards and showing accumulation. Skew is at 123.88. Vix is at 19.52 and Vix Futures is at 19.75.   

The Week Ahead
The indices remain bullish and have started to trend sideways. It is waiting for a catalyst to continue its move upwards and so far, that has not happened. The US-China Trade war has not abated and if that cannot be resolved, it is likely that the market will reverse its recent course and move downwards. We might have to wait till early February 2019 before seeing any definite move upwards or downwards.

To YOUR wealth!
Would you like to learn to trade stocks, Options or Futures? Drop us an email at jefftohch@gmail.com or call +6010 4343 948. If you have been an unsuccessful trader and need personal tutorship, we can provide you with personal coaching to take you to be a profitable trader.


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