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Z5 Fri, 24 May 2024

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22 March 2019 – Weekly Review – Reversal downwards


Indices (Weekly chart)
Dow Transportation closed at 10052.30 with a bearish marubozu candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and above its 200 SMA. Weekly trading range was 406.86. Intermediate Cycle is negative with rising slope. Short term cycle is positive with falling slope. Market direction:- Buy.     

Dow Industrial closed at 25502.32 with a bearish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Weekly trading range was 608.23. Intermediate Cycle is positive and rising slope. Short term cycle is positive and rising slope. Market direction:- Buy.   

Russell 2000 closed at 1505.9228 with a bearish marubozu candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and above its 50 SMA. Weekly trading range was 65.02. Intermediate Cycle is negative and rising. Short term cycle is positive and falling. Market direction:- Buy.      

Nasdaq 100 closed at 7326.0567 with a low closing doji candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Weekly trading range was 211.56. Intermediate Cycle is positive and rising slope. Short term cycle is positive and rising slope. Market direction:- Buy.         

S&P 500 closed at 2800.71 with a bearish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Weekly trading range was 59.84. Intermediate Cycle is positive and rising slope. Short term cycle is positive and rising slope. Market direction:- Buy.

Metals and Commodities (Weekly charts)
WTI Crude oil futures (CL) closed at $58.97 per barrel with a doji candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 200 SMA and below its 50 SMA. Weekly trading range was 2.11. Intermediate Cycle is negative and rising slope. Short term cycle is positive and rising slope. Market direction:- Buy.

Gold futures (GC) closed at 1313.4 with a bullish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA , 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Weekly trading range was 22.2. Intermediate Cycle is positive and rising slope. Short term cycle is positive and falling slope. Market direction:- Buy.  

Bonds (Weekly charts)
Bond futures (/ZB) closed at 148’25 with a big bullish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and below its 200 SMA. Weekly trading range was 3.75. Intermediate Cycle is positive and rising slope. Short term cycle is positive and rising slope. Market direction:- Buy.         

High Yield bond ETF (HYG) closed at 85.84 with a doji candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Weekly trading range was 0.65. Intermediate Cycle is positive and rising slope. Short term cycle is positive and rising slope. Market direction:- Buy.         

Currencies (Weekly charts)
The dollar index ($DXY) closed at 96.601 with a high closing doji candle on its 8 EMA and above its 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Weekly trading range was 1.066. Intermediate Cycle is positive and falling slope. Short term cycle is positive and falling slope. Market direction:- Sell. It is in a Squeeze.

EUR/USD closed at 1.1299 with a low closing doji candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Weekly trading range was 0.0174. Intermediate Cycle is negative and rising slope. Short term cycle is negative and rising slope. Market direction:- Buy.       

USD/JPY closed at 109.97 with a big bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Weekly trading range was 1.95. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling slope. Short term cycle is negative and rising slope. Market direction:- Sell.    

6S (Swiss Franc) closed at 1.0144 with a bullish marubozu candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and below 200 SMA. Weekly trading range was 0.013. Intermediate Cycle is negative and rising slope. Short term cycle is negative and rising slope. Market direction:- Buy. It is in a weekly and monthly Squeeze.  

Relative Strength – Sectors
On a monthly lookback, the relative strength order of the ETFs that are outperforming the S&P 500 are XLK, XLU, XLY, XLE, and XLP respectively.

On a 3-monthly lookback, the relative strength order of the ETFs that are outperforming the S&P 500 are XLK, XLE, XLI and XLY respectively.

Market Internals
Market Sentiment is neutral. Market Breadth is sloping downwards showing losers than gainers. Volume Acc/Dis is sloping downwards showing distribution. Skew is at 117.55. Vix is at 16.48 and Vix futures 16.80.

The Week Ahead
The market closed on Friday with big bearish candles on its indices. Market Breadth has been weakening for 2-3 weeks now. Vix and Vix futures are less than 17 and has increased as the indices traded downwards. This could be the first sign that the market might be turning downwards but it has definitely be more volatile. The prognosis is for more selling pressure on the indices.

To YOUR wealth!

Would you like to learn to trade stocks, Options or Futures? Drop us an email at jefftohch@gmail.com or call +6010 4343 948. If you have been an unsuccessful trader and need personal tutorship, we can provide you with personal coaching to take you to be a profitable trader.



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