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12 April 2019 – China – USA trade deal nears


Indices (Weekly chart)
Dow Transportation closed at 10912.19 with a bullish marubozu candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Weekly trading range was 317.36. Intermediate Cycle is negative with rising slope. Short term cycle is positive with rising slope. Market direction:- Buy.     

Dow Industrial closed at 26412.30 with a bullish hammer candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Weekly trading range was 374.09. Intermediate Cycle is positive and rising slope. Short term cycle is positive and rising slope. Market direction:- Buy.   

Russell 2000 closed at 1584.8025 with a small bullish hammer candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Weekly trading range was 31.335. Intermediate Cycle is negative and rising. Short term cycle is positive and rising. Market direction:- Buy.      

Nasdaq 100 closed at 7628.1498 with a bullish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Weekly trading range was 94.09. Intermediate Cycle is positive and rising slope. Short term cycle is positive and rising slope. Market direction:- Buy.         

S&P 500 closed at 2907.41 with a bullish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Weekly trading range was 37.21. Intermediate Cycle is positive and rising slope. Short term cycle is positive and rising slope. Market direction:- Buy.

Metals and Commodities (Weekly charts)
WTI Crude oil futures (CL) closed at $63.76 per barrel with a small bullish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Weekly trading range was 1.66. Intermediate Cycle is negative and rising slope. Short term cycle is positive and rising slope. Market direction:- Buy.

Gold futures (GC) closed at 1293.5 with a bearish candle below its 8 EMA and above its 21 EMA , 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Weekly trading range was 21.8. Intermediate Cycle is positive and falling slope. Short term cycle is positive and falling slope. Market direction:- Sell.   

Bonds (Weekly charts)
Bond futures (/ZB) closed at 146’27 with a bearish marubozu candle below its 8 EMA, 200 SMA and above its 21 EMA, 50 SMA. Weekly trading range was 1.72. Intermediate Cycle is positive and rising slope. Short term cycle is positive and falling slope. Market direction:- Buy.         

High Yield bond ETF (HYG) closed at 86.96 with a bullish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Weekly trading range was 0.74. Intermediate Cycle is positive and rising slope. Short term cycle is positive and rising slope. Market direction:- Buy.         

Currencies (Weekly charts)
The dollar index ($DXY) closed at 96.850 with a bearish candle on its 8 EMA and above its 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Weekly trading range was 0.651. Intermediate Cycle is positive and falling slope. Short term cycle is positive and falling slope. Market direction:- Sell. It is in a Squeeze.

EUR/USD closed at 1.1296 with a bullish candle above its 8 EMA and below its 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Weekly trading range was 0.0113. Intermediate Cycle is negative and rising slope. Short term cycle is negative and rising slope. Market direction:- Buy.       

USD/JPY closed at 112.02 with a bullish candle below its 200 SMA and above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA. Weekly trading range was 1.248. Intermediate Cycle is negative and rising slope. Short term cycle is positive and rising slope. Market direction:- Buy.    

Relative Strength – Sectors
On a monthly lookback, the relative strength order of the ETFs that are outperforming the S&P 500 are XLF, XLY, XLB, XLK and XLI respectively.

On a 3-monthly lookback, the relative strength order of the ETFs that are outperforming the S&P 500 are XLK, XLI, XLY and XLB respectively.

Market Internals
Market Sentiment is rather bullish. Market Breadth is sloping upwards showing more gainers than losers. Volume Acc/Dis is sloping upwards showing accumulation. Skew is at 124.22. Vix is at 12.01 and Vix futures 12.85.

The Week Ahead
The week closed with rather bullish sentiment with news of impending trade agreement between China and USA. It is likely there will be a pullback on Monday and followed by further bullishness in the coming week. We could see further indices breakout in the coming days. The prognosis is to trade the bullish direction.

To YOUR wealth!

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