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7 May 2019 – Market pullback on trade war fears

Indices
Dow Transportation closed at 10670.47 with a bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and above its 50 SMA, 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 345.38. Intermediate Cycle is positive and falling slope. Short Term Cycle is positive and falling slope. Market direction – Sell.

Dow Industrial closed at 25965.09 with a big bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and above 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 648.77. Intermediate Cycle is positive and falling slope. Short Term Cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction – Sell. 

Russell 2000 closed at 1582.3116 with a big bearish candle below its 8 EMA and above its 21 EMA, 50 SMA, 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 43.49. Intermediate Cycle is positive and falling slope. Short Cycle is positive and falling slope. Market direction: Buy. 

Nasdaq 100 closed at 7640.1491 with a bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and above its 50 SMA, 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 221.48. Intermediate Cycle is positive and falling slope. Short Cycle is positive and falling slope. Market direction: Sell.

S&P 500 (SPX) closed at 2884.05 with a big bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and above its 50 SMA, 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 69.87. Intermediate Cycle is positive and falling slope. Short Cycle is positive and falling slope. Mrket direction: Sell.    

Metals and Commodities
WTI Crude oil futures (CL) closed at $61.44 per barrel with a bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and above its 50 SMA, 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 1.88. Intermediate Cycle is positive and falling slope. Short Cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction: Sell.

Gold futures (GC) closed at 1285.7 with a bullish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 200 SMA and below its 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 8.2. Intermediate Cycle is negative and rising slope. Short Cycle is negative and rising slope. Market direction: Buy.

Commodities (DBC) ETF closed at 15.72 with a bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.255. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling slope. Short Cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction: Sell.   

Bonds
Bond futures (/ZB) closed at 148’20 with a bullish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA, 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 1.094. Intermediate Cycle is positive and rising slope. Short Cycle is positive and rising slope. Market direction: Buy.

High Yield bond ETF (HYG) closed at 86.09 with a big bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and above its 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.66. Intermediate Cycle is positive and falling slope. Short Cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction: Sell. 

Currency
The dollar index ($DXY) closed at 97.554 with a doji candle below its 8 EMA and above its 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.362. Intermediate Cycle is positive and falling slope. Short Cycle is positive and falling slope. Market direction: Sell.    

EUR/USD closed at 1.1190 with a spinning top doji candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA, 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.005. Intermediate Cycle is negative and rising slope. Short Cycle is negative and rising slope. Market direction: Buy. It is in a weekly Squeeze.

USD/JPY closed at 110.23 with a big bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA, 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.683. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling slope. Short Cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction: Sell. 

Relative Strength – Sectors On a monthly lookback, the relative strength order of the ETFs that are outperforming the S&P 500 are XLV, XLF, XLP, XLK, XLU, XLE and XLI.

On a 3-monthly lookback, the relative strength order of the ETFs that are outperforming the S&P 500 are XLK, XLY and XLF respectively.  

Market Internals
Market Sentiment is bearish. Market Breadth is sloping downwards showing more losers to gainers. Volume Acc/Dis is sloping downwards and showing distribution. Skew is at 116.88. Vix is at 19.32 and Vix Futures is at 17.55.   

The Week Ahead 
Market Internals are showing weakness. The trade talks between China and the USA looks to be unravelling. Skew is normal. Vix and Vix futures have gone up and are now below 20 and 18 respectively. Market Sentiment is bearish. The prognosis is for increase in volatility and continuing selling pressure.

To YOUR wealth!
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