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9 May 2019 – On the eve of Trade War

Indices
Dow Transportation closed at 10627.37 with a hammer candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and above its 50 SMA, 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 160.7. Intermediate Cycle is positive and falling slope. Short Term Cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction – Sell.

Dow Industrial closed at 25828.36 with a hammer candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and above 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 449.94. Intermediate Cycle is positive and falling slope. Short Term Cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction – Sell. 

Russell 2000 closed at 1570.0567 with a hammer candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and above its 50 SMA, 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 28.125. Intermediate Cycle is positive and falling slope. Short Cycle is positive and falling slope. Market direction: Sell. 

Nasdaq 100 closed at 7582.7464 with a bullish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and above its 50 SMA, 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 144.84. Intermediate Cycle is positive and falling slope. Short Cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction: Sell.

S&P 500 (SPX) closed at 2870.72 with a hammer candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and above its 50 SMA, 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 43.02. Intermediate Cycle is positive and falling slope. Short Cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction: Sell.    

Metals and Commodities
WTI Crude oil futures (CL) closed at $61.6 per barrel with a bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and above its 50 SMA, 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 1.3. Intermediate Cycle is positive and falling slope. Short Cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction: Sell.

Gold futures (GC) closed at 1284.8 with a bullish candle above its 8 EMA, 200 SMA and below its 21 EMA, 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 8.8. Intermediate Cycle is negative and rising slope. Short Cycle is negative and rising slope. Market direction: Buy.

Commodities (DBC) ETF closed at 15.66 with a bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.14. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling slope. Short Cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction: Sell.   

Bonds
Bond futures (/ZB) closed at 148’28 with a bullish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA, 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.969. Intermediate Cycle is positive and rising slope. Short Cycle is positive and rising slope. Market direction: Buy.

High Yield bond ETF (HYG) closed at 85.99 with a doji candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and above its 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.44. Intermediate Cycle is positive and falling slope. Short Cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction: Sell. 

Currency
The dollar index ($DXY) closed at 97.417 with a bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and above its 50 SMA, 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.462. Intermediate Cycle is positive and falling slope. Short Cycle is positive and falling slope. Market direction: Sell.    

EUR/USD closed at 1.1212 with a bullish candle above its 8 EMA and on its 21 EMA and below its 50 SMA, 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.0077. Intermediate Cycle is negative and rising slope. Short Cycle is negative and rising slope. Market direction: Buy. It is in a weekly Squeeze.

USD/JPY closed at 109.70 with a bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA, 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.634. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling slope. Short Cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction: Sell. 

Relative Strength – Sectors On a monthly lookback, the relative strength order of the ETFs that are outperforming the S&P 500 are XLV, XLF, XLK, XLP, XLI and XLE.

On a 3-monthly lookback, the relative strength order of the ETFs that are outperforming the S&P 500 are XLK, XLY and XLF respectively.  

Market Internals
Market Sentiment is bearish. Market Breadth is sloping downwards showing more losers to gainers. Volume Acc/Dis is sloping downwards and showing distribution. Skew is at 117.68. Vix is at 19.10 and Vix Futures is at 17.65.   

The Week Ahead 
Market Internals continue to show weakness. The market reacted to the continuing trade war and pulled back. Skew is normal. Vix and Vix futures have gone up and are now below 20 and 18 respectively. Market Sentiment is bearish. The prognosis is for increase in volatility and continuing selling pressure.

To YOUR wealth!
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