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7 June 2019 – Weekly Review – Market Sentiment turns up


Indices (Weekly chart)
Dow Transportation closed at 10140.64 with a bullish engulfing candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and above its 200 SMA. Weekly trading range was 503.99. Long Cycle is negative with falling slope. Intermediate Cycle is positive with falling slope. Short term cycle is negative with rising slope. Market direction:- Sell.     

Dow Industrial closed at 26029 with a big bullish engulfing candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Weekly trading range was 1475. Long Cycle is positive and rising slope. Intermediate Cycle is positive and falling slope. Short term cycle is negative and rising slope. Market direction:- Buy.   

Russell 2000 closed at 1514.5 with a bullish engulfing candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and above its 200 SMA. Weekly trading range was 58.43. Long Cycle is negative and falling slope. Intermediate Cycle is positive and falling slope. Short term cycle is negative and rising slope. Market direction:- Sell.      

Nasdaq 100 closed at 7429.25 with a bullish engulfing candle on its 8 EMA and above its 21 EMA, 50 SMA, 200 SMA. Weekly trading range was 511.75. Long Cycle is positive and falling slope. Intermediate Cycle is positive and falling slope. Short term cycle is negative and rising slope. Market direction:- Buy.       

S&P 500 closed at 2877.50 with a big bullish engulfing candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Weekly trading range was 157.5. Intermediate Cycle is positive and falling slope. Short term cycle is negative and rising slope. Market direction:- Buy.

Metals and Commodities (Weekly charts)
WTI Crude oil futures (CL) closed at $54.04 per barrel with a hammer candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and above its 200 SMA. Weekly trading range was 4.03. Long Cycle is negative and falling slope. Intermediate Cycle is positive and falling slope. Short term cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction:- Sell.

Gold futures (GC) closed at 1344.9 with a big bullish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Weekly trading range was 42.5. Intermediate Cycle is positive and rising slope. Short term cycle is positive and rising slope. Market direction:- Buy. It is in a weekly Squeeze.   

Bonds (Weekly charts)
Bond futures (/ZB) closed at 154’17 with a bullish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Weekly trading range was 1.948. Long Cycle is positive and rising. Intermediate Cycle is positive and rising slope. Short term cycle is positive and rising slope. Market direction:- Buy. There is a take profit signal.         

High Yield bond ETF (HYG) closed at 86.10 with a big bullish engulfing candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Weekly trading range was 1.738. Long Cycle is positive and rising. Intermediate Cycle is positive and falling slope. Short term cycle is negative and rising slope. Market direction:- Buy.         

Currencies (Weekly charts)
The dollar index ($DXY) closed at 96.563 with a big bearish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and below its 50 SMA, 200 SMA. Weekly trading range was 1.343. Long Cycle is positive and falling. Intermediate Cycle is positive and falling. Short term cycle is negative and falling. Market direction:- Sell.

EUR/USD closed at 1.1335 with a big bullish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and below its 50 SMA, 200 SMA. Weekly trading range was 0.0188. Long Cycle is negative and rising slope. Intermediate Cycle is negative and rising slope. Short term cycle is positive and rising slope. Market direction:- Buy. It is in a weekly Squeeze.       

USD/JPY closed at 108.16 with a doji candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Weekly trading range was 0.801. Long Cycle is negative and falling slope. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling slope. Short term cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction:- Sell.    

Relative Strength – Sectors
On a monthly lookback, the relative strength order of the ETFs that are outperforming the S&P 500 are XLB, XLK, XLU, XLY and XLP respectively.

On a 3-monthly lookback, the relative strength order of the ETFs that are outperforming the S&P 500 are XLB, XLP, XLK, XLF, XLV, XLY and XLU respectively.

Market Internals
Market Sentiment is bullish. Market Breadth is sloping upwards showing more gainers than losers. Volume Acc/Dis is sloping upwards showing accumulation. Skew is at 114.67. Vix is at 16.30 and Vix futures 16.80.

The Week Ahead
Market Sentiment changed when there was a whiff of a deal between the US and Mexico. The indices traded upwards. Skew is normal. Vix and Vix futures are below 17 which is trending down. The FED is now expected to lower interest rates and the market is going up in anticipation of that. The prognosis is for indices to trend upwards.

To YOUR wealth!

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