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9 August 2019 – Weekly Review – Trade War deteriorates


Indices (Weekly chart)
Dow Transportation closed at 10207.21 with a bearish ‘hammer’ candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and above its 200 SMA. Weekly trading range – 414.59. Fractal Chaos Band – Within its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – positive and falling. Medium Cycle Wave – negative and falling. Short Cycle Wave – positive and falling. Market direction – Strong DownTrend. Momentum – Weak Downward. RSI – 45.9.    

Dow Industrial closed at 26287.44 with a big high closing doji candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and above its 50 SMA, 200 SMA. Weekly trading range – 1044.62. Fractal Chaos Band – Within its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – positive and falling. Medium Cycle Wave – positive and falling. Short cycle Wave – positive and falling. Market direction – Weak DownTrend. Momentum – Strong Downward. It is in a monthly Squeeze. RSI – 51.3.

Russell 2000 closed at 1513.0426 with a big bearish hammer candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and above its 200 SMA. Weekly trading range – 60.996. Fractal Chaos Band – Within its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – positive and falling slope. Medium Cycle Wave – negative and falling slope. Short Cycle Wave – negative and falling slope. Market direction – Strong DownTrend. Momentum – Strong Downward. RSI – 45.7.       

Nasdaq 100 closed at 7646.2678 with a bullish candle below its 8 EMA and above its 21 EMA, 50 SMA, 200 SMA. Weekly trading range – 370.192. Fractal Chaos Band – Within its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – positive and falling. Medium Cycle Wave – positive and falling. Short cycle – positive and falling. Market direction – Weak UpTrend. Momentum – Weak Upward. RSI – 53.4.       

S&P 500 closed at 2918.65 with a bullish candle below its 8 EMA and above its 21 EMA, 50 SMA, 200 SMA. Weekly trading range – 116.6. Fractal Chaos Band – Within its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – positive and rising. Medium Cycle Wave – positive and falling. Short cycle Wave – positive and falling. Market direction – Weak UpTrend. Momentum – Weak Upward. RSI – 53.2.

Metals and Commodities (Weekly charts)
WTI Crude oil futures (CL) closed at $54.27 per barrel with a big bearish ‘hammer’ candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and above its 200 SMA. Weekly trading range was 5.09. Fractal Chaos Band – Within its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – negative and falling. Medium Cycle Wave – negative and falling. Short cycle – negative and falling. Market direction:- Weak DownTrend. Momentum – Strong Downward. RSI – 42.9.

Gold futures (GC) closed at 1508.0 with a big bullish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Weekly trading range was 73.9. Fractal Chaos Band – Above its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – positive and rising. Medium Cycle Wave – positive and rising. Short cycle – positive and rising. Market direction:- Strong UpTrend. Momentum – Strong Upward. RSI – 82.2.

Bonds (Weekly charts)
Bond futures (/ZB) closed at 161’02 with a bullish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Weekly trading range was 5.4375. Fractal Chaos Band – Closed above its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – positive and rising. Medium Cycle Wave – positive and rising. Short cycle – positive and rising. Market direction:- Strong UpTrend. Momentum – Strong Upward. RSI – 77.5.         

High Yield bond ETF (HYG) closed at 86.25 with a bullish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and above its 50 SMA, 200 SMA. Weekly trading range – 1.065. Fractal Chaos Band – Within its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – positive and falling. Medium Cycle Wave – positive and falling. Short cycle – negative and falling. Market direction:- Weak DownTrend. Momentum – Strong Downward. RSI – 51.

Currencies (Weekly charts)
The dollar index ($DXY) closed at 97.034 with a bearish marubozu candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and above its 50 SMA, 200 SMA. Weekly trading range – 1.102. Fractal Chaos Band – Closed within its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – positive and falling. Medium Cycle Wave – positive and falling. Short cycle – positive and falling. Market direction:- Weak UpTrend. Momentum – Strong Upward. RSI – 50.3.

EUR/USD closed at 1.1201 with a bullish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Weekly trading range – 0.0146. Fractal Chaos Band – Closed within its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – negative and falling. Medium Cycle Wave – negative and rising. Short cycle – negative and rising. Market direction:- Strong DownTrend. Momentum – Strong Downward. RSI – 46.5.   

USD/JPY closed at 105.74 with a big bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Weekly trading range – 1.817. Fractal Chaos Band – Below its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – negative and falling. Medium Cycle Wave – negative and falling. Short cycle – negative and falling. Market direction:- Strong DownTrend. Momentum – Strong Downward. RSI – 32.7.

Relative Strength – Sectors
On a 3-monthly lookback, the relative strength order of the ETFs are XLU, XLU, XLB, XLP, XLK, /ES, SPY, SPX, XLF, XLY, XLV, XLI and XLE respectively.

On a 12-monthly lookback, the relative strength order of the ETFs are XLU, XLP, /ES, SPY, SPX, XLK, XLY, XLF, XLF, XLV and XLE respectively.

Market Internals
Market Sentiment is bullish. Market Breadth is sloping downwards showing more losers than gainers. Volume Acc/Dis is sloping upwards showing accumulation. Skew is at 116.34. Vix is at 17.97 and Vix futures 18.48.

The Week Ahead
Market Sentiment is bullish. Market Internals are showing mixed signals. Vix and Vix futures are still elevated. Skew is normal. The trade war between USA – China is looking more and more difficult to resolve. The prognosis for the coming week is that of a volatile market coming under selling pressure.

To YOUR wealth!

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