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6 September 2019 – Weekly Review – Bond pullback, market in transition?


Indices (Weekly chart)
Dow Transportation closed at 10302.92 with a bullish candle above its 8 EMA, 200 SMA and below its 21 EMA, 50 SMA. Weekly trading range – 516.6. Fractal Chaos Band – Closed within its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – negative and rising. Medium Cycle Wave – negative and rising. Short Cycle Wave – negative and rising. Market direction – Weak DownTrend. Momentum – Strong Downward. RSI – 49.6.    

Dow Industrial closed at 26,797.46 with a bullish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Weekly trading range – 882.65. Fractal Chaos Band – Within its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – positive and rising. Medium Cycle Wave – positive and rising. Short cycle Wave – positive and rising. Market direction – Weak UpTrend. Momentum – Strong Downward. It is in a monthly Squeeze. RSI – 56.1.

Russell 2000 closed at 1505.1679 with a small bullish candle above its 200 SMA and below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA. Weekly trading range – 54.32. Fractal Chaos Band -Within its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – negative and rising slope. Medium Cycle Wave – negative and rising slope. Short Cycle Wave – negative and rising slope. Market direction – Strong DownTrend. Momentum – Strong Downward. RSI – 46.5.       

Nasdaq 100 closed at 7852.5386 with a bullish marubozu candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Weekly trading range – 295.151. Fractal Chaos Band – Within its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – positive and rising. Medium Cycle Wave – positive and rising. Short cycle – positive and rising. Market direction – Weak UpTrend. Momentum – Neutral. RSI – 54.2.     

S&P 500 closed at 2978.71 with a big bullish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Weekly trading range – 94.01. Fractal Chaos Band – Within its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – positive and rising. Medium Cycle Wave – positive and rising. Short cycle Wave – positive and rising. Market direction – Weak UpTrend. Momentum – Neutral. RSI – 57.4.

Metals and Commodities (Weekly charts)
WTI Crude oil futures (CL) closed at $56.73 per barrel with a bullish candle above its 8 EMA, 200 SMA and below its 21 EMA, 50 SMA. Weekly trading range was 4.92. Fractal Chaos Band – Within its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – negative and rising. Medium Cycle Wave – negative and rising. Short cycle – positive and rising. Market direction:- Weak UpTrend. Momentum – Strong Upward. RSI – 49.2.

Gold futures (GC) closed at 1515 with a bearish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Weekly trading range was 55.5. Fractal Chaos Band – Above its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – positive and rising. Medium Cycle Wave – positive and falling. Short cycle – positive and rising. Market direction:- Strong UpTrend. Momentum – Strong Upward. RSI – 76.5. Gold is extremely overbought on the weekly chart!

Bonds (Weekly charts)
Bond futures (/ZB) closed at 164’12 with a bearish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Weekly trading range was 3.5312. Fractal Chaos Band – Closed above its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – positive and rising. Medium Cycle Wave – positive and rising. Short cycle – positive and rising. Market direction:- Strong UpTrend. Momentum – Strong Upward. RSI – 77.3.         

High Yield bond ETF (HYG) closed at 87.14 with a bullish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Weekly trading range – 0.91. Fractal Chaos Band – Within its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – positive and rising. Medium Cycle Wave – positive and rising. Short cycle – positive and rising. Market direction:- Strong UpTrend. Momentum – Strong Upward. RSI – 57.9.

Currencies (Weekly charts)
The dollar index ($DXY) closed at 98.012 with a big bearish marubozu candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Weekly trading range – 1.76. Fractal Chaos Band – Closed within its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – positive and rising. Medium Cycle Wave – positive and rising. Short cycle – positive and falling. Market direction:- Strong UpTrend. Momentum – Strong Upward. RSI – 53.9.

EUR/USD closed at 1.1025 with a spinning top doji candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Weekly trading range – 0.0158. Fractal Chaos Band – Closed below its FCB lowerband. Long Cycle Wave – negative and falling. Medium Cycle Wave – negative and falling. Short cycle – negative and falling. Market direction:- Strong DownTrend. Momentum – Strong Downward. RSI – 40.7.   

USD/JPY closed at 106.91 with a bullish candle above its 8 EMA and below its 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Weekly trading range – 1.4909. Fractal Chaos Band – Crossed above its FCB lowerband. Long Cycle Wave – negative and falling. Medium Cycle Wave – negative and rising. Short cycle – negative and rising. Market direction:- Weak DownTrend. Momentum – Weak Downward. RSI – 42.9.

Relative Strength – Sectors
On a 3-monthly lookback, the relative strength order of the ETFs are XLP, XLY, XLK, /ES, SPY, XLU, SPX, XLI, XLF, XLB, XLV and XLE respectively.

On a 12-monthly lookback, the relative strength order of the ETFs are XLP, XLK, XLY, SPY, /ES, SPX, XLU, XLI, XLF, XLB, XLV and XLE respectively.

Market Internals
Market Sentiment is bullish. Market Breadth is sloping upwards showing more gainers than losers. Volume Acc/Dis is sloping upwards showing accumulation. Skew is at 118.87. Vix is at 15.00 and Vix futures 16.46.

The Week Ahead
Market Sentiment and Market Internals are showing strength. Vix and Vix futures have come down and are below 17. Skew is normal. The trade war between USA – China has calmed down and the market has risen on hope. The prognosis is for continued volatility but with buying pressure.

To YOUR wealth!

Would you like to learn to trade stocks, Options or Futures? Drop us an email at jefftohch@gmail.com or call +6010 4343 948. If you have been an unsuccessful trader and need personal tutorship, we can provide you with personal coaching to take you to be a profitable trader.


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