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1 October 2019 – PMI disappoints, Indices sell off, bond rallies

Indices
Dow Transportation closed at 10119.60 with a big bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Daily trading range is 402.21. Fractal Chaos Band – Crossed below its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – positive and falling. Medium Cycle Wave – negative and falling. Short Cycle Wave – negative and falling. Market direction – Strong DownTrend. Momentum – Strong Downward. RSI – 40.4.

Dow Industrial closed at 26573.04 with a big bearish candle above its 50 SMA, 200 SMA and below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA. Daily trading range – 483.99. Fractal Chaos Band – crossed below its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – positive and falling. Medium Cycle Wave – negative and falling. Short Cycle Wave – negative and falling. Market direction – Strong DownTrend. Momentum – Strong Downward. RSI – 45.2.

Russell 2000 closed at 1493.4316 with a big bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Daily trading range – 47.535. Fractal Chaos Band – below its FCB lowerband. Long Cycle Wave – positive and falling. Medium Cycle Wave – negative and falling. Short Cycle Wave – negative and falling. Market direction – Strong DownTrend. Momentum – Strong Downward. RSI – 39.3.

Nasdaq 100 closed at 7684.1422 with a bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and above its 200 SMA. Daily trading range – 146.306. Fractal Chaos Band – within its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – positive and falling. Medium Cycle Wave – negative and falling. Short Cycle Wave – negative and falling. Market direction – Weak DownTrend. Momentum – Strong Downward. RSI – 44.7.

S&P 500 (SPX) closed at 2940.25 with a big bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and above its 200 SMA. Daily trading range – 53.83. Fractal Chaos Band – Below its FCB lowerband. Long Cycle Wave – positive and falling. Medium Cycle Wave – negative and falling. Short Cycle Wave – negative and falling. Market direction – Strong DownTrend. Momentum – Strong Downward. RSI – 44.

Metals and Commodities
WTI Crude oil futures (CL) closed at $53.98 per barrel with a spinning top doji candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA, 200 SMA. Daily trading range – 1.79. Fractal Chaos Band – below its FCB Lowerband. Long Cycle Wave – negative and falling. Medium Cycle Wave – negative and falling. Short Cycle Wave – negative and falling. Market direction – Strong DownTrend. Momentum – Strong Downward. RSI – 41.5.

Gold (/GC) closed at 1485.2 with a bullish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and above its 200 SMA. Daily trading range – 28.5. Fractal Chaos Band – below its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – negative and falling. Medium Cycle Wave – negative and falling. Short Cycle Wave – negative and falling. Market direction – Strong DownTrend. Momentum – Strong Downward. RSI – 42.2.

Commodities (DBC) ETF closed at 15.03 with a bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Daily trading range – 0.1199. Fractal Chaos Band – below its FCB lowerband. Long Cycle Wave – positive and falling. Medium Cycle Wave – negative and falling. Short Cycle Wave – negative and falling. Market direction – Strong DownTrend. Momentum – Strong Downward. RSI – 43.4.

Bonds
Bond futures (/ZB) closed at 162’26 with a high closing spinning top doji candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA, 200 SMA. Daily trading range – 2.75. Fractal Chaos Band – Within its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – positive and rising. Medium Cycle Wave – positive and rising. Short Cycle Wave – positive and rising. Market direction – Weak DownTrend. Momentum – Strong Upward. RSI – 53.5.

High Yield bond ETF (HYG) gapped down and closed at 86.62 with a bearish marubozu candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and above its 200 SMA. Daily trading range – 0.62. Fractal Chaos Band – crossed below its FCB lowerband. Long Cycle Wave – positive and falling. Medium Cycle Wave – negative and falling. Short Cycle Wave – negative and falling. Market direction – Strong DownTrend. Momentum – Strong Downward. RSI – 39.6.

Currency
The dollar index ($DXY) closed at 99.172 with a bearish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA, 200 SMA. Daily trading range – 0.593. Fractal Chaos Band – above its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – positive and rising. Medium Cycle Wave – positive and falling. Short Cycle Wave – positive and falling. Market direction – Strong UpTrend. Momentum – Strong Upward. RSI – 57.9.


EUR/USD closed at 1.0930 with a bullish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Daily trading range – 0.0063. Fractal Chaos Band – below its FCB lowerband. Long Cycle Wave – negative and falling. Medium Cycle Wave – negative and rising. Short Cycle Wave – negative and rising. Market direction – Strong DownTrend. Momentum – Strong Downward. RSI – 40.4.

USD/JPY closed at 107.73 with a bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 200 SMA and above its 21 EMA, 50 SMA. Daily trading range – 0.844. Fractal Chaos Band – within its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – positive and rising. Medium Cycle Wave – positive and falling. Short Cycle Wave – positive and falling. Market direction – Weak UpTrend. Momentum – Weak Upward. RSI – 53.8.

Relative Strength – Sectors On a 3-monthly lookback, the relative strength order of the S&P 500 ETFs are XLU, XLP, /ES, XLK, SPX, XLY, SPY, XLF, XLI, XLB, XLE and XLV.

On a 12-monthly lookback, the relative strength order of the S&P 500 ETFs are XLU, XLP, XLK, /ES, SPX, SPY, XLY, XLF, XLI, XLB, XLV and XLE.  

Market Internals
Market Sentiment – Slightly Bearish. Market Breadth – sloping downward showing more losers than gainers. Volume Acc/Dis – sloping downwards and showing distribution. Skew – 114.01. Vix – 18.56 and Vix Futures – 18.10.   

The Week Ahead 
With the latest figure on the PMI, the market reversed its initial direction. Bond futures shot up and the indices went off the cliff. Market internals continue to point to weakness. Skew is normal. Vix has increased to below 19 and Vix future has increased to below 19 as well. The prognosis is for continued volatility. Indices are in a down trend and bond futures is on an uptrend.

To Your Wealth!
Would you like to learn to trade stocks, Options or Futures? Drop us an email at jefftohch@gmail.com or call +6010 4343 948. If you have been an unsuccessful trader and need personal tutorship, we can provide you with personal coaching to take you to be a profitable trader.


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