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31 October 2019 – Bond surges, Chicago PMI disappoints

Indices
Dow Transportation gapped down and closed at 10498.86 with a bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and above its 50 SMA, 200 SMA. Daily trading range is 213.41. Fractal Chaos Band – closed within its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – positive and falling. Medium Cycle Wave – positive and falling. Short Cycle Wave – negative and falling. Market direction – Neutral. Momentum – Strong Downward. RSI – 50.3.

Dow Industrial closed at 27046.23 with a bearish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA, 200 SMA. Daily trading range – 270.08. Fractal Chaos Band – crossed below its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – positive and rising. Medium Cycle Wave – positive and rising. Short Cycle Wave – positive and rising. Market direction – Strong UpTrend. Momentum – Strong Upward. RSI – 56.1.

Russell 2000 closed at 1562.4517 with a bearish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA, 200 SMA. Daily trading range – 19.974. Fractal Chaos Band – within its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – positive and rising. Medium Cycle Wave – positive and falling. Short Cycle Wave – positive and rising. Market direction – Strong UpTrend. Momentum – Strong Upward. RSI – 59.

Nasdaq 100 closed at 8083.8324 with a small hammer candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA, 200 SMA. Daily trading range – 68.78. Fractal Chaos Band – closed within its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – positive and rising. Medium Cycle Wave – positive and rising. Short Cycle Wave – positive and rising. Market direction – Strong UpTrend. Momentum – Strong Upward. RSI – 62.2.

S&P 500 (SPX) closed at 3037.56 with a bearish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Daily trading range – 23.71. Fractal Chaos Band – closed above its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – positive and rising. Medium Cycle Wave – positive and rising. Short Cycle Wave – positive and rising. Market direction – Strong UpTrend. Momentum – Strong Upward. RSI – 61.5.

Metals and Commodities
WTI Crude oil futures (CL) closed at $54.14 per barrel with a bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Daily trading range – 1.88. Fractal Chaos Band – within its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – negative and falling. Medium Cycle Wave – positive and falling. Short Cycle Wave – negative and falling. Market direction – Strong DownTrend. Momentum – Weak Downward. RSI – 46.

Gold (/GC) closed at 1415.4 with a bullish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Daily trading range – 20.7. Fractal Chaos Band – closed within its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – negative and rising. Medium Cycle Wave – positive and rising. Short Cycle Wave – negative and rising. Market direction – Strong UpTrend. Momentum – Strong Upward. RSI – 56.4.

Commodities (DBC) ETF closed at 15.33 with a bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 200 SMA and above its 21 EMA, 50 SMA. Daily trading range – 0.16. Fractal Chaos Band – closed within its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – positive and falling. Medium Cycle Wave – positive and falling. Short Cycle Wave – positive and falling. Market direction – Neutral. Momentum – Weak Downward. RSI – 51.6.

Bonds
Bond futures (/ZB) closed at 161’10 with a bullish marubozu candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 200 SMA and below its 50 SMA. Daily trading range – 2. Fractal Chaos Band – broke above its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – negative and rising. Medium Cycle Wave – negative and rising. Short Cycle Wave – positive and rising. Market direction – Strong UpTrend. Momentum – Strong Upward. RSI – 53.

High Yield bond ETF (HYG) closed at 86.81 with a bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and above its 200 SMA. Daily trading range – 0.32. Fractal Chaos Band – closed within its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – positive and falling. Medium Cycle Wave – positive and falling. Short Cycle Wave – negative and falling. Market direction – Strong DownTrend. Momentum – Strong Downward. RSI – 44.7.

Currency
The dollar index ($DXY) closed at 97.45 with a bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and above its 200 SMA. Daily trading range – 0.557 Fractal Chaos Band – within its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – negative and falling. Medium Cycle Wave – negative and rising. Short Cycle Wave – positive and falling. Market direction – Strong DownTrend. Momentum – Neutral. RSI – 37.3.


EUR/USD closed at 1.1150 with a doji candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and below its 200 SMA. Daily trading range – 0.0044. Fractal Chaos Band – within its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – positive and rising. Medium Cycle Wave – positive and rising. Short Cycle Wave – positive and rising. Market direction – Strong UpTrend. Momentum – Strong Upward. RSI – 62.7.

USD/JPY closed at 108.01 with a big bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 200 SMA and above its 50 SMA. Daily trading range – 0.969. Fractal Chaos Band – closed below its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – positive and falling. Medium Cycle Wave – positive and falling. Short Cycle Wave – negative and falling. Market direction – Weak DownTrend. Momentum – Strong Downward. RSI – 47.2.

Relative Strength – Sectors On a 3-monthly lookback, the relative strength order of the S&P ETF 500 sectors are XLV, XLK, SPY, SPX, /ES, XLF, XLI, XLU, XLB, XLP, XLY and XLE.

On a 12-monthly lookback, the relative strength order of the S&P 500 ETFs are XLV, XLK, SPY, SPX, /ES, XLU, XLP, XLF, XLI, XLB, XLY and XLE.  

Market Internals
Market Sentiment – Bullish. Market Breadth – sloping downward showing more losers than gainers. Volume Acc/Dis – sloping downwards and showing distribution. Skew – 130.71. Vix – 13.22 and Vix Futures – 15.28.   

The Week Ahead 
The Chicago PMI reported a contraction which spook the market. 30-year Treasury Bond futures surged. Indices pulled back slightly. Market internals are showing weakness. Skew is normal. Vix is below 14 and Vix Futures is below 16. The prognosis is for a bearish bias for the indices futures and a bullish bias for the bond futures.

To Your Wealth!
Would you like to learn to trade stocks, Options or Futures? Drop us an email at jefftohch@gmail.com or call +6010 4343 948. If you have been an unsuccessful trader and need personal tutorship, we can provide you with personal coaching to take you to be a profitable trader.


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