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Z5 Tues, 30 April 2024

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Z5 Mon, 29 April 2024

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3 January 2020 – Weekly Review – War with Iran, Gold and bond surges


Indices (Weekly chart)
Dow Transportation ($DJT) closed at 10911.40 with a doji candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Weekly trading range – 200.85. Fractal Chaos Band – closed within its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – positive and rising. Medium Cycle Wave – positive and rising. Short Cycle Wave – positive and rising. Market direction – Strong UpTrend. Momentum – Strong Upward. RSI – 56. The index is in its monthly Squeeze.    

Dow Industrial ($DJI) closed at 28634.88 with a doji candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Weekly trading range – 496.31. Fractal Chaos Band – closed above its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – positive and rising. Medium Cycle Wave – positive and rising. Short cycle Wave – positive and rising. Market direction – Strong UpTrend. Momentum – Strong Upward. It is in a monthly Squeeze. RSI – 69.8.

Russell 2000 closed at 1660.8695 with a bearish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Weekly trading range – 29.596. Fractal Chaos Band – closed above its FCB upperband. Long Cycle Wave – positive and rising slope. Medium Cycle Wave – positive and rising slope. Short Cycle Wave – positive and rising slope. Market direction – Strong UpTrend. Momentum – Strong Upward. RSI – 64.1.       

Nasdaq 100 closed at 8793.9039 with a bullish doji candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Weekly trading range – 201.71. Fractal Chaos Band – Above its FCB upper and lower band. Long Cycle Wave – positive and rising. Medium Cycle Wave – positive and rising. Short cycle – positive and rising. Market direction – Strong UpTrend. Momentum – Strong Upward. RSI – 75.6.

S&P 500 closed at 3234.85 with a doji candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Weekly trading range – 46.11. Fractal Chaos Band – Above its FCB Upperband. Long Cycle Wave – positive and rising. Medium Cycle Wave – positive and rising. Short cycle Wave – positive and rising. Market direction – Strong UpTrend. Momentum – Strong Upward. RSI – 73.6.

Metals and Commodities (Weekly charts)
WTI Crude oil futures (CL) closed at $63.04 per barrel with a bullish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Weekly trading range was 3.46. Fractal Chaos Band – Within its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – positive and rising slope. Medium Cycle Wave – positive and rising slope. Short cycle – positive and rising slope. Market direction:- Strong UpTrend. Momentum – Strong Upwards. RSI – 62.4.

Gold futures (GC) closed at 1555.2 with a bullish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Weekly trading range was 43.1. Fractal Chaos Band – closed above its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – positive and rising slope. Medium Cycle Wave – positive and rising slope. Short cycle – positive and rising slope. Market direction:- Strong UpTrend. Momentum – Strong Upward. RSI – 69.

Bonds (Weekly charts)
Bond futures (/ZB) closed at 158’10 with a bullish candle on its 21 EMA and above its 8 EMA, 50 SMA, 200 SMA. Weekly trading range was 3.1875. Fractal Chaos Band – Closed within its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – positive and falling. Medium Cycle Wave – negative and flat. Short cycle – negative and rising. Market direction:- Weak UpTrend. Momentum – Weak Downward. RSI – 51.2.         

High Yield bond ETF (HYG) closed at 88.22 with a bullish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Weekly trading range – 0.55. Fractal Chaos Band – closed above its FCB Upperband. Long Cycle Wave – positive and rising slope. Medium Cycle Wave – positive and rising slope. Short cycle – positive and rising slope. Market direction:- Strong UpTrend. Momentum – Strong Upward. RSI – 64.9.

Currencies (Weekly charts)
The dollar index ($DXY) closed at 96.896 with a doji candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and above its 200 SMA. Weekly trading range – 0.75. Fractal Chaos Band – Closed within its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – positive and falling slope. Medium Cycle Wave – negative and falling slope. Short cycle – negative and falling slope. Market direction:- Strong DownTrend. Momentum – Strong Downward. RSI – 45.2.

EUR/USD closed at 1.1164 with a bearish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and below its 50 SMA, 200 SMA. Weekly trading range – 0.0114. Fractal Chaos Band – Closed within its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – negative and rising slope. Medium Cycle Wave – positive and rising slope. Short cycle – positive and rising slope. Market direction:- Strong UpTrend. Momentum – Strong Upward. RSI – 52.   

USD/JPY closed at 108.06 with a big bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Weekly trading range – 1.634. Fractal Chaos Band – closed within its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – negative and falling slope. Medium Cycle Wave – positive and falling slope. Short cycle – negative and falling slope. Market direction:- Strong DownTrend. Momentum – Weak Downward. RSI – 46.6.

Relative Strength – Sectors
On a 3-monthly lookback, the relative strength order of the ETFs are XLI, XLK, SPX, SPY, /ES, XLF, XLY, XLV, XLU, XLP, XLE and XLB respectively.

On a 12-monthly lookback, the relative strength order of the ETFs are XLI, SPX, XLK, SPY, /ES, XLF, XLY, XLV, XLP, XLU, XLB and XLE respectively.

Market Internals
Market Sentiment is extremely bullish. Market Breadth is sloping upwards showing more gainers than losers. Volume Acc/Dis is sloping downwards showing distribution. Skew is at 140.29. Vix is at 13.43 and Vix futures 15.11.

The Week Ahead
Market Sentiment is extremely bullish. Skew is normal. Market internals have weakened. There is some distribution but gainers still outpaced losers. Vix is below 14 and Vix futures are below 16 and has increased. The potential for war breaking out between the US and Iran and destabilisation of the Middle-East has increased. A market black swan event has increased. The prognosis is for more selling pressure although there are still plenty of buying interests.

To Your Wealth!
Would you like to learn to trade stocks, Options or Futures? Drop us an email at jefftohch@gmail.com or call +6010 4343 948. If you have been an unsuccessful trader and need personal tutorship, we can provide you with personal coaching to take you to be a profitable trader.


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