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13 March 2020 – Weekly Review – A Market Massacre


Indices (Weekly chart)
Dow Transportation ($DJT) closed at 7939.40 with a big bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Weekly trading range – 1702.96. Fractal Chaos Band – closed below its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – negative and falling. Medium Cycle Wave – negative and falling. Short Cycle Wave – negative and falling. Market direction – Strong DownTrend. Momentum – Strong Downward. RSI22.9. It closed at 31.6% below its all-time high. It is in Bear Market Territory.

Dow Industrial ($DJI) closed at 23185.62 with a big bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Weekly trading range – 4710.32. Fractal Chaos Band – closed below its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – negative and falling. Medium Cycle Wave – negative and falling. Short cycle Wave – negative and falling. Market direction – Strong DownTrend. Momentum – Strong Downward. RSI27.6. It closed at 23.2% below its all-time high. It is in Bear Market Territory.

Russell 2000 closed at 1210.1348 with a big bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Weekly trading range – 339.835. Fractal Chaos Band – closed below its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – negative and falling slope. Medium Cycle Wave – negative and falling slope. Short Cycle Wave – negative and falling slope. Market direction – Strong DownTrend. Momentum – Strong Downward. RSI22.9. It closed at 30.5% below its all-time high. It is now in a bear market.       

Nasdaq 100 gapped down and closed at 7995.2628 with a big spinning top doji candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and above its 200 SMA. Weekly trading range – 1274.72. Fractal Chaos Band – Below its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – positive and falling. Medium Cycle Wave – positive and falling. Short cycle – negative and falling. Market direction – Strong DownTrend. Momentum – Strong Downward. RSI – 40.6. The Nasdaq closed 20% below its all-time high which is just on the threshold of a Bear Market Threshold.

S&P 500 (SPX) closed at 2911.02 with a reverse kicker bullish marubozu candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Weekly trading range – 230.69. Fractal Chaos Band – Below its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – positive and falling. Medium Cycle Wave – negative and falling. Short cycle Wave – negative and falling. Market direction – Strong DownTrend. Momentum – Strong Downward. RSI – 30.3.

Metals and Commodities (Weekly charts)
WTI Crude oil futures (CL) gapped down and closed at $32.93 per barrel with a doji candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Weekly trading range was 14.23. Fractal Chaos Band – Below its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – negative and falling slope. Medium Cycle Wave – negative and falling slope. Short cycle – negative and falling slope. Market direction:- Strong DownTrend. Momentum – Strong Downwards. RSI – 22.7.

Gold futures (GC) closed at 1528.9 with a huge bearish candle above its 50 SMA, 200 SMA and above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA. Weekly trading range was 200.3. Fractal Chaos Band – closed within its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – positive and falling slope. Medium Cycle Wave – positive and falling slope. Short cycle – negative and falling slope. Market direction:- Strong UpTrend. Momentum – Weak Downward. RSI – 49.6.

Bonds (Weekly charts)
Bond futures (/ZB) closed at 176’15 with a big bearish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA, 200 SMA. Weekly trading range was 19.53. Fractal Chaos Band – Closed above its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – positive and rising. Medium Cycle Wave – positive and rising. Short cycle – positive and falling. Market direction:- Strong UpTrend. Momentum – Strong Upward. RSI – 73.3.

High Yield bond ETF (HYG) gapped down and closed at 80.05 with a huge doji candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Weekly trading range – 8.82. Fractal Chaos Band – closed below its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – negative and falling slope. Medium Cycle Wave – negative and falling slope. Short cycle – negative and falling slope. Market direction:- Strong DownTrend. Momentum – Strong Downward. RSI – 18.3.

Currencies (Weekly charts)
The dollar index ($DXY) closed at 98.691 with a ginormous bullish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Weekly trading range – 4.1599. Fractal Chaos Band – Closed within its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – positive and rising slope. Medium Cycle Wave – positive and rising slope. Short cycle – positive and rising slope. Market direction:- Neutral. Momentum – Neutral. RSI – 53.9.

EUR/USD closed at 1.1106 with a huge bearish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and below its 50 SMA, 200 SMA. Weekly trading range – 0.0441. Fractal Chaos Band – Closed within its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – negative and rising slope. Medium Cycle Wave – positive and flat. Short cycle – positive and flat. Market direction:- Weak UpTrend. Momentum – Weak Upward. RSI – 50.4.   

USD/JPY closed at 107.86 with a ginormous bullish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA, 200 SMA. Weekly trading range – 7.3109. Fractal Chaos Band – closed below its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – negative and falling slope. Medium Cycle Wave – negative and falling slope. Short cycle – negative and rising. Market direction:- Strong DownTrend. Momentum – Weak Downward. RSI – 47.5.

Relative Strength – Sectors
On a 3-monthly lookback, the relative strength order of the ETFs are XLP, XLV, XLK, XLI, /ES, SPX, XLF, SPY, XLU, XLB, XLY and XLE respectively.

On a 12-monthly lookback, the relative strength order of the ETFs are XLK, XLP, XLV, XLI, /ES, SPX, XLF, SPY, XLU, XLB, XLY and XLE respectively.

Market Internals
Market Sentiment is bearish. Market Breadth is sloping downwards showing more losers than gainers. Volume Acc/Dis is sloping downwards and showing distribution. Skew is at 132.37. Vix is at 57.83 and Vix futures 54.45.

The Week Ahead
Skew was at 117 on Thursday which is a fat tail event. When it was that low, we can expect the market to rebound which it did. Market internals continue to show bearishness. Skew is normal now. Vix and Vix futures continue to show extreme fear. The prognosis is for the market to remain bearish.

To Your Wealth!
Would you like to learn to trade stocks, Options or Futures? Drop us an email at jefftohch@gmail.com or call +6010 4343 948. If you have been an unsuccessful trader and need personal tutorship, we can provide you with personal coaching to take you to be a profitable trader.


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