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1 April 2020 – Are the Covid-19 curve flattening?

Summary (The Week Ahead)
$DJT – DownTrend. /YM – DownTrend. /RTY – DownTrend. /NQ – DownTrend. /ES – DownTrend.

/CL – DownTrend. /GC – DownTrend. /ZB – UpTrend. $DXY – DownTrend. HYG – DownTrend.

Market Sentiment is Bearish. Market Internals are giving Down Trend signals indicating weakness in the market. Vix has crept up. Skew has dropped below 117. The indices pulled back and looks set to go lower. The indices have switched to a DownTrend signals. The prognosis is for a pullback in the market.

Details

Indices
Dow Transportation gapped down and closed at 7352.58 with a small doji candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA, 200 SMA. Daily trading range is 447.5. Fractal Chaos Band – closed within its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – negative and rising. Medium Cycle Wave – negative and falling. Short Cycle Wave – positive and falling. Market direction – Strong DownTrend. Momentum – Weak Upward. RSI – 39.6.

Dow Industrial gapped down and closed at 20943.51 with a bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Daily trading range – 1132.73. Fractal Chaos Band – closed within its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – negative and rising. Medium Cycle Wave – negative and rising. Short Cycle Wave – positive and falling. Market direction – Strong DownTrend. Momentum – Weak Upward. RSI – 41.7.

Russell 2000 closed at 1071.99 with a bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Daily trading range – 88.506. Fractal Chaos Band – closed within its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – negative and rising. Medium Cycle Wave – negative and falling. Short Cycle Wave – positive and falling. Market direction – Strong DownTrend. Momentum – Weak Upward. RSI – 37.7.

Nasdaq 100 gapped down and closed at 7486.2869 with a bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA, 200 SMA. Daily trading range – 389.53. Fractal Chaos Band – closed within its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – negative and rising. Medium Cycle Wave – negative and falling. Short Cycle Wave – positive and falling. Market direction – Strong DownTrend. Momentum – Weak Upward. RSI – 44.1.

S&P 500 (SPX) gapped down and closed at 2470.50 with a bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Daily trading range – 137.1. Fractal Chaos Band – closed within its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – negative and rising. Medium Cycle Wave – negative and falling. Short Cycle Wave – positive and falling. Market direction – Strong DownTrend. Momentum – Strong Upward. RSI – 41.8.

Metals and Commodities
WTI Crude oil futures (CL) closed at $21.2 per barrel with a small bullish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Daily trading range – 1.65. Fractal Chaos Band – closed within its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – negative and rising. Medium Cycle Wave – negative and rising. Short Cycle Wave – negative and rising. Market direction – Strong DownTrend. Momentum – Neutral. RSI – 26.4.

Gold (/GC) closed at 1603.4 with a bullish candle below its 8 EMA and above its 21 EMA, 50 SMA, 200 SMA. Daily trading range – 36.4. Fractal Chaos Band – closed within its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – positive and falling slope. Medium Cycle Wave – positive and falling slope. Short Cycle Wave – positive and falling slope. Market direction – Weak DownTrend. Momentum – Strong Downward. RSI – 50.

Commodities (DBC) ETF closed at 10.93 with a small bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA, 200 SMA. Daily trading range – 0.34. Fractal Chaos Band – closed within its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – negative and rising. Medium Cycle Wave – negative and falling. Short Cycle Wave – negative and falling. Market direction – Strong DownTrend. Momentum – Neutral. RSI – 27.

Bonds
Bond futures (/ZB) closed at 182’11 with a bullish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA, 200 SMA and FCB upperband. Daily trading range – 3.0937. Fractal Chaos Band – broke above its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – positive and rising. Medium Cycle Wave – positive and rising. Short Cycle Wave – positive and falling. Market direction – Strong UpTrend. Momentum – Strong Upward. RSI – 63.1. Squeeze – Yes.

High Yield bond ETF (HYG) gapped down and closed at 74.58 with a small bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Daily trading range – 2.7. Fractal Chaos Band – closed within its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – negative and rising. Medium Cycle Wave – negative and falling. Short Cycle Wave – positive and falling. Market direction – Strong DownTrend. Momentum – Strong Upward. RSI – 40.2.

Currency
The dollar index ($DXY) closed at 98.476 with a bullish candle below its 8 EMA and above its 21 EMA, 50 SMA, 200 SMA. Daily trading range – 0.9309. Fractal Chaos Band – closed within its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – positive and falling. Medium Cycle Wave – positive and rising. Short Cycle Wave – negative and rising. Market direction – Weak DownTrend. Momentum – Weak Downward. RSI – 51.8.


EUR/USD closed at 1.0959 with a bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Daily trading range – 0.0136. Fractal Chaos Band – closed within its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – negative and rising. Medium Cycle Wave – positive and falling. Short Cycle Wave – positive and falling. Market direction – Neutral. Momentum – Weak Upward. RSI – 47.5.

USD/JPY closed at 107.11 with a bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Daily trading range – 1.022. Fractal Chaos Band – closed within its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – negative and falling. Medium Cycle Wave – negative and falling. Short Cycle Wave – negative and falling. Market direction – Strong DownTrend. Momentum – Strong Downward. RSI – 46.

Relative Strength – Sectors On a 3-monthly lookback, the relative strength order of the S&P ETF 500 sectors are XLV, XLP, XLU, /ES, XLK, XLY, SPX, SPY, XLI, XLB, XLF and XLE.

On a 12-monthly lookback, the relative strength order of the S&P 500 ETFs are XLV, XLP, XLU, /ES, XLK, XLY, SPX, SPY, XLI, XLB, XLF and XLE.  

Market Internals
Market Sentiment – Bearish. Put/Call ratio is now at 1.159. Market Breadth – sloping downward showing more losers than gainers. Volume Acc/Dis – sloping downward and showing distribution. Vix – 57.06 and Vix Futures – 48.25. Skew – 115.48.

To Your Wealth!
Would you like to learn to trade stocks, Options or Futures? Drop us an email at jefftohch@gmail.com or call +6010 4343 948. If you have been an unsuccessful trader and need personal tutorship, we can provide you with personal coaching to take you to be a profitable trader.


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