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3 April 2020 – Weekly Review – Indices retraced back down

Market Internals
Market Sentiment is Bearish. Market Breadth is sloping slightly downward showing more losers than gainers. Volume Acc/Dis is sloping downward indicating distribution. Skew is at 120.57. Vix is at 46.80 and Vix futures 45.10.

Summary (The Week Ahead)
Despite all the bearish news on unemployment like 6.6 new unemployment claims, the market ended up slightly bearish. With the US$ 2.2 Trillion in hand, it is hard to be too bearish on the market even as the unemployment claims is expected to increase substantially. The huge spike in the claims is seen as short term and hence the market is factoring on events further ahead.

The indices closed lower for the week and continues to be in a Bear market.

Indices (Weekly chart)
Dow Transportation ($DJT) closed at 7305.31. Weekly trading range – 652.61. Fractal Chaos Band – closed within its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – negative and falling. Medium Cycle Wave – negative and falling. Short Cycle Wave – negative and falling. Market direction – Strong DownTrend. Momentum – Strong Downward. RSI28.1. It closed at 37.1% below its all-time high. It is in Bear Market Territory.

Dow Industrial ($DJI) closed at 21052.53. Weekly trading range – 1745.35. Fractal Chaos Band – closed below its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – negative and falling. Medium Cycle Wave – negative and falling. Short cycle Wave – negative and rising. Market direction – Strong DownTrend. Momentum – Strong Downward. RSI31.3. It closed at 28.8% below its all-time high. It is in Bear Market Territory.

Russell 2000 closed at 1052.053. Weekly trading range – 129.24. Fractal Chaos Band – closed within its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – negative and falling slope. Medium Cycle Wave – negative and falling slope. Short Cycle Wave – negative and falling slope. Market direction – Strong DownTrend. Momentum – Strong Downward. RSI25.8. It closed at 39.6% below its all-time high. It is in a Bear market.       

Nasdaq 100 closed at 7528.1138. Weekly trading range – 587.626. Fractal Chaos Band – Below its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – negative and falling. Medium Cycle Wave – negative and falling. Short cycle – negative and falling. Market direction – Strong DownTrend. Momentum – Strong Downward. RSI – 39.3. The Nasdaq closed at 22.6 % below its all-time high. It is in a Bear Market.

S&P 500 (SPX) closed at 2488.65. Weekly trading range – 193.9. Fractal Chaos Band – Below its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – negative and falling. Medium Cycle Wave – negative and falling. Short cycle Wave – negative and falling. Market direction – Strong DownTrend. Momentum – Strong Downward. RSI – 32.4.

Metals and Commodities (Weekly charts)
WTI Crude oil futures (CL) closed at $29 per barrel. Weekly trading range was 9.86. Fractal Chaos Band – Below its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – negative and falling slope. Medium Cycle Wave – negative and falling slope. Short cycle – negative and falling slope. Market direction:- Strong DownTrend. Momentum – Strong Downwards. RSI – 29.5.

Gold futures (GC) closed at 1648.8. Weekly trading range was 97.6. Fractal Chaos Band – closed within its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – positive and rising slope. Medium Cycle Wave – positive and rising slope. Short cycle – positive and rising slope. Market direction:- Strong UpTrend. Momentum – Neutral. RSI – 59.7.

Bonds (Weekly charts)
Bond futures (/ZB) closed at 182’07. Weekly trading range was 4.125. Fractal Chaos Band – Closed within its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – positive and rising. Medium Cycle Wave – positive and rising. Short cycle – positive and flat. Market direction:- Strong UpTrend. Momentum – Weak Upward. RSI – 77.9.

High Yield bond ETF (HYG) closed at 73.55. Weekly trading range – 4.72. Fractal Chaos Band – closed below its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – negative and falling slope. Medium Cycle Wave – negative and falling slope. Short cycle – negative and rising slope. Market direction:- Strong DownTrend. Momentum – Strong Downward. RSI – 29.9.

Currencies (Weekly charts)
The dollar index ($DXY) closed at 100.682. Weekly trading range – 2.5639. Fractal Chaos Band – Closed within its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – positive and rising slope. Medium Cycle Wave – positive and falling slope. Short cycle – positive and falling slope. Market direction:- Strong UpTrend. Momentum – Strong Upward. RSI – 57.

EUR/USD closed at 1.0793. Weekly trading range – 0.037. Fractal Chaos Band – Closed within its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – negative and falling slope. Medium Cycle Wave – negative and falling . Short cycle – negative and falling. Market direction:- Strong DownTrend. Momentum – Strong Downward. RSI – 44.1.   

USD/JPY closed at 108.50. Weekly trading range – 1.8079. Fractal Chaos Band – closed within its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – positive and flat. Medium Cycle Wave – negative and flat. Short cycle – positive and flat. Market direction:- Strong DownTrend. Momentum – Strong Upward. RSI – 49.4.

Relative Strength – Sectors
On a 3-monthly lookback, the relative strength order of the ETFs are XLP, XLV, XLU, XLK, /ES, SPY, SPX, XLI, XLY, XLB, XLE and XLE respectively.

On a 12-monthly lookback, the relative strength order of the ETFs are XLP, XLV, XLK, /ES, SPY, SPX, XLI, XLY, XLB, XLE and XLF respectively.

To Your Wealth!
Would you like to learn to trade stocks, Options or Futures? Drop us an email at jefftohch@gmail.com or call +6010 4343 948. If you have been an unsuccessful trader and need personal tutorship, we can provide you with personal coaching to take you to be a profitable trader.

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