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30 April 2020 – Economic data catches up to the market

Summary (The Week Ahead)
$DJTUpTrend. /YMUpTrend. /RTYUpTrend. /NQUpTrend. /ESUpTrend.

/CL DownTrend. /GC – UpTrend. /ZB – UpTrend and in a preliminary Squeeze. $DXY – DownTrend and in a Squeeze. HYGUpTrend.

Market Internals
Market SentimentBullish. Put/Call ratio – 0.817. Market Breadth – sloping upward showing more gainers than losers. Volume Acc/Dis – sloping upward and showing accumulation. Vix – 34.15 and Vix Futures – 35.60. Skew – 130.38.

Economic data finally catches up to the market. The indices pulled back and surprisingly, US Treasure bond pulled back as well. Gold pulled back as well. Gold has pulled back below 1700. Market Sentiment is bullish. Market internals are showing bullishness. Overall, the market is giving bullish signals. The HYG which is the ETF for high yield bonds made gains even as the indices were pulling back. The prognosis is for a Bullish market to continue.

Intermarket Analysis
WTI Crude oil futures (CL) closed at $19.09. Daily trading range – 4.09. Fractal Chaos Band – closed within its FCB. Market direction – Weak DownTrend. Momentum – Strong Upward. RSI – 46.2.

Gold (/GC) closed at 1693.1. Daily trading range – 49.5. Fractal Chaos Band – closed within its FCB. Market direction – Neutral. Momentum – Strong Downward. RSI – 50.2.

Commodities (DBC) ETF closed at 10.90. Fractal Chaos Band – closed within its FCB. Market direction – Weak DownTrend. Momentum – Weak Upward. RSI – 40.8.

Bonds
Bond futures (/ZB) closed at 180’18. Daily trading range – 1.875. Fractal Chaos Band – closed within its FCB. Market direction – Weak UpTrend. Momentum – Strong Downward. RSI – 54.8. It is in a preliminary Squeeze.

High Yield bond ETF (HYG) closed at 80.43. Daily trading range – 1.03. Fractal Chaos Band – closed above its FCB. Market direction – Strong UpTrend. Momentum – Strong Upward. RSI – 55.2.

Currency
The dollar index ($DXY) closed at 99.039. Daily trading range – 0.9199. Fractal Chaos Band – closed within its FCB. Market direction – Strong DownTrend. Momentum – Strong Downward. RSI – 44.9.


EUR/USD closed at 1.0950. Daily trading range – 0.0139. Fractal Chaos Band – closed within FCB. Market direction – Strong UpTrend. Momentum – Strong Upward. RSI – 53.9.

USD/JPY closed at 107.15. Daily trading range – 1.0929. Fractal Chaos Band – closed below its FCB. Market direction – Strong DownTrend. Momentum – Weak Downward. RSI – 44.6.

Relative Strength – Sectors On a 3-monthly lookback, the relative strength order of the S&P ETF 500 sectors are XLV, XLY, XLK, XLP, XLB, SPX, SPY, /ES, XLU, XLE, XLI and XLF.

On a 12-monthly lookback, the relative strength order of the S&P 500 ETFs are XLV, XLY, XLK, XLP, SPX, SPY, XLB, /ES, XLU, XLI, XLF and XLE.  


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