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11 May 2020 – Volatility and Indecision!

Summary (The Week Ahead)
$DJTDownTrend and in preliminary Squeeze. /YMUpTrend and in a Squeeze. /RTYUpTrend and in a preliminary Squeeze. /NQUpTrend and in a preliminary Squeeze. /ESUpTrend and in a Squeeze.

The bears and bulls are fighting it out for the direction of the market. Volatility is getting compressed.

/CL UpTrend and in a preliminary Squeeze. /GC – DownTrend and in a Squeeze. /ZB – DownTrend and in Squeeze. HYG – UpTrend and in a preliminary Squeeze. DBC – UpTrend.

$DXYUpTrend and in a Squeeze. EUR/USD – DownTrend and in a Squeeze. USD/JPY – UpTrend and in a preliminary Squeeze.

Market Internals
Market Sentiment – Bullish. Put/Call ratio – 0.702. Market Breadth – sloping upward showing more gainers than losers. Volume Acc/Dis – sloping Upward and showing accumulation. Long term volume trend is still showing accumulation. Vix – 27.57 and Vix Futures – 28.85. Skew – 129.10.

The Squeezes in the indices indicating that a big move is coming up.

Bond market is trading downward. Gold has pulled back just below US$1700. Market Internals are indicating bullishness. HYG which is the ETF for high yield bonds is trading sideways indicating that the market is risk adverse. The prognosis is for a continuing bullish market although the bears are challenging that.

Relative Strength – Sectors.

On a 3-monthly lookback, the relative strength order of the S&P ETF 500 sectors are XLK, XLV, XLY, SPX, SPY, /ES, XLB, XLP, XLE, XLU, XLI and XLF.

On a 12-monthly lookback, the relative strength order of the S&P 500 ETFs are XLV, XLK, XLY, SPX, SPY, XLP, /ES, XLB, XLU, XLI, XLE and XLF.  


To Your Wealth!
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